Christmas Wishlist: Western Conference

This post comes a little bit late, but the holiday season has been wildly busy for me. I am also without my usual editor pushing me to write, so I’ll have to admit that some of this has been laziness. I hope you guys are enjoying what I’ve been putting out so far. A big thanks to everyone that’s been reading along.

Without further ado, I give you the second half of my Christmas Wish List column.


Northwest Division


Denver Nuggets:

What they want:

Kenyon Martin’s contract is one of the most ridiculous in the business but at least he’s putting up something close to his career numbers. Even though the Nuggets have been good since acquiring Billups (recent slide notwithstanding), Carmelo Anthony is a shell of his former self. How can he be putting up the worst numbers of his career with an unselfish distributor like Billups? It just doesn’t make any sense

What they will get:

The Nuggets got away with highway robbery in the Iverson deal. Billups was exactly what this team needed and with Nene healthier than ever, the Nuggets will cruise to 50 wins. Unfortunately, I can’t see a way in which they get past the Lakers in the West, but they’re a whole lot closer than they were at the start of the season.


Portland Trailblazers:

What they want:

For their inexperienced young core to gain the experience necessary to contend for a championship. All the pieces are there, it’s just a question of playing together, and in the playoffs for a year or two before they are ready to win it all. The only other real concern is the health of Greg Oden. If Oden stays healthy (and figures out a way to stop committing almost 4 fouls a game), the Trailblazers are a terrifying team

What they’ll get:

Probably the happiest first round exit in league history. Things are so bright for Portland with the Roy-Aldridge-Fernandez-Oden core that it’s just a matter of time. Everyone who follows the NBA knows it, it’s virtually inevitable. Especially if Oden stays healthy, pencil them in as early contenders for 2010 and 2011.


Utah Jazz:

What they want:

To continue to fly under the radar while their team gets healthy. The Jazz are absolutely loaded in their depth, with only the Lakers surpassing them. When Carlos Boozer is back and healthy, the Jazz are a very scary team. They are so good at home that they need a top four finish in order to take advantage of those crazy Mormon fans.

What they will get:

The quietest 55 win season in NBA history. Everyone is so focused on the Big Three, Portland, Orlando and the reborn Nuggets that Utah is getting almost no coverage. The Jazz will be around until the final 8 at very least, if not the final 4.


Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder:

These two teams depress me so much I made the executive decision to combine their sections into one. It’s my blog, so I’ll do what I want.

First off, the Thunder shouldn’t even be in Oklahoma City. Seattle got absolutely jobbed. Secondly, Kevin McHale must have incriminating pictures of someone high up in the Timberwolves organization to still have his job. If it wasn’t for Kevin Durant and, to a lesser extent, Al Jefferson, there would be nothing positive to write about these two teams. May God have mercy on their fans.


Pacific Division:


L.A Lakers:

What they want:

The Lakers got exactly what they wanted with an impressive win over a Celtics team that was on an absolute rampage. Although they couldn’t stop KG or Pierce, they did a great job of keeping Allen and Rondo in check. Really, any Lakers fan is pretty happy already

What they will get:

I still wonder if the Lakers will be able to consistently play at the level that they demonstrated against Boston. This is a team that has been sleep-walking lately and lack of motivation is a scary thing. I still think they are so talented that they will cruise in the West but I don’t feel quite as good about them as I did at the outset of the season.


Phoenix Suns:

What they want:

A little more cohesion on a team with a lot of talent would be nice. If Shaquille O’Neal morphed into himself from 20 years ago, that would help too. Their management want them to slow the game down and play a half-court game. I don’t think the same can be said for a large part of their roster.

What they will get:

Rolling to dice to get the Diesel was a risky move and right now it seems to blowing up in the Suns’ face. Their offense is still plenty deadly, they are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency, but their defense is not a whole lot better despite Terry Porter’s claims to the contrary. I hate to say it, but the Suns are losing ground in the West fast. They will finish 7th or 8th and bow out in the first round


L.A Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings:

Once again, my blog, so I’ll do what I want. These three teams are all going pretty much nowheresville this season. For everyone’s talk about how strong the West is, the top teams’ records benefit greatly from having some really terrible teams to pick on.

The Clippers’ roster is a dysfunctional mess. Zach Randolph and Baron Davis, their two marquee players, are completely incompatible. Asking Randolph to run the court is futile. The Clippers want to stay relevant in L.A. I think they need to engineer a major rebuild for that to happen

Golden State is a team that plays the run and gun, but is actually a pretty terrible shooting team. Their three leading scorers, Jackson, Maggette and Crawford are all shooting less than 42 percent. Wow. They want to outscore every team they play. They won’t do that until they unload at least a couple of their gunners. At least they still have Andris Biedrins.

The Sacramento Kings’ page on ESPN.com still features Ron Artest. Here, see for yourself: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac (He’s pictured dribbling the ball in the top left corner). I think that says just about everything about the kind of season the Kings are having.


Southwest Division:


San Antonio Spurs:

What they want:

Get everyone healthy for the playoffs. With Tim Duncan, Greg Popovich, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs always have a shot to win it all. The Spurs are kind of boring to write about, but you have to respect their skill. As a basketball fan, I don’t really like them, but I do admire them.

What they will get:

I think the Spurs make it to the quarterfinals, but this is the year that their bench depth fails them. After the amazing Roger Mason, there isn’t a whole lot going for them. All that being said, never, ever, bet against Tim Duncan.


New Orleans Hornets:

What they want:

They don’t just want, they desperately need Peja Stojakovic to make their team work. For all of Chris Paul’s brilliance and David West’s skill as a scorer, the Hornets require Peja’s outside shooting to make their offense work.

What they will get:

A healthy Peja makes New Orleans a definite threat to the Lakers. Chris Paul is such a dominating guard that I can envision them taking down the Lakers and they are the only team in the West I can say that about.


Houston Rockets:

What they want:

Tracy McGrady needs to remember that he’s a good basketball player. He is ruining the Rockets, and that’s not an exaggeration in any way. They still play good defense but they need T-Mac to win in the playoffs.

What they will get:

They’re stuck in this glut of teams right below the Lakers. Like the Hornets, Jazz, Spurs and Nuggets, they have a chance to win the West, but only an outside shot. If T-Mac is over the hill, they are out in the first round. If he can find the fountain of youth, they could go to the Conference Finals or maybe even the finals.


