Thursday, December 18, 2008
I Love the NBA
After finishing my post on the Big Three, I watched most of the fourth quarter of the Trail Blazers-Suns game. First of all, absolutely fantastic game. Brandon Roy goes off for a career high 52 points and both teams shoot over 50% from the field. Boston, L.A and Cleveland may be the teams this year, but Portland is definitely the team of the future. Second of all, I now love Portland fans. I'm sure most of you have already seen the video of the dancing fans from the highlights, but if you haven't, please check it out. I'll try to post a link to a video tomorrow morning in the a.m.
The Big Three
I hate to take all the suspense out of this engrossing NBA season, but I’ve come upon a truth: only the Celtics, Lakers and Cavaliers have a chance to win the 2009 NBA championship. As of this writing, their combined record stands at 66-9, giving them an outrageous .880 winning percentage. For all three teams to continue winning at this clip seems to be asking a bit much, but I can envision a situation where all three teams win at least 65 games. Boston and Cleveland will be pushing each other all the way down to the wire for the 1st overall seed in the East and the Lakers have the deepest roster in the association.
The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.
The Case for the Lakers:
Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.
The Case for the Celtics:
The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.
The Case for the Cavaliers:
In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.
The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.
With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.
It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.
The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.
The Case for the Lakers:
Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.
The Case for the Celtics:
The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.
The Case for the Cavaliers:
In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.
The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.
With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.
It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Quick NBA Thoughts
As the NBA season chugs past the 25 game mark, a separation between the haves and the have-nots is beginning to take place. There are three legitimate juggernauts (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers), ten good teams with a chance of making noise in the playoffs and then everyone else. Twenty-five games into the season, there are thirteen teams that have won eleven games or less. That, my friends, is ugly. On the whole, however, I think the disparity is actually good for the fans. If you are a fan of the Thunder, it’s not much fun to watch your team lose 117-82 to Cleveland, but, as a fan of basketball, the level of play amongst the stronger teams has been an absolute joy to watch. I cannot wait for the L.A-Boston game on Christmas Day. Cleveland – Denver on Friday should be great and the Detroit – Atlanta game on Sunday will be good too. It seems like every day or two, there is a good to great basketball game being played. The game tonight between the Celtics and Hawks was a great example of how much fun a basketball game can be. There was intense play on both ends of the court, skilled players making big shots at the end and the game wasn’t decided until the final buzzer.
I’ve been following the NBA closely for about eight years now and I can’t remember being so excited about the league. There has been a major influx of high quality players in the last five years or so and the level of play has risen accordingly. Even the bad teams have diamonds in the rough. O.J Mayo and Derrick Rose have looked fantastic and Michael Beasley has shown flashes of brilliance. As a Raptors fan, it’s been tough. Their performance against Dallas tonight didn’t exactly give me a lot of hope. Every time I’m down though, I’ll flip to SportsCentre and see a clip of LeBron James absolutely destroying the rim on a fast break. I am immediately reminded of why I love basketball.
On Thursday, I’ll have an in-depth post up about the big three and why I think no one else will challenge for the title.
I’ve been following the NBA closely for about eight years now and I can’t remember being so excited about the league. There has been a major influx of high quality players in the last five years or so and the level of play has risen accordingly. Even the bad teams have diamonds in the rough. O.J Mayo and Derrick Rose have looked fantastic and Michael Beasley has shown flashes of brilliance. As a Raptors fan, it’s been tough. Their performance against Dallas tonight didn’t exactly give me a lot of hope. Every time I’m down though, I’ll flip to SportsCentre and see a clip of LeBron James absolutely destroying the rim on a fast break. I am immediately reminded of why I love basketball.
On Thursday, I’ll have an in-depth post up about the big three and why I think no one else will challenge for the title.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Burnett Flies the Coop
A.J Burnett’s signing with the Yankees this past weekend was an important moment for the Toronto Blue Jays and their plans for 2009 and beyond. On Friday, Burnett and the Yankees agreed on a 5 year, 82.5 million dollar contract. Losing Burnett will hurt the Blue Jays, he put together an outstanding stretch to close out the season. The question boils down to this: is losing Burnett for the amount of money the Yankees paid him a major loss or not? The answer is, surprisingly, not that clear.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.
All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.
The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.
All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.
The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Proven Wrong
So I write my first piece of the re-launch about how the Raptors are not destined for greatness and they go out and slap New Jersey around to the tune of 101-79. Sure makes me look an idiot. In this case, I hope I'm wrong.
Evaluating the Raptors
It may be early in the season but it’s not too soon to begin passing judgment on the Toronto Raptors. There are two ways to look at their performance so far. They are either a good team that is vastly underperforming or they are a team that entered the season with unrealistically high expectations. I think the answer is closer to the latter than it is to the former. They aren’t as bad as their record would indicate but they also aren’t going to be winning 50 games with the roster they have. So far, the Raptors have received outstanding play from one player (Chris Bosh), very good play from another (Jose Calderon) and very little of value from anyone else.
As a team, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are giving up 102.0 points per game and, more tellingly, rank 23rd overall in defensive efficiency. The reasons for this are myriad but come down primarily to two: weak perimeter defending and an inability to rebound. One of their two best offensive players, Jose Calderon, is being torched by every player he guards. When Calderon gets beat, someone has to come with help and smart point guards are kicking it out to wide open shooters. Also, their best outside shooter, and someone they desperately need on the floor to really make their offense click, couldn’t guard me. If Jason Kapono could just stay in front of his man once in a while, he could play more meaningful minutes and be the shooter they so desperately need.
Their failure to rebound is pretty remarkable considering they often play a lineup with three 7 footers in it. The stats don’t lie though: the Raptors are 23rd in defensive rebound rate. Games against Orlando and Boston in particular have produced lopsided rebounding lines. I would suggest the main problem here can once again be tied to the perimeter defense. When penetration occurs there has to be help from one of the big men. If a rebound comes from the shot attempt, the big men are out of position because they came to help.
With such poor defending, the Raptors would have to be scoring at a prodigious rate to be winning their fair share of games. Unfortunately, they are not. They are only 20th in the league in offensive efficiency. Chris Bosh is having an absolutely outstanding season but Andrea Bargnani has not taken the step forward the team needs him to. He has been more aggressive in bringing the ball to the basket, but he is still taking a lot of ill-advised jumpers. For that matter, Jermaine O’Neal has been a bit of a disappointment offensively and Anthony Parker has been atrocious. Overall, Parker is shooting less than 40% from the field.
All in all, not a lot of bright spots for the Raptors so far this season. The emergence of Chris Bosh as a bonafide superstar is about all Raps fans have to cheer for. I don’t think the outlook is all doom and gloom though. Bargnani has shown flashes of brilliance, if maddening inconsistency with his jumper and the play of Joey Graham in recent games has been nothing short of a revelation. That being said, their entire fate rests on the shoulders of Jermaine O’Neal. If O’Neal can find his way back to his form from ’05-06 when he averaged 20 points a game while shooting 47 percent from the field, the Raptors will make it to 45 wins or so. If he doesn’t get back to that, or, more likely, if he gets hurt again, the Raptors will struggle to 40. The coach has been thrown under the bus. The clock is now ticking on the man who assembled the team. Eighteen months ago, when the Raptors were fresh off their first Atlantic Division title, seems so long ago now.I'm Coming Back...
I've decided to dust the cobwebs off this baby and get it back into gear. I'm changing the format slightly to be an all-sports blog. First post will be up later tonight. This is going to be fun.
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