We’ll kick things off in the National League’s East division.
N.L EAST:
It used to be that you could count on three things in life: Death, taxes and the Atlanta Braves winning the N.L East. However, those days now seem long gone. Unless there is a minor miracle, this will be the third consecutive season that a team other than the Braves has won the N.L East after more than a decade of Atlanta supremacy. The Phillies and Mets look poised to do battle all the way until the very end of the year with Atlanta and Florida fighting to stay at .500. The Washington Nationals will just get their asses handed to them.
The knock on the Phillies has always been that they live and die by their offense, slugging out 10-9 wins. This year, that isn’t actually true. Their offense has remained impressive, ranking 2nd in the N.L in runs scored, but their pitching has actually held its own with a team ERA of 3.90. It would surprise no one then that the Phillies have the second best run differential in the N.L and fourth best in all of baseball. Put two and two together and you’ve got to believe the Phillies are going to make a run in the second half. With their three headed monster in Burrell, Utley and Howard, the Phillies should never be short for runs. Now that the pitching staff has got it together, thanks to Cole Hamels and a ridiculous bullpen, I expect the Phillies to wind up around 95 wins.
After last year’s epic collapse, the Mets felt they had no choice to shake things up. Bringing in the best pitcher in all of baseball is a pretty good way to shake things up. The Mets started the season as if they were half asleep but since that time, they’ve turned things around nicely. The pitching is humming along with a team ERA of 3.95 and they are 4th in the N.L in runs at 460. Johan has been great (2.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and the supporting cast has been good enough to keep the Mets close until the bullpen can come in and do their job. Wagner, Schoeneweiss, Feliciano and Joe Smith are all having solid seasons out of the ‘pen. The offensive work is done mostly by David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltra. After a less than stellar year in 2007, it’s nice to see Reyes really getting it done this year. I think the Mets really get it going in the second half fight the Phillies tooth and nail to 95 wins.
The Braves and Marlins should fight closely for the third spot. The Marlins have a very promising young core with Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham, Cody Ross, Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs all under the age of 30. If they could just find some pitching to help Ricky Norasco and Scott Olsen, who have been solid if unspectacular, they could turn this division into a three horse race. I think we’ll hear from Florida again soon.
The Braves, meanwhile, continue their slow slide into oblivion. Jair Jurrens and Tim Hudson has kept their pitching near the top of the N.L but their offense is a three man show: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira. Everyone else on the Braves has, well, failed to hit the ball. Gregor Blanco and Jeff Francoeur in particular have been doing more harm than good. With Hudson and Jones aging, I think this season is only the tip of the iceberg. The Braves will barely make it to 80 wins this year and probably less in the years to come.
The Washington Nationals...no. Just ,no.
N.L CENTRAL:
The Central is home to probably the best team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs, a couple of wild card contenders, Milwaukee Brewers and St.Louis Cardinals, and then a whole bunch of nobodies. The Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros all have approximately a zero percent chance of winning the division. They might even have a negative chance, if it were possible.
The Cubs have just about everything going for them right now. They have the best offense in the N.L as well as the third best pitching staff by team ERA. And that was before they added flamethrower Rich Harden. Ever since Jim Edmonds drank from the Holy Grail, how else has his miraculous turn around really been possible, the Cubs are boasting 6, 6!, regulars with OPS over .830. (For the suffering Blue Jays fans out there, we don’t have a single, not one, hitter with an OPS over .830. Woo! Go jays!). I don’t think Ryan Dempster will keep pitching a full run below his career ERA but if Harden stays healthy, there is no way the Cubs don’t win 100 games and probably the National Leage. It’s a good time to be a Cubs fan.
The Brewers and Cardinals may not really challenge the Cubs, but they should wage a good battle for the Wild Card. The Cardinals are getting another monstrous season from Albert Pujols but a lot of their success is due to the surprising play of Ryan Ludwick and the resurgence of Troy Glaus. Besides Kyle Lohse and his surprising 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre. For this reason, I can’t see the Cardinals holding off the Brewers down the homestretch. They are simply too thin pitching-wise. The Cardinals will finish with 85-90 wins, well above what any reasonable person could have expected from them at the start of the year.
With the addition of CC Sabathia, the Brew Crew is going to win the Wild Card. I’m calling it now. Their offensive core, with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and J.J Hardy will score runs. Fielder, in fact, is still performing below his career averages and I think he’ll keep getting better as the season goes on. Ben Sheets, and now CC, will provide superb pitching and Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will be just decent enough to win some games. Their bullpen has also received some stellar performances from Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres. If those two keep their career years going, there’s nothing else stopping Milwaukee.
The other three teams in the N.L Central all have some strong suits but glaring weaknesses. The Pirates score a ton of runs, but also sport a team ERA of 5.24. That is unsightly. Cincinnati and Houston are only marginally better with 4.43 and 4.49 respectively. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at least have light at the end of tunnel with young stars like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit for the Pirates and Edison Volquez, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips for the Reds. The Astros are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and a bunch of spare parts. Even Roy Oswalt has been underwhelming this year. It’s a tough time to be an Astros fan.
N.L WEST:
The West has been the worst division in baseball. The division leading Diamondbacks are under .500. The second place Dodgers are 46-49 and still well within range of a division title. Hell, even the 40-55 Giants could make a claim to have playoff aspirations. San Diego’s 37-58 record leaves them only 10 games out of first.
The Diamondbacks are the team with the most hope of this sorry lot. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are superb pitchers. The team pitching has been very respectable on the whole, with a 3.92 team ERA. The offense, however, has not. Chris Young and Eric Byrnes have been terrible and no one is having a particularly stellar season to replace them. Conor Jackson is having the best of them but while his .846 OPS is strong, it’s nothing to write home about. The Diamondbacks, with their current rotation in which the mummified body of Randy Johnson is pitching 200 innings per season, are a big bat away from breaking out. I think they finish in the 85 win range on the back of Haren and Webb. They’ll win the division of crappiness.
The Dodgers have two of the worst contracts in all of baseball: Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Their other major problem: this guy has 107 at-bats, this guy has 266 and this guy has 285. That, my friends, is a lot of outs. If it wasn’t for their pitching, N.L leading 3.64 ERA, this team would be absolutely nowhere. They are, in a lot of ways, the Toronto Blue Jays of the National League. The only difference between the two teams is the division they play in. In the A.L East, a sub 500 record gets you fourth place and fans calling for the G.M’s head. In the N.L West, you have a great shot at a division title. The Dodgers will fall in the 80-85 win range and just miss the playoffs behind the Diamondbacks.
The San Francisco Giants have Tim Lincecum and that’s about it. Jose Sanchez and Matt Cain have shown signs of promise but nothing to indicate a great turn around any time soon. The Giants need to revamp their entire offense before they get anywhere. They’ll win about 70 games this year.
The feel-good stories of last year, the Colorado Rockies, are not feeling so good this year. Matt Holliday is having another monster season, .975 OPS, and the Rockies are scoring runs in bunches. Their pitching, however, has been terrifying to watch. Aaron Cook is the only one doing respectable work. His 3.57 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are both career bests, but no one else in their starting rotation has an ERA below 4. Most notably, Jeff Francis has been beaten around to the tune of a 5.17 ERA. It’s amazing how a 22 game winning streak makes people forget you don’t have any pitching.
Did you know that Jake Peavy is having a better season offensively than the Padres’ starting shortstop and both of their catchers?That about sums their season up. If they make it to 75 wins, it’ll be a miracle.
I hope you guys enjoyed my look into baseball’s first half of the season. I’ll be back with another column Friday evening.
NB
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