Dallas Mavericks:

What they want:

Jason Kidd needs to revive his career just long enough to get the Mavericks through the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is still one of the league’s absolute best players, Jason Terry has been fantastic off the bench and Josh Howard has been solid but they need Kidd to run the point and distribute the ball.

What they will get:

The Kidd trade may have seemed like a good idea at the time but now he looks like he has to take Advil to get out of bed every morning. If Kidd doesn’t get rejuvenated in a real hurry, the Mavericks are doomed to a first round exit.


Memphis Grizzlies:

At least they have the Gay-Mayo combo. That’s about it.

Christmas Wishlist: Eastern Conference

In the spirit of the holiday season, it’s time to look at what each NBA team wants for Christmas. Unfortunately for some of these teams, there is no Santa in the NBA to bring them yuletide cheer. They are stuck with cold, hard reality. I’ll go through the teams by division in the Eastern Conference today and then the Western Conference on Friday.

Atlantic Division:

Boston Celtics:

What they want:

A victory over the Lakers in their marquee Christmas Day matchup would the icing on the cake of a season that has gone absolutely perfectly so far. Everything else has gotten absolutely perfectly. They have practically clinched a playoff berth already with a 13 and a half (!!) game lead over 9th place Chicago. Their season won’t really start until the playoffs

What they’ll get:

I wouldn’t bet against Boston winning tomorrow or making a return trip to the finals. As good as Cleveland and L.A have been, Boston has to be the favourite right now. Boston’s been good and Santa is going to reward them


New Jersey Nets:

What they want:

The continued speedy development of Brook Lopez and the sustained play at a ridiculously high level by Devin Harris. It would also be nice if they could get out of the Swamp.

What they’ll get:

The Nets are playing a whole lot better than pretty well anybody expected and a lot of that has to do with Devin Harris morphing into an unstoppable slashing guard. I see no reason for that to stop any time soon. Lopez has looked good in the action that he’s seen but he’s not the third scoring option they so desperately need. Much to Jay-Z’s dismay, they ain’t leaving New Jersey any time soon


Philadelphia 76ers:

What they want:

Elton Brand to live up to the massive contract they signed him to in the offseason. Someone who can make a 15 foot jumper when Brand is getting quintuple teamed in the low post.

What they’ll get:

It’s too early to make definitive judgements with regards to the Brand signing, but it does seem like they are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole. Brand is a half-court, post-up player who demands double teams. The 76ers succeeded last year because they ran like crazy and their high flyers made easy baskets in transition and thus masked their horrifying inability to make outside shots. As long as they don’t have any outside shooting, 76ers fans will be stuck watching their team trying to fast break with four players while Brand lags back court


New York Knicks:

What they want:

For LeBron to openly declare that he is coming to the Big Apple in the summer of 2010. If Nate Robinson and David Lee continue having career years to distract from the facts that the Knicks are THROWING THIS SEASON that would help ease the transition. But mostly just the LeBron thing.

What they’ll get:

LeBron is way too business savvy to tip his hand with regards to 2010. There has been a lot of speculation concerning his love of NYC but, at least for now, I can’t see him making a choice one way or another. Knicks fans, you can only hope these next two years of suffering aren’t for naught.


Toronto Raptors:

What they want:

An athletic swingman would be nice. Some secondary scoring to help Chris Bosh out a little would be appreciated. If things keep going as they are, it might be best to wish for a swift, merciful end to the season.

What they’ll get:

Another wasted all-star season from Chris Bosh. Jermaine O’Neal has been a bust so far and his contract is becoming burdensome. Jose Calderon has played well at times, but not quite at the level that some expected. Andrea Bargnani....well, you get the idea. Things aren’t getting better any time soon. Get ready for a big lump of coal.



Central Division:

Cleveland Cavaliers:

What they want:

To win an NBA title either this season or next in order to convince LeBron to stay. To that end, for the Celtics to stop being so damn good and ruining their chances of winning the Larry O’Brian Trophy.

What they’ll get:

Another fantastic season, and perhaps the first MVP trophy of many to come from LeBron. Unfortunately, what really matters is the playoffs and Boston is still the team to beat, despite Cleveland’s outstanding start. Will LeBron stay or will he go? I have no idea.


Detroit Pistons:

What they want:

To have a do-over on the Billups-Iverson trade. A return to form for Rasheed Wallace and some more minutes for Rodney Stuckey.

What they’ll get:

The Pistons must have made the Iverson trade with the goal of clearing cap space for 2010 because they could not be a worse fit for A.I. He has slowed a step and his perimeter defence has greatly deteriorate. Rasheed Wallace might be over the hill by now, he’s 34, and he isn’t getting any younger. Stuckey has looked pretty okay, but nothing to write home about this season. Joe Dumars and co. are hoping to land a big free agent to go along with Prince and Hamilton, but what those two need above all else is a high quality point guard who will get them the ball. They just traded that away. Maybe Dumars sees something I don't. Regardless, things are not looking so bright.


Milwaukee Bucks:

What they want:

To have Michael Redd stay healthy and start making jumpers again. To have Ramon Sessions continue to develop and eventually replace Luke Ridnour. A player who can create his own shot.

What they’ll get:

Richard Jefferson continuing to eat up more than 13 million in salary while shooting 42 percent from the field. Yikes. Another .500 record and a battle for the 8th playoff spot in the East. At least the Packers are good and Brett Favre is leading them to glory again. Oh wait.


Chicago Bulls:

What they want:

Considering how well Derrick Rose has turned out, I don’t think the Bulls can ask for much more. I guess if Luol Deng lived up to his mega-deal that would be nice, but I think Bulls fans are so euphoric from the arrival of Rose that everything else seems trivial.

What they’ll get:

The Bulls are another team with a chance a shot at the 8th spot in the East and not much else. I don’t think this season matters too much, the Bulls will have their chances in the coming years.


Indiana Pacers:

What they want:

For T.J Ford to do a little more passing and a little less shooting. One more play maker to help Danny Granger out. Right now, the Pacers are Granger, MeJay and a whole lot of role players.

What they’ll get:

A lottery finish and a high draft pick. Danny Granger is someone to build around and maybe they could be something in a couple of years. They aren’t there yet. If someone could talk T.J Ford into passing a bit more, he could be a deadly point guard with his tremendous speed, but I don’t know if that’s possible.


