Evaluating the Raptors

It may be early in the season but it’s not too soon to begin passing judgment on the Toronto Raptors. There are two ways to look at their performance so far. They are either a good team that is vastly underperforming or they are a team that entered the season with unrealistically high expectations. I think the answer is closer to the latter than it is to the former. They aren’t as bad as their record would indicate but they also aren’t going to be winning 50 games with the roster they have. So far, the Raptors have received outstanding play from one player (Chris Bosh), very good play from another (Jose Calderon) and very little of value from anyone else.

As a team, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are giving up 102.0 points per game and, more tellingly, rank 23^rd overall in defensive efficiency. The reasons for this are myriad but come down primarily to two: weak perimeter defending and an inability to rebound. One of their two best offensive players, Jose Calderon, is being torched by every player he guards. When Calderon gets beat, someone has to come with help and smart point guards are kicking it out to wide open shooters. Also, their best outside shooter, and someone they desperately need on the floor to really make their offense click, couldn’t guard me. If Jason Kapono could just stay in front of his man once in a while, he could play more meaningful minutes and be the shooter they so desperately need.

Their failure to rebound is pretty remarkable considering they often play a lineup with three 7 footers in it. The stats don’t lie though: the Raptors are 23^rd in defensive rebound rate. Games against Orlando and Boston in particular have produced lopsided rebounding lines. I would suggest the main problem here can once again be tied to the perimeter defense. When penetration occurs there has to be help from one of the big men. If a rebound comes from the shot attempt, the big men are out of position because they came to help.

With such poor defending, the Raptors would have to be scoring at a prodigious rate to be winning their fair share of games. Unfortunately, they are not. They are only 20^th in the league in offensive efficiency. Chris Bosh is having an absolutely outstanding season but Andrea Bargnani has not taken the step forward the team needs him to. He has been more aggressive in bringing the ball to the basket, but he is still taking a lot of ill-advised jumpers. For that matter, Jermaine O’Neal has been a bit of a disappointment offensively and Anthony Parker has been atrocious. Overall, Parker is shooting less than 40% from the field.

All in all, not a lot of bright spots for the Raptors so far this season. The emergence of Chris Bosh as a bonafide superstar is about all Raps fans have to cheer for. I don’t think the outlook is all doom and gloom though. Bargnani has shown flashes of brilliance, if maddening inconsistency with his jumper and the play of Joey Graham in recent games has been nothing short of a revelation. That being said, their entire fate rests on the shoulders of Jermaine O’Neal. If O’Neal can find his way back to his form from ’05-06 when he averaged 20 points a game while shooting 47 percent from the field, the Raptors will make it to 45 wins or so. If he doesn’t get back to that, or, more likely, if he gets hurt again, the Raptors will struggle to 40. The coach has been thrown under the bus. The clock is now ticking on the man who assembled the team. Eighteen months ago, when the Raptors were fresh off their first Atlantic Division title, seems so long ago now.