The Big Three

I hate to take all the suspense out of this engrossing NBA season, but I’ve come upon a truth: only the Celtics, Lakers and Cavaliers have a chance to win the 2009 NBA championship. As of this writing, their combined record stands at 66-9, giving them an outrageous .880 winning percentage. For all three teams to continue winning at this clip seems to be asking a bit much, but I can envision a situation where all three teams win at least 65 games. Boston and Cleveland will be pushing each other all the way down to the wire for the 1st overall seed in the East and the Lakers have the deepest roster in the association.

The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.

The Case for the Lakers:

Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.

The Case for the Celtics:

The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.

The Case for the Cavaliers:

In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.

The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.

With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.


It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.