Southeast Division:

Orlando Magic:

What they want:

To contend in the Eastern Conference with Cleveland and Boston. For Jameer Nelson to continue to have a career year and good health for Mickael Pietrus.

What they’ll get:

Some people would contend that I have a bone to pick with the Magic based on the fact that I don’t include them in discussions about the NBA’s elite teams. Dwight Howard is a beast and Rashard Lewis is a very good scorer. With the addition of Mickael Pietrus, they now have a lock down defender who can pitch in offensively too. All this points to the Magic being very good but I think too much is riding on Jameer Nelson. If Nelson keeps this pace up all year, they are very close to Boston and Cleveland. If he regresses, they aren’t. Good luck Jameer!


Atlanta Hawks:

What they want:

Josh Smith getting it together would help. He’s been a little off so far this
season. If some people came to watch this exciting basketball, maybe the Phillips Arena wouldn’t seem so much like a morgue.

What they’ll get:

A great up and coming team with a bright future that will contend for years to come. Josh Smith will round back into form and the Hawks will win 45-50 games. Look for Marvin Williams to keep improving...but the fans still won’t show. It is Atlanta we are talking about after all.

Miami Heat:

What they want:

Beasley becoming a viable secondary option behind Wade would improve their chances going forward. Find a willing trade partner for Shawn Marion. I don’t think the Heat need Marion’s skill set as much as they need a true big man.

What they will get:

Dwayne Wade carrying them to a 40-45 win season and hopefully a half decent draft pick. The Heat are still a prime free agent destination, so if they unload Marion for cap room, maybe they make a run at a major free agent.


Charlotte Bobcats:

What they want:

The Bobcats are stuck in a big way. They have one useful player, Gerald Wallace, one player with potential, D.J Augustin, and a whole bunch of role players making way too much money. They need a new team.

What they will get:

Larry Brown trying to murder Sean May with his eyes before the season’s over and at best a 35 win season. Bobcats management has doomed this team for a long time to come. It’s really kind of sad.


Washington Wizards:

I can’t even bring myself to write about the Wizards. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are having good years and everybody else is a catastrophe. I don’t see Arenas’ return as saving this team either. If the Wizards win 25 games this year, it will be a success.

I Love the NBA

After finishing my post on the Big Three, I watched most of the fourth quarter of the Trail Blazers-Suns game. First of all, absolutely fantastic game. Brandon Roy goes off for a career high 52 points and both teams shoot over 50% from the field. Boston, L.A and Cleveland may be the teams this year, but Portland is definitely the team of the future. Second of all, I now love Portland fans. I'm sure most of you have already seen the video of the dancing fans from the highlights, but if you haven't, please check it out. I'll try to post a link to a video tomorrow morning in the a.m.

The Big Three

I hate to take all the suspense out of this engrossing NBA season, but I’ve come upon a truth: only the Celtics, Lakers and Cavaliers have a chance to win the 2009 NBA championship. As of this writing, their combined record stands at 66-9, giving them an outrageous .880 winning percentage. For all three teams to continue winning at this clip seems to be asking a bit much, but I can envision a situation where all three teams win at least 65 games. Boston and Cleveland will be pushing each other all the way down to the wire for the 1st overall seed in the East and the Lakers have the deepest roster in the association.

The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.

The Case for the Lakers:

Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.

The Case for the Celtics:

The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.

The Case for the Cavaliers:

In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.

The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.

With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.


It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.

Quick NBA Thoughts

As the NBA season chugs past the 25 game mark, a separation between the haves and the have-nots is beginning to take place. There are three legitimate juggernauts (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers), ten good teams with a chance of making noise in the playoffs and then everyone else. Twenty-five games into the season, there are thirteen teams that have won eleven games or less. That, my friends, is ugly. On the whole, however, I think the disparity is actually good for the fans. If you are a fan of the Thunder, it’s not much fun to watch your team lose 117-82 to Cleveland, but, as a fan of basketball, the level of play amongst the stronger teams has been an absolute joy to watch. I cannot wait for the L.A-Boston game on Christmas Day. Cleveland – Denver on Friday should be great and the Detroit – Atlanta game on Sunday will be good too. It seems like every day or two, there is a good to great basketball game being played. The game tonight between the Celtics and Hawks was a great example of how much fun a basketball game can be. There was intense play on both ends of the court, skilled players making big shots at the end and the game wasn’t decided until the final buzzer.

I’ve been following the NBA closely for about eight years now and I can’t remember being so excited about the league. There has been a major influx of high quality players in the last five years or so and the level of play has risen accordingly. Even the bad teams have diamonds in the rough. O.J Mayo and Derrick Rose have looked fantastic and Michael Beasley has shown flashes of brilliance. As a Raptors fan, it’s been tough. Their performance against Dallas tonight didn’t exactly give me a lot of hope. Every time I’m down though, I’ll flip to SportsCentre and see a clip of LeBron James absolutely destroying the rim on a fast break. I am immediately reminded of why I love basketball.

On Thursday, I’ll have an in-depth post up about the big three and why I think no one else will challenge for the title.

Burnett Flies the Coop

A.J Burnett’s signing with the Yankees this past weekend was an important moment for the Toronto Blue Jays and their plans for 2009 and beyond. On Friday, Burnett and the Yankees agreed on a 5 year, 82.5 million dollar contract. Losing Burnett will hurt the Blue Jays, he put together an outstanding stretch to close out the season. The question boils down to this: is losing Burnett for the amount of money the Yankees paid him a major loss or not? The answer is, surprisingly, not that clear.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.

All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.

The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.

Proven Wrong

So I write my first piece of the re-launch about how the Raptors are not destined for greatness and they go out and slap New Jersey around to the tune of 101-79. Sure makes me look an idiot. In this case, I hope I'm wrong.

Evaluating the Raptors

It may be early in the season but it’s not too soon to begin passing judgment on the Toronto Raptors. There are two ways to look at their performance so far. They are either a good team that is vastly underperforming or they are a team that entered the season with unrealistically high expectations. I think the answer is closer to the latter than it is to the former. They aren’t as bad as their record would indicate but they also aren’t going to be winning 50 games with the roster they have. So far, the Raptors have received outstanding play from one player (Chris Bosh), very good play from another (Jose Calderon) and very little of value from anyone else.

