First off, thank you once again to everyone that has been reading the site so far. It’s been a pleasure writing the articles and I hope you guys have enjoyed reading them. I apologize for the delay in getting this article out. I was planning on writing something short, but it came out as a bit of a magnum opus. I hope you guys like reading about baseball!
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I’ll divide the preview division by division. It’s a fairly in-depth process, with a team by team analysis, so the column will once again appear in two parts. Part I today and Part II on Wednesday. There should be a lot to look forward to in the coming months, so strap yourselves in.
A.L EAST:
The American League East has been one of the most fascinating divisions in all of baseball through the first half of the season. Most people expected the Red Sox and Yankees to run away with the division, with the Blue Jays possibly challenging if you were a deluded member of the
I feel I don’t even need to write about the Red Sox and yet I will. When Big Papi comes back, their offense will be stupid good again. J.D Drew, Mike Lowell, Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis have been so good that they are making up for the horrific seasons that
I’ve already a fairly in-depth piece about the Jays, but in case you missed it, I called for 80-84 wins and a fourth place finish in the division. If Halladay is serious about moving on if the Jays don’t build a contender, J.P better get his act together ASAP.
The Orioles are a lot better than I thought they would be. I don’t think they will quite keep up the pace they have set for themselves but the future looks bright with Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones. Markakis in particular has been having a great season to the tune of an .892 OPS and 14 Home Runs. Brian Roberts is also having another solid year, but I can’t help but wonder if the Orioles aren’t wasting his prime years. If they can find some good pitching prospects, they might be well served to make a move. Speaking of the pitching, they need to do something about it. Their lone bright spot has been Jeremy Guthrie and his solid 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. I’ll describe their rest of their pitchers in one word: Yikes. Bonus: Adam Jones profile picture on ESPN.com is pure gold. . How did he let that be put up?
The other perennial power in the A.L East is the New York Yankees. As usual, the Yankees boast some of the highest priced talent in all of baseball. With their offensive talents, their pitching should only have to be mediocre for the Yaks to be powerhouses. The pitching has mostly been there, including notable performances by Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera and the miracle resurrection of Mike Mussina. However, the offensive talent hasn’t quite been performing up to snuff. I’m not suggesting they won’t make a run but a lot of the guys they are paying big bucks are not delivering. The two biggest busts so far are Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, though I will admit Cano has maybe turned the corner. However, the relative underachievement of the Yankees is not just on these two. The skipper himself, Derek Jeter, has played poorly so far this year. A .740 OPS is simply not going to do it when you are being paid 21 million dollars a year. If Jeter, now 34, is in a decline phase, then the Yankees are in big trouble. If he comes back around, maybe they make a run to the playoffs. Giambi and A-Rod are carrying this team so far. Mr. Jeter, the ball is in your court. My guess is they put it together, but maybe not quite all the way and end up in the 90-95 win range.
A.L CENTRAL:
The Central was supposedly going to be a battle between Detroit and Cleveland for supremacy. Today, those predictions seem particularly backwards when one considers Detroit’s .500 record and Cleveland’s not so stellar 41-53 showing. I’ll start with the biggest surprise of the division: the Chicago White Sox. After last year’s debacle, no one expected them to be first in their division this late in the season, not to mention contending for the best record in baseball. The main reason for their success is the pitching staff’s return to its 2005 form. Led by second year starter John Danks and his 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, the White Sox have the second best team ERA in the A.L at a sparkling 3.57. Gavin Floyd and Mark Buerhle have also contributed strong seasons and, until his injury, Bobby Jenks had been solid out of the bullpen. Their offense has been resting mostly on the shoulders of Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin, and Jim Thome. Dye and Thome are proven, if aging, commodities but Quentin has been a bit of a surprise. With no one else having an OPS over .800, and only Nick Swisher as a possible candidate to turn it up in the second half, the Sox will need everything they can get out of Thome, Dye and Quentin. I think they will falter a little along the way and end with around 90 wins.
I will go out on a limb and say that the Twins are a fluke at this stage in the season. They are ridiculously thin offensively, with Morneau and Mauer doing almost all the heavy lifting and their pitching isn’t too hot either. Kevin Slowey, and his magnificent 4.69 K/BB ratio,might one day become the ace that they need, but he’s not quite there yet. Joe Nathan has been his usual spectacular self out of the bullpen but I just don’t see it with these guys. I think in a couple of years Delmon Young might be really good, but he’s not there yet. When he’s been in the lineup, Nick Punto has been solid as well, but again, the Twins are a year or two away. I think they fade and end up with about 80 wins.
