Blue Jays Mid-Season Report Card

Seeing as how I’m a Blue Jays fan and all, I thought I would give my thoughts on their season up until this point. I watched the game tonight before rendering my final verdict. I should say that though the outcome didn’t really affect my opinion of the Jays’ season, it only furthered my admiration for Roy Halladay. And in some ways it furthered my sympathy for him. Every year, the Doc goes out and gives the Jays quality start after quality start and he constantly gets rewarded with mediocre team after mediocre team. If anyone on the Jays deserves a team that can actually compete for the playoffs, it’s Halladay.

I’ll divide the report card into sub-categories and highlight the performance of individuals that I feel are particularly relevant to the grade their category was assigned. Kind of how in the way that David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro are relevant to the Jays slugging .382 as a team.

Pitching:

A cursory glance at the Jays’ pitching numbers reveals this as their true strength. Their team ERA at 3.70, puts them fourth in all of baseball. It’s not smoke and mirrors either. Their team WHIP, Ks/9 and K/BB are all top 10 in MLB. Their biggest strength in this regard has been their starting pitching. Halladay’s numbers are all superb, but expected, so I won’t even list them here. It’s been the work of Shaun Marcum (until his injury) , Jesse Litsch and Scott Downs that have been even better than expected. Marcum’s 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 3.19 K/BB are all superb and way up from where he was last year. If Marcum comes back pitching strongly after the All-Star break, he could turn out to be a vital key to any Blue Jays success down the road.

Litsch worries me a bit more than Marcum, even more so because of his swoon of late. Since his gem against Oakland on May 29^th, he’s been having a rough go of it. His ERA has jumped from 3.18 up to 4.01. However, he is still putting strong numbers, especially for a projected number 5 starter. Additionally, with a salary of less than $400,000, he is one of the biggest bargains on the roster.

Downs has been absolutely lights out coming out of the bullpen. He has somehow transformed himself from a pitcher with a career 4.14 ERA into a highly dependable setup man. I admit that last season worked out well, but looking at Downs’ career numbers before that, there was no reason to believe it was nothing more than aberration. His 7.80 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP are both solid indicators that his solid season could well continue.

While Halladay has been brilliant as expected and Downs, Litsch and Marcum have all exceeded expectations, not all of the Blue Jays pitchers are contributing in the same way. A.J Burnett in particular has been a source of frustration for any loyal Jays fan. His “stuff” may be excellent but he’s been beaten around like a rag doll this year to the tune of a 5.23 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. That would be bad for a number 5 starter, let alone a supposed number 2. Since he is probably leaving at the end of the year, anything the Blue Jays can get in return for him should be welcome.

Overall Grade for Pitching: A

Hitting:

Anyone who follows the Blue Jays is aware of their well documented problems scoring runs. I’ll just throw out a couple of numbers to highlight that fact. They rank second last in the A.L in runs scored, third from the bottom in slugging percentage and 9^th in OPS. Their biggest weakness is the complete and utter inability to hit the long ball. They are dead last in the American League in home runs hit at 62.

So who’s responsible for these numbers? From a positive stand point, and for the Jays offense there isn’t much, Joe Inglett has impressed in his playing time. His .818 OPS leads the team and his .367 OBP puts him second on the club. The more at-bats Cito finds for Inglett, the better. Rolen’s .807 OPS is pretty alright too but after that there’s no one else above .800. To give you an idea of how bad this is, there are two teams in the A.L, Boston and Texas that have TEAM OPS over .800. The Blue Jays don’t need to be that much of an offensive juggernaut to succeed given how strong their pitching is, but I think an adequate description for the Jays’ offense this year is kitten-like. They’re just so cute and cuddly!

Why the disturbingly low offensive output? The people most responsible for this are David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. Between the three of them, they have managed to hit 5 home runs, 37 doubles and 1 triple in almost 700 at-bats. This, my friends , is a problem. It is a particularly big problem since none of them is extraordinarily good at getting on base. Eckstein’s .360 OBP and Scutaro’s .351 are OKAY but Aaron Hill’s is a putrid .324. The biggest upgrade the Jays could make would be in taking the bats out of the hands of these three players.

Overall Grade for Hitting: D-

Management:

While a team only succeeds or fails as much as its players succeed or fail, the people responsible for putting a team together are evaluated based on the successes or failures of these same players. Since J.P Riccardi is the face of management, he is the one on trial here as it were.

His biggest moves this past offseason were the signing of Rios to a long-term contract extension, re-upping Scott Downs, and bringing in Rolen and Eckstein. I would say two of those moves were successes, one was a wash and one was a failure. Rios has struggled this year, but one has to assume the first 90 or so games of this season are less indicative of his seasons to come than his two seasons’ worth of work before that. He seemed to turning into a .850 to .875 OPS type of guy with solid defence to boot. Those aren’t superstar numbers, but I’d want him on my team and J.P signed him to a reasonable contract.

Riccardi’s other success was the re-upping of Scott Downs. I’ve already been over my appreciation for Downs’ work, so I won’t go over that again, but his contract is also very reasonable. So, once again, I will give credit where credit is due.

If Riccardi deserves praise so too does he deserve criticism. The acquisition of David Eckstein has been an absolute disaster. The man can’t hit or play defence to save his life. How many times has he one hopped throws across the diamond? The only thing he has going for him is that he is “gritty”. This is a nice way of saying he’s 5”6 and sucks at baseball. David Eckstein must go for the Blue Jays to be successful.

Furthermore, Riccardi’s failure to recognize the Blue Jays desperate offensive needs is baffling. Vernon Wells is an alright hitter but not someone you want to pin your offensive hopes on. The same applies for Lyle Overbay and a now aging Scott Rolen. There is no way anyone could have objectively looked at their lineup at the start of the season and say their offence would be good enough to win the division. Projected starters Gregg Zaun, Eckstein, Hill and Stewart are all offensive black holes. In failing to address their glaring need for power, Riccardi hamstrung what could have otherwise been a promising season. It might be time for the slick-haired one to move on.

Overall Grade for Management: C

Overall Team Grade: C+

The main reason for the above grade is that so much could be made out of this Blue Jays team. A lot of the pieces are there so their performance is slightly disappointing, but had to be expected when their offense was objectively examined. The core of a good team is certainly there, but without the infusion of one or two power bats, and I’m talking a Vlad Guerrero type player here, there is little hope of the post-season. As far as the rest of the season goes, I imagine it will end with 80-84 wins and hopefully big changes at season’s end. Being a Jays fan is certainly frustrating, but hey, I could be a Royals fan.