As a team, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are giving up 102.0 points per game and, more tellingly, rank 23^rd overall in defensive efficiency. The reasons for this are myriad but come down primarily to two: weak perimeter defending and an inability to rebound. One of their two best offensive players, Jose Calderon, is being torched by every player he guards. When Calderon gets beat, someone has to come with help and smart point guards are kicking it out to wide open shooters. Also, their best outside shooter, and someone they desperately need on the floor to really make their offense click, couldn’t guard me. If Jason Kapono could just stay in front of his man once in a while, he could play more meaningful minutes and be the shooter they so desperately need.

Their failure to rebound is pretty remarkable considering they often play a lineup with three 7 footers in it. The stats don’t lie though: the Raptors are 23^rd in defensive rebound rate. Games against Orlando and Boston in particular have produced lopsided rebounding lines. I would suggest the main problem here can once again be tied to the perimeter defense. When penetration occurs there has to be help from one of the big men. If a rebound comes from the shot attempt, the big men are out of position because they came to help.

With such poor defending, the Raptors would have to be scoring at a prodigious rate to be winning their fair share of games. Unfortunately, they are not. They are only 20^th in the league in offensive efficiency. Chris Bosh is having an absolutely outstanding season but Andrea Bargnani has not taken the step forward the team needs him to. He has been more aggressive in bringing the ball to the basket, but he is still taking a lot of ill-advised jumpers. For that matter, Jermaine O’Neal has been a bit of a disappointment offensively and Anthony Parker has been atrocious. Overall, Parker is shooting less than 40% from the field.

All in all, not a lot of bright spots for the Raptors so far this season. The emergence of Chris Bosh as a bonafide superstar is about all Raps fans have to cheer for. I don’t think the outlook is all doom and gloom though. Bargnani has shown flashes of brilliance, if maddening inconsistency with his jumper and the play of Joey Graham in recent games has been nothing short of a revelation. That being said, their entire fate rests on the shoulders of Jermaine O’Neal. If O’Neal can find his way back to his form from ’05-06 when he averaged 20 points a game while shooting 47 percent from the field, the Raptors will make it to 45 wins or so. If he doesn’t get back to that, or, more likely, if he gets hurt again, the Raptors will struggle to 40. The coach has been thrown under the bus. The clock is now ticking on the man who assembled the team. Eighteen months ago, when the Raptors were fresh off their first Atlantic Division title, seems so long ago now.

I'm Coming Back...

I've decided to dust the cobwebs off this baby and get it back into gear. I'm changing the format slightly to be an all-sports blog. First post will be up later tonight. This is going to be fun.

Second Half Review and Preview, Part II: N.L

The second part of my season in review is upon us. I hope you all are enjoying the site’s change in appearance. I’m going for something of a minimalist look these days. I’ve been really pleased with how many people have been checking my work out, so if you like what you’re seeing so far, please tell a friend.

We’ll kick things off in the National League’s East division.

N.L EAST:

It used to be that you could count on three things in life: Death, taxes and the Atlanta Braves winning the N.L East. However, those days now seem long gone. Unless there is a minor miracle, this will be the third consecutive season that a team other than the Braves has won the N.L East after more than a decade of Atlanta supremacy. The Phillies and Mets look poised to do battle all the way until the very end of the year with Atlanta and Florida fighting to stay at .500. The Washington Nationals will just get their asses handed to them.

The knock on the Phillies has always been that they live and die by their offense, slugging out 10-9 wins. This year, that isn’t actually true. Their offense has remained impressive, ranking 2^nd in the N.L in runs scored, but their pitching has actually held its own with a team ERA of 3.90. It would surprise no one then that the Phillies have the second best run differential in the N.L and fourth best in all of baseball. Put two and two together and you’ve got to believe the Phillies are going to make a run in the second half. With their three headed monster in Burrell, Utley and Howard, the Phillies should never be short for runs. Now that the pitching staff has got it together, thanks to Cole Hamels and a ridiculous bullpen, I expect the Phillies to wind up around 95 wins.

After last year’s epic collapse, the Mets felt they had no choice to shake things up. Bringing in the best pitcher in all of baseball is a pretty good way to shake things up. The Mets started the season as if they were half asleep but since that time, they’ve turned things around nicely. The pitching is humming along with a team ERA of 3.95 and they are 4^th in the N.L in runs at 460. Johan has been great (2.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and the supporting cast has been good enough to keep the Mets close until the bullpen can come in and do their job. Wagner, Schoeneweiss, Feliciano and Joe Smith are all having solid seasons out of the ‘pen. The offensive work is done mostly by David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltra. After a less than stellar year in 2007, it’s nice to see Reyes really getting it done this year. I think the Mets really get it going in the second half fight the Phillies tooth and nail to 95 wins.

The Braves and Marlins should fight closely for the third spot. The Marlins have a very promising young core with Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham, Cody Ross, Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs all under the age of 30. If they could just find some pitching to help Ricky Norasco and Scott Olsen, who have been solid if unspectacular, they could turn this division into a three horse race. I think we’ll hear from Florida again soon.

The Braves, meanwhile, continue their slow slide into oblivion. Jair Jurrens and Tim Hudson has kept their pitching near the top of the N.L but their offense is a three man show: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira. Everyone else on the Braves has, well, failed to hit the ball. Gregor Blanco and Jeff Francoeur in particular have been doing more harm than good. With Hudson and Jones aging, I think this season is only the tip of the iceberg. The Braves will barely make it to 80 wins this year and probably less in the years to come.

The Washington Nationals...no. Just ,no.

N.L CENTRAL:

The Central is home to probably the best team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs, a couple of wild card contenders, Milwaukee Brewers and St.Louis Cardinals, and then a whole bunch of nobodies. The Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros all have approximately a zero percent chance of winning the division. They might even have a negative chance, if it were possible.

The Cubs have just about everything going for them right now. They have the best offense in the N.L as well as the third best pitching staff by team ERA. And that was before they added flamethrower Rich Harden. Ever since Jim Edmonds drank from the Holy Grail, how else has his miraculous turn around really been possible, the Cubs are boasting 6, 6!, regulars with OPS over .830. (For the suffering Blue Jays fans out there, we don’t have a single, not one, hitter with an OPS over .830. Woo! Go jays!). I don’t think Ryan Dempster will keep pitching a full run below his career ERA but if Harden stays healthy, there is no way the Cubs don’t win 100 games and probably the National Leage. It’s a good time to be a Cubs fan.

