Burnett Flies the Coop

A.J Burnett’s signing with the Yankees this past weekend was an important moment for the Toronto Blue Jays and their plans for 2009 and beyond. On Friday, Burnett and the Yankees agreed on a 5 year, 82.5 million dollar contract. Losing Burnett will hurt the Blue Jays, he put together an outstanding stretch to close out the season. The question boils down to this: is losing Burnett for the amount of money the Yankees paid him a major loss or not? The answer is, surprisingly, not that clear.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.

All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.

The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.