Detroit was the team that everyone picked at the start of the season to win the division and maybe even the A.L and then the World Series. They came out of the gate absolutely awfully and have been struggling to recover since then. As would be expected, their pitching has been mediocre at best, ranking 11th in the A.L in team ERA. However, the team’s overall failure so far can be directly attributed to an offense that stalled for large chunks of the season. With the exception of the surprising Marcus Thames, everyone has under-performed. Magglio’s .861 OPS is below his career average and certainly below last season’s fabulous year, Curtis Granderson’s .838 is good but again, not what was expected and Miguel Cabrera’s .837 is well below what was needed. I haven’t even mentioned the absolutely awful season that Gary Sheffield is having, or the even worse one that Edgar Renteria is putting together. I don’t see their pitching getting much better, but maybe the offense will kick into gear long enough for the Tigers to make a run at the division. I think they get it going and finish in the 92-93 win area.
The poor, poor Royals of Kansas City just break my heart. They haven’t been awful this year, but aside from Zach Greinke and David DeJesus, the Royals have been a giant pile of mediocrity. Their prized draft pick, Alex Gordon, hasn’t exactly been lighting it up and there’s no reason to believe Joey Gathright will improve his horrific .570 OPS. I applaud the Royals for over-achieving thus far, but I think they are going to fall on their faces in the second half. I foresee something in the 70-75 win range as the resurgent Tigers, in particular, lay a beating on them.
The Cleveland Indians have been the biggest disappointment in the A.L so far this year. They were 1 game away from the World Series last year, but this year they aren’t even going to smell the playoffs. CC Sabathia was terrible at the start of the year and their offense, once feared, has been nothing to write home about. Besides Grady Sizemore’s excellence, and Ben Fransisco’s surprising play, the rest of the Cleveland Indians have faltered badly. It’s hard to lay the blame on one person; it’s just been an all-around failure. This team has a lot of talent, so I’ll write this half off as an anomaly, but they are so far back that the post season is just a dream.
A.L WEST:
The division leading Anaheim Angels are a one trick pony, but it is one hell of a trick. Vladimir Guerrero is the only one carrying this offense so runs have been scarce. Meanwhile, their pitching has been fabulous. John Lackey has been great and Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana have been having the first half of their lives. Both of their ERA’s are more than a run lower than their career averages. I’m inclined to believe this will continue for Santana because of his fabulous K/BB ratio but Saunders is a little more worrisome. Weaver and Garland have been more than adequate 4th and 5th starters and K-Rod has been, well, K-Rod. The pitching will never be the problem, but unless they find someone, anyone, to help Vladimir, the Angels will always contend but never win it all. They’ll probably still win the division with 90-95 wins.
I should preface the Oakland section by saying that Billy Beane is some sort of miracle man. Oakland has somehow stayed in contention despite dealing away proven commodity after proven commodity. Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and, in particular, Justin Duchsherer have far exceeded expectations and kept the A’s staff as one of the best in all of baseball. However, with the departure of Rich Harden, I can’t imagine they will continue on a winning pace this year. Their offence is even worse than the Angels. It’s unwise to bet against Billy Beane, but when Jack Cust’s .815 OPS is leading the way and you just dealt your ace for prospects, the season might be in the toilet. I think the A’s will find a way to win 80 games but no more.
The Texas Rangers are the complete opposite of the A’s and Angels. Their offense is outstanding, boasting studs such as Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley but their pitching cannot be described in a friendly manner. Their supposed best starter, Vincente Padilla, has a 4.70 ERA. The Rangers have surprised to the tune of a 50-46 record, but their pitching is so horrible that I can’t see them keeping it up. If someone made a mash of the Angels starting pitchers and the Rangers hitters, the creation would be absolutely unstoppable. Until then, the Rangers are going to be stuck trying to slug out 10-9 wins
I just have two things to say about Seattle’s season so far. This guy is your best hitter. And this guy has pitched almost 120 innings so far this year.
Yikes.
Part II comes tomorrow!
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