The Brewers and Cardinals may not really challenge the Cubs, but they should wage a good battle for the Wild Card. The Cardinals are getting another monstrous season from Albert Pujols but a lot of their success is due to the surprising play of Ryan Ludwick and the resurgence of Troy Glaus. Besides Kyle Lohse and his surprising 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre. For this reason, I can’t see the Cardinals holding off the Brewers down the homestretch. They are simply too thin pitching-wise. The Cardinals will finish with 85-90 wins, well above what any reasonable person could have expected from them at the start of the year.

With the addition of CC Sabathia, the Brew Crew is going to win the Wild Card. I’m calling it now. Their offensive core, with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and J.J Hardy will score runs. Fielder, in fact, is still performing below his career averages and I think he’ll keep getting better as the season goes on. Ben Sheets, and now CC, will provide superb pitching and Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will be just decent enough to win some games. Their bullpen has also received some stellar performances from Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres. If those two keep their career years going, there’s nothing else stopping Milwaukee.

The other three teams in the N.L Central all have some strong suits but glaring weaknesses. The Pirates score a ton of runs, but also sport a team ERA of 5.24. That is unsightly. Cincinnati and Houston are only marginally better with 4.43 and 4.49 respectively. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at least have light at the end of tunnel with young stars like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit for the Pirates and Edison Volquez, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips for the Reds. The Astros are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and a bunch of spare parts. Even Roy Oswalt has been underwhelming this year. It’s a tough time to be an Astros fan.

N.L WEST:

The West has been the worst division in baseball. The division leading Diamondbacks are under .500. The second place Dodgers are 46-49 and still well within range of a division title. Hell, even the 40-55 Giants could make a claim to have playoff aspirations. San Diego’s 37-58 record leaves them only 10 games out of first.

The Diamondbacks are the team with the most hope of this sorry lot. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are superb pitchers. The team pitching has been very respectable on the whole, with a 3.92 team ERA. The offense, however, has not. Chris Young and Eric Byrnes have been terrible and no one is having a particularly stellar season to replace them. Conor Jackson is having the best of them but while his .846 OPS is strong, it’s nothing to write home about. The Diamondbacks, with their current rotation in which the mummified body of Randy Johnson is pitching 200 innings per season, are a big bat away from breaking out. I think they finish in the 85 win range on the back of Haren and Webb. They’ll win the division of crappiness.

The Dodgers have two of the worst contracts in all of baseball: Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Their other major problem: this guy has 107 at-bats, this guy has 266 and this guy has 285. That, my friends, is a lot of outs. If it wasn’t for their pitching, N.L leading 3.64 ERA, this team would be absolutely nowhere. They are, in a lot of ways, the Toronto Blue Jays of the National League. The only difference between the two teams is the division they play in. In the A.L East, a sub 500 record gets you fourth place and fans calling for the G.M’s head. In the N.L West, you have a great shot at a division title. The Dodgers will fall in the 80-85 win range and just miss the playoffs behind the Diamondbacks.

The San Francisco Giants have Tim Lincecum and that’s about it. Jose Sanchez and Matt Cain have shown signs of promise but nothing to indicate a great turn around any time soon. The Giants need to revamp their entire offense before they get anywhere. They’ll win about 70 games this year.

The feel-good stories of last year, the Colorado Rockies, are not feeling so good this year. Matt Holliday is having another monster season, .975 OPS, and the Rockies are scoring runs in bunches. Their pitching, however, has been terrifying to watch. Aaron Cook is the only one doing respectable work. His 3.57 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are both career bests, but no one else in their starting rotation has an ERA below 4. Most notably, Jeff Francis has been beaten around to the tune of a 5.17 ERA. It’s amazing how a 22 game winning streak makes people forget you don’t have any pitching.

Did you know that Jake Peavy is having a better season offensively than the Padres’ starting shortstop and both of their catchers?That about sums their season up. If they make it to 75 wins, it’ll be a miracle.

I hope you guys enjoyed my look into baseball’s first half of the season. I’ll be back with another column Friday evening.

NB

Second Half Review and Preview, Part I: A.L

First off, thank you once again to everyone that has been reading the site so far. It’s been a pleasure writing the articles and I hope you guys have enjoyed reading them. I apologize for the delay in getting this article out. I was planning on writing something short, but it came out as a bit of a magnum opus. I hope you guys like reading about baseball!

As usual, if it so pleases you, leave a comment at the bottom of the article or e-mail me at noheartball@gmail.com. Finally, if you like what I’m doing, tell a friend.

I’ll divide the preview division by division. It’s a fairly in-depth process, with a team by team analysis, so the column will once again appear in two parts. Part I today and Part II on Wednesday. There should be a lot to look forward to in the coming months, so strap yourselves in.

A.L EAST:

The American League East has been one of the most fascinating divisions in all of baseball through the first half of the season. Most people expected the Red Sox and Yankees to run away with the division, with the Blue Jays possibly challenging if you were a deluded member of the Toronto media. However, Tampa Bay has seemingly come out of nowhere to make this interesting. I know they have lost their last 7 games. That is not a good thing. I still think they have a great shot to win 90-95 games and make life miserable for Boston and the Yanks. Their biggest strength is their pitching, which has been uniformly strong. Scott Kazmir, when healthy, has been excellent but James Shields, Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza all surprisingly have sub-4.00 ERAs with reasonable WHIPs. If some of their offensive players like Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford round back into form and Eric Hinske continues his resurrection, the Rays will contend.

I feel I don’t even need to write about the Red Sox and yet I will. When Big Papi comes back, their offense will be stupid good again. J.D Drew, Mike Lowell, Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis have been so good that they are making up for the horrific seasons that Lugo, Ellsbury and in particular Varitek are having. Their pitching is also stacked with Beckett, Dice-K , Papelbon and friends striking fear into the hearts of opposing hitters. It would be a major surprise if the Sawx didn’t run away with the division.

I’ve already a fairly in-depth piece about the Jays, but in case you missed it, I called for 80-84 wins and a fourth place finish in the division. If Halladay is serious about moving on if the Jays don’t build a contender, J.P better get his act together ASAP.

The Orioles are a lot better than I thought they would be. I don’t think they will quite keep up the pace they have set for themselves but the future looks bright with Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones. Markakis in particular has been having a great season to the tune of an .892 OPS and 14 Home Runs. Brian Roberts is also having another solid year, but I can’t help but wonder if the Orioles aren’t wasting his prime years. If they can find some good pitching prospects, they might be well served to make a move. Speaking of the pitching, they need to do something about it. Their lone bright spot has been Jeremy Guthrie and his solid 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. I’ll describe their rest of their pitchers in one word: Yikes. Bonus: Adam Jones profile picture on ESPN.com is pure gold. . How did he let that be put up?

The other perennial power in the A.L East is the New York Yankees. As usual, the Yankees boast some of the highest priced talent in all of baseball. With their offensive talents, their pitching should only have to be mediocre for the Yaks to be powerhouses. The pitching has mostly been there, including notable performances by Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera and the miracle resurrection of Mike Mussina. However, the offensive talent hasn’t quite been performing up to snuff. I’m not suggesting they won’t make a run but a lot of the guys they are paying big bucks are not delivering. The two biggest busts so far are Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, though I will admit Cano has maybe turned the corner. However, the relative underachievement of the Yankees is not just on these two. The skipper himself, Derek Jeter, has played poorly so far this year. A .740 OPS is simply not going to do it when you are being paid 21 million dollars a year. If Jeter, now 34, is in a decline phase, then the Yankees are in big trouble. If he comes back around, maybe they make a run to the playoffs. Giambi and A-Rod are carrying this team so far. Mr. Jeter, the ball is in your court. My guess is they put it together, but maybe not quite all the way and end up in the 90-95 win range.

A.L CENTRAL:

The Central was supposedly going to be a battle between Detroit and Cleveland for supremacy. Today, those predictions seem particularly backwards when one considers Detroit’s .500 record and Cleveland’s not so stellar 41-53 showing. I’ll start with the biggest surprise of the division: the Chicago White Sox. After last year’s debacle, no one expected them to be first in their division this late in the season, not to mention contending for the best record in baseball. The main reason for their success is the pitching staff’s return to its 2005 form. Led by second year starter John Danks and his 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, the White Sox have the second best team ERA in the A.L at a sparkling 3.57. Gavin Floyd and Mark Buerhle have also contributed strong seasons and, until his injury, Bobby Jenks had been solid out of the bullpen. Their offense has been resting mostly on the shoulders of Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin, and Jim Thome. Dye and Thome are proven, if aging, commodities but Quentin has been a bit of a surprise. With no one else having an OPS over .800, and only Nick Swisher as a possible candidate to turn it up in the second half, the Sox will need everything they can get out of Thome, Dye and Quentin. I think they will falter a little along the way and end with around 90 wins.

I will go out on a limb and say that the Twins are a fluke at this stage in the season. They are ridiculously thin offensively, with Morneau and Mauer doing almost all the heavy lifting and their pitching isn’t too hot either. Kevin Slowey, and his magnificent 4.69 K/BB ratio,might one day become the ace that they need, but he’s not quite there yet. Joe Nathan has been his usual spectacular self out of the bullpen but I just don’t see it with these guys. I think in a couple of years Delmon Young might be really good, but he’s not there yet. When he’s been in the lineup, Nick Punto has been solid as well, but again, the Twins are a year or two away. I think they fade and end up with about 80 wins.

Detroit was the team that everyone picked at the start of the season to win the division and maybe even the A.L and then the World Series. They came out of the gate absolutely awfully and have been struggling to recover since then. As would be expected, their pitching has been mediocre at best, ranking 11^th in the A.L in team ERA. However, the team’s overall failure so far can be directly attributed to an offense that stalled for large chunks of the season. With the exception of the surprising Marcus Thames, everyone has under-performed. Magglio’s .861 OPS is below his career average and certainly below last season’s fabulous year, Curtis Granderson’s .838 is good but again, not what was expected and Miguel Cabrera’s .837 is well below what was needed. I haven’t even mentioned the absolutely awful season that Gary Sheffield is having, or the even worse one that Edgar Renteria is putting together. I don’t see their pitching getting much better, but maybe the offense will kick into gear long enough for the Tigers to make a run at the division. I think they get it going and finish in the 92-93 win area.

The poor, poor Royals of Kansas City just break my heart. They haven’t been awful this year, but aside from Zach Greinke and David DeJesus, the Royals have been a giant pile of mediocrity. Their prized draft pick, Alex Gordon, hasn’t exactly been lighting it up and there’s no reason to believe Joey Gathright will improve his horrific .570 OPS. I applaud the Royals for over-achieving thus far, but I think they are going to fall on their faces in the second half. I foresee something in the 70-75 win range as the resurgent Tigers, in particular, lay a beating on them.

The Cleveland Indians have been the biggest disappointment in the A.L so far this year. They were 1 game away from the World Series last year, but this year they aren’t even going to smell the playoffs. CC Sabathia was terrible at the start of the year and their offense, once feared, has been nothing to write home about. Besides Grady Sizemore’s excellence, and Ben Fransisco’s surprising play, the rest of the Cleveland Indians have faltered badly. It’s hard to lay the blame on one person; it’s just been an all-around failure. This team has a lot of talent, so I’ll write this half off as an anomaly, but they are so far back that the post season is just a dream.

A.L WEST:

The division leading Anaheim Angels are a one trick pony, but it is one hell of a trick. Vladimir Guerrero is the only one carrying this offense so runs have been scarce. Meanwhile, their pitching has been fabulous. John Lackey has been great and Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana have been having the first half of their lives. Both of their ERA’s are more than a run lower than their career averages. I’m inclined to believe this will continue for Santana because of his fabulous K/BB ratio but Saunders is a little more worrisome. Weaver and Garland have been more than adequate 4^th and 5^th starters and K-Rod has been, well, K-Rod. The pitching will never be the problem, but unless they find someone, anyone, to help Vladimir, the Angels will always contend but never win it all. They’ll probably still win the division with 90-95 wins.

I should preface the Oakland section by saying that Billy Beane is some sort of miracle man. Oakland has somehow stayed in contention despite dealing away proven commodity after proven commodity. Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and, in particular, Justin Duchsherer have far exceeded expectations and kept the A’s staff as one of the best in all of baseball. However, with the departure of Rich Harden, I can’t imagine they will continue on a winning pace this year. Their offence is even worse than the Angels. It’s unwise to bet against Billy Beane, but when Jack Cust’s .815 OPS is leading the way and you just dealt your ace for prospects, the season might be in the toilet. I think the A’s will find a way to win 80 games but no more.

The Texas Rangers are the complete opposite of the A’s and Angels. Their offense is outstanding, boasting studs such as Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley but their pitching cannot be described in a friendly manner. Their supposed best starter, Vincente Padilla, has a 4.70 ERA. The Rangers have surprised to the tune of a 50-46 record, but their pitching is so horrible that I can’t see them keeping it up. If someone made a mash of the Angels starting pitchers and the Rangers hitters, the creation would be absolutely unstoppable. Until then, the Rangers are going to be stuck trying to slug out 10-9 wins

I just have two things to say about Seattle’s season so far. This guy is your best hitter. And this guy has pitched almost 120 innings so far this year.

Yikes.

Part II comes tomorrow!

Blue Jays Mid-Season Report Card

Seeing as how I’m a Blue Jays fan and all, I thought I would give my thoughts on their season up until this point. I watched the game tonight before rendering my final verdict. I should say that though the outcome didn’t really affect my opinion of the Jays’ season, it only furthered my admiration for Roy Halladay. And in some ways it furthered my sympathy for him. Every year, the Doc goes out and gives the Jays quality start after quality start and he constantly gets rewarded with mediocre team after mediocre team. If anyone on the Jays deserves a team that can actually compete for the playoffs, it’s Halladay.

I’ll divide the report card into sub-categories and highlight the performance of individuals that I feel are particularly relevant to the grade their category was assigned. Kind of how in the way that David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro are relevant to the Jays slugging .382 as a team.

Pitching:

A cursory glance at the Jays’ pitching numbers reveals this as their true strength. Their team ERA at 3.70, puts them fourth in all of baseball. It’s not smoke and mirrors either. Their team WHIP, Ks/9 and K/BB are all top 10 in MLB. Their biggest strength in this regard has been their starting pitching. Halladay’s numbers are all superb, but expected, so I won’t even list them here. It’s been the work of Shaun Marcum (until his injury) , Jesse Litsch and Scott Downs that have been even better than expected. Marcum’s 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 3.19 K/BB are all superb and way up from where he was last year. If Marcum comes back pitching strongly after the All-Star break, he could turn out to be a vital key to any Blue Jays success down the road.

Litsch worries me a bit more than Marcum, even more so because of his swoon of late. Since his gem against Oakland on May 29^th, he’s been having a rough go of it. His ERA has jumped from 3.18 up to 4.01. However, he is still putting strong numbers, especially for a projected number 5 starter. Additionally, with a salary of less than $400,000, he is one of the biggest bargains on the roster.

Downs has been absolutely lights out coming out of the bullpen. He has somehow transformed himself from a pitcher with a career 4.14 ERA into a highly dependable setup man. I admit that last season worked out well, but looking at Downs’ career numbers before that, there was no reason to believe it was nothing more than aberration. His 7.80 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP are both solid indicators that his solid season could well continue.

While Halladay has been brilliant as expected and Downs, Litsch and Marcum have all exceeded expectations, not all of the Blue Jays pitchers are contributing in the same way. A.J Burnett in particular has been a source of frustration for any loyal Jays fan. His “stuff” may be excellent but he’s been beaten around like a rag doll this year to the tune of a 5.23 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. That would be bad for a number 5 starter, let alone a supposed number 2. Since he is probably leaving at the end of the year, anything the Blue Jays can get in return for him should be welcome.

Overall Grade for Pitching: A

Hitting:

Anyone who follows the Blue Jays is aware of their well documented problems scoring runs. I’ll just throw out a couple of numbers to highlight that fact. They rank second last in the A.L in runs scored, third from the bottom in slugging percentage and 9^th in OPS. Their biggest weakness is the complete and utter inability to hit the long ball. They are dead last in the American League in home runs hit at 62.

So who’s responsible for these numbers? From a positive stand point, and for the Jays offense there isn’t much, Joe Inglett has impressed in his playing time. His .818 OPS leads the team and his .367 OBP puts him second on the club. The more at-bats Cito finds for Inglett, the better. Rolen’s .807 OPS is pretty alright too but after that there’s no one else above .800. To give you an idea of how bad this is, there are two teams in the A.L, Boston and Texas that have TEAM OPS over .800. The Blue Jays don’t need to be that much of an offensive juggernaut to succeed given how strong their pitching is, but I think an adequate description for the Jays’ offense this year is kitten-like. They’re just so cute and cuddly!

Why the disturbingly low offensive output? The people most responsible for this are David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. Between the three of them, they have managed to hit 5 home runs, 37 doubles and 1 triple in almost 700 at-bats. This, my friends , is a problem. It is a particularly big problem since none of them is extraordinarily good at getting on base. Eckstein’s .360 OBP and Scutaro’s .351 are OKAY but Aaron Hill’s is a putrid .324. The biggest upgrade the Jays could make would be in taking the bats out of the hands of these three players.

Overall Grade for Hitting: D-

Management:

While a team only succeeds or fails as much as its players succeed or fail, the people responsible for putting a team together are evaluated based on the successes or failures of these same players. Since J.P Riccardi is the face of management, he is the one on trial here as it were.

His biggest moves this past offseason were the signing of Rios to a long-term contract extension, re-upping Scott Downs, and bringing in Rolen and Eckstein. I would say two of those moves were successes, one was a wash and one was a failure. Rios has struggled this year, but one has to assume the first 90 or so games of this season are less indicative of his seasons to come than his two seasons’ worth of work before that. He seemed to turning into a .850 to .875 OPS type of guy with solid defence to boot. Those aren’t superstar numbers, but I’d want him on my team and J.P signed him to a reasonable contract.

Riccardi’s other success was the re-upping of Scott Downs. I’ve already been over my appreciation for Downs’ work, so I won’t go over that again, but his contract is also very reasonable. So, once again, I will give credit where credit is due.

If Riccardi deserves praise so too does he deserve criticism. The acquisition of David Eckstein has been an absolute disaster. The man can’t hit or play defence to save his life. How many times has he one hopped throws across the diamond? The only thing he has going for him is that he is “gritty”. This is a nice way of saying he’s 5”6 and sucks at baseball. David Eckstein must go for the Blue Jays to be successful.

Furthermore, Riccardi’s failure to recognize the Blue Jays desperate offensive needs is baffling. Vernon Wells is an alright hitter but not someone you want to pin your offensive hopes on. The same applies for Lyle Overbay and a now aging Scott Rolen. There is no way anyone could have objectively looked at their lineup at the start of the season and say their offence would be good enough to win the division. Projected starters Gregg Zaun, Eckstein, Hill and Stewart are all offensive black holes. In failing to address their glaring need for power, Riccardi hamstrung what could have otherwise been a promising season. It might be time for the slick-haired one to move on.

Overall Grade for Management: C

Overall Team Grade: C+

The main reason for the above grade is that so much could be made out of this Blue Jays team. A lot of the pieces are there so their performance is slightly disappointing, but had to be expected when their offense was objectively examined. The core of a good team is certainly there, but without the infusion of one or two power bats, and I’m talking a Vlad Guerrero type player here, there is little hope of the post-season. As far as the rest of the season goes, I imagine it will end with 80-84 wins and hopefully big changes at season’s end. Being a Jays fan is certainly frustrating, but hey, I could be a Royals fan.

All-Star Game: Picks and Snubs Part II

Thanks a lot to those of you who took the time to read part I of the article. If you’re new to the blog, just scroll down to the bottom of the page and you can catch up in no time. As usual, I can be reached at noheartball@gmail.com or leave a comment below the article. I’ll follow the same format as last time, except possibly with more incredulity as there were some real doozies on the N.L side of things.

Definitely Should Have Been There:

Pat Burrell:

I’m not sure what more Pat the Bat could have done to get on the All-Star team this year. He is currently second among National League outfielders in OPS and first in home runs. He doesn’t just hit for power either, he is second among all N.L outfielders in On-Base Percentage at .409. The man does not make outs. I will grant you that he isn’t known for his defence, but Matt Holliday isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart himself and he made the team with nearly identical numbers. In fact, Burrell has 8 more HRs than Holliday. And that’s just pointing how well Burrell compares to the BEST offensive outfielders in the N.L. I haven’t even mentioned the inclusion of Kosuke Fukudome and his just-above-average .811 OPS. Burrell is OBLITERATING Fukudome in every meaningful statistical category. Congratulations Cubs fans, you really pulled a fast one here.

J.J Hardy / Jose Reyes:

I have absolutely no idea why Miguel Tejada is ahead of either of these guys. Miguel’s chugging along with a .764 OPS and 10 homers, respectable enough numbers for a shortstop, but Hardy and Reyes check in at .857 with 12 homers and .842 with 9 homers respectively. If I had to pick between Hardy and Reyes, it would be a tough choice but I think I’d go with Hardy because he’s shown more power this year and Reyes has been a butcher in the field to the tune of 12 errors already this year. If you wanted to tell me that Reyes was better because of his base stealing abilities I wouldn’t argue too much with you though. The gist is that somebody should be replacing Tejada here.

Jason Bay:

Bay has been having a monster season with 17 homers and a .922 OPS as of this writing. His exclusion from the team is particularly head-scratching when you consider that his teammate Nate McLouth is essentially going in his place. Bay is ahead of McLouth in every meaningful statistical category and most importantly holds a large lead in the OBP department. McLouth has been playing well but Bay has just simply been better, especially of late. He’s also ahead of Soriano and Braun, who were named as starters, in almost every single offensive category. What does a good old Canadian boy have to do to make it to the mid-summer classic?

Any Living Organism Instead of Brian Wilson:

Much like the Varitek selection, Brian Wilson’s All-Star game appearance is mind blowing. He has been the epitome of average with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and his pedestrian 2.44K/BB ratio. Now. I realize that he has 24 saves and that somehow, in the minds of some, this makes up for everything cited above. You know what it means that Wilson has 24 saves with the kind of numbers that I just mentioned? That any average major league pitcher, thrust into Wilson’s role, could have 24 saves. Wilson is perfectly mediocre, he just happens to be mediocre during the ninth inning of Giants games instead of the 6^th or 7^th inning like most other relief pitchers.

An Argument Could Be Made:

Johan Santana:

Johan isn’t having his usual A+ season but his numbers, 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 3.41K/BB ratio are still near the very top of the league. As with John Danks from the other column, the only reason I can really see for Santana’s exclusion is his meagre win-loss record. At 7-7 he isn’t blowing the competition away, but that’s more a product of the Mets struggling offensively than Santana being sub-par. He’s still been one of the best pitchers in the National League for the first half of the season but I guess this once someone else will take his usual spot at the All-Star Game.

Cole Hamels:

Hamels might actually be having a better season than Santana with only his ERA, 3.22 to 2.96, trailing Johan’s. Hamels has a 1.02 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .209 against him. .209! That’s crazy good. Volquez, Lincecum, Haren and Zambrano are all having great season so far, but for my money, Hamels is outclassing Ryan Dempster by a bit and Aaron Cook by an even larger margin. Hamels could pitch on my all-star team any day.

Adam Dunn:

That’s right, I’m going there. I think Adam Dunn could be an All-Star. We all need to get over our fear of his terrible batting average. I am aware that he is hitting .228. I know that he has struck out 93 times already. 93 is a lot of times. I am going to propose that this is all irrelevant because he has an OBP of .386. That’s right .386. That puts him 23^rd in all of baseball and 10^th amongst outfielders. He simply does not make a lot of outs. He also hits for power; a lot of power. Adam Dunn has hit 22 homers already this season, which ties him for fourth in all of baseball. Adam Dunn, let me just say that if I was running the Jays, you would be more than welcome. Lord knows the Blue Jays could use a half decent bat or two.

And that does it for my All-Star Game write-up. I hope you guys enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. Once again, I would encourage everyone to leave a comment if you feel so inclined, or to send me an e-mail at noheartball@gmail.com. If you like what I’m doing so far, tell a friend!

That Adam Dunn section is actually a nice segue into my plan for Friday. As a Blue Jays fan, I feel obligated to share my feelings on their season so far, so Friday will be something of a mid-season report card. Let’s just say J.P Riccardi doesn’t score too high. Hope to see you then!

NB