This post comes a little bit late, but the holiday season has been wildly busy for me. I am also without my usual editor pushing me to write, so I’ll have to admit that some of this has been laziness. I hope you guys are enjoying what I’ve been putting out so far. A big thanks to everyone that’s been reading along.
Without further ado, I give you the second half of my Christmas Wish List column.
Northwest Division
Denver Nuggets:
What they want:
Kenyon Martin’s contract is one of the most ridiculous in the business but at least he’s putting up something close to his career numbers. Even though the Nuggets have been good since acquiring Billups (recent slide notwithstanding), Carmelo Anthony is a shell of his former self. How can he be putting up the worst numbers of his career with an unselfish distributor like Billups? It just doesn’t make any sense
What they will get:
The Nuggets got away with highway robbery in the Iverson deal. Billups was exactly what this team needed and with Nene healthier than ever, the Nuggets will cruise to 50 wins. Unfortunately, I can’t see a way in which they get past the Lakers in the West, but they’re a whole lot closer than they were at the start of the season.
Portland Trailblazers:
What they want:
For their inexperienced young core to gain the experience necessary to contend for a championship. All the pieces are there, it’s just a question of playing together, and in the playoffs for a year or two before they are ready to win it all. The only other real concern is the health of Greg Oden. If Oden stays healthy (and figures out a way to stop committing almost 4 fouls a game), the Trailblazers are a terrifying team
What they’ll get:
Probably the happiest first round exit in league history. Things are so bright for Portland with the Roy-Aldridge-Fernandez-Oden core that it’s just a matter of time. Everyone who follows the NBA knows it, it’s virtually inevitable. Especially if Oden stays healthy, pencil them in as early contenders for 2010 and 2011.
Utah Jazz:
What they want:
To continue to fly under the radar while their team gets healthy. The Jazz are absolutely loaded in their depth, with only the Lakers surpassing them. When Carlos Boozer is back and healthy, the Jazz are a very scary team. They are so good at home that they need a top four finish in order to take advantage of those crazy Mormon fans.
What they will get:
The quietest 55 win season in NBA history. Everyone is so focused on the Big Three, Portland, Orlando and the reborn Nuggets that Utah is getting almost no coverage. The Jazz will be around until the final 8 at very least, if not the final 4.
Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder:
These two teams depress me so much I made the executive decision to combine their sections into one. It’s my blog, so I’ll do what I want.
First off, the Thunder shouldn’t even be in Oklahoma City. Seattle got absolutely jobbed. Secondly, Kevin McHale must have incriminating pictures of someone high up in the Timberwolves organization to still have his job. If it wasn’t for Kevin Durant and, to a lesser extent, Al Jefferson, there would be nothing positive to write about these two teams. May God have mercy on their fans.
Pacific Division:
L.A Lakers:
What they want:
The Lakers got exactly what they wanted with an impressive win over a Celtics team that was on an absolute rampage. Although they couldn’t stop KG or Pierce, they did a great job of keeping Allen and Rondo in check. Really, any Lakers fan is pretty happy already
What they will get:
I still wonder if the Lakers will be able to consistently play at the level that they demonstrated against Boston. This is a team that has been sleep-walking lately and lack of motivation is a scary thing. I still think they are so talented that they will cruise in the West but I don’t feel quite as good about them as I did at the outset of the season.
Phoenix Suns:
What they want:
A little more cohesion on a team with a lot of talent would be nice. If Shaquille O’Neal morphed into himself from 20 years ago, that would help too. Their management want them to slow the game down and play a half-court game. I don’t think the same can be said for a large part of their roster.
What they will get:
Rolling to dice to get the Diesel was a risky move and right now it seems to blowing up in the Suns’ face. Their offense is still plenty deadly, they are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency, but their defense is not a whole lot better despite Terry Porter’s claims to the contrary. I hate to say it, but the Suns are losing ground in the West fast. They will finish 7th or 8th and bow out in the first round
L.A Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings:
Once again, my blog, so I’ll do what I want. These three teams are all going pretty much nowheresville this season. For everyone’s talk about how strong the West is, the top teams’ records benefit greatly from having some really terrible teams to pick on.
The Clippers’ roster is a dysfunctional mess. Zach Randolph and Baron Davis, their two marquee players, are completely incompatible. Asking Randolph to run the court is futile. The Clippers want to stay relevant in L.A. I think they need to engineer a major rebuild for that to happen
Golden State is a team that plays the run and gun, but is actually a pretty terrible shooting team. Their three leading scorers, Jackson, Maggette and Crawford are all shooting less than 42 percent. Wow. They want to outscore every team they play. They won’t do that until they unload at least a couple of their gunners. At least they still have Andris Biedrins.
The Sacramento Kings’ page on ESPN.com still features Ron Artest. Here, see for yourself: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac (He’s pictured dribbling the ball in the top left corner). I think that says just about everything about the kind of season the Kings are having.
Southwest Division:
San Antonio Spurs:
What they want:
Get everyone healthy for the playoffs. With Tim Duncan, Greg Popovich, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs always have a shot to win it all. The Spurs are kind of boring to write about, but you have to respect their skill. As a basketball fan, I don’t really like them, but I do admire them.
What they will get:
I think the Spurs make it to the quarterfinals, but this is the year that their bench depth fails them. After the amazing Roger Mason, there isn’t a whole lot going for them. All that being said, never, ever, bet against Tim Duncan.
New Orleans Hornets:
What they want:
They don’t just want, they desperately need Peja Stojakovic to make their team work. For all of Chris Paul’s brilliance and David West’s skill as a scorer, the Hornets require Peja’s outside shooting to make their offense work.
What they will get:
A healthy Peja makes New Orleans a definite threat to the Lakers. Chris Paul is such a dominating guard that I can envision them taking down the Lakers and they are the only team in the West I can say that about.
Houston Rockets:
What they want:
Tracy McGrady needs to remember that he’s a good basketball player. He is ruining the Rockets, and that’s not an exaggeration in any way. They still play good defense but they need T-Mac to win in the playoffs.
What they will get:
They’re stuck in this glut of teams right below the Lakers. Like the Hornets, Jazz, Spurs and Nuggets, they have a chance to win the West, but only an outside shot. If T-Mac is over the hill, they are out in the first round. If he can find the fountain of youth, they could go to the Conference Finals or maybe even the finals.
Dallas Mavericks:
What they want:
Jason Kidd needs to revive his career just long enough to get the Mavericks through the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is still one of the league’s absolute best players, Jason Terry has been fantastic off the bench and Josh Howard has been solid but they need Kidd to run the point and distribute the ball.
What they will get:
The Kidd trade may have seemed like a good idea at the time but now he looks like he has to take Advil to get out of bed every morning. If Kidd doesn’t get rejuvenated in a real hurry, the Mavericks are doomed to a first round exit.
Memphis Grizzlies:
At least they have the Gay-Mayo combo. That’s about it.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Christmas Wishlist: Eastern Conference
In the spirit of the holiday season, it’s time to look at what each NBA team wants for Christmas. Unfortunately for some of these teams, there is no Santa in the NBA to bring them yuletide cheer. They are stuck with cold, hard reality. I’ll go through the teams by division in the Eastern Conference today and then the Western Conference on Friday.
Atlantic Division:
Boston Celtics:
What they want:
A victory over the Lakers in their marquee Christmas Day matchup would the icing on the cake of a season that has gone absolutely perfectly so far. Everything else has gotten absolutely perfectly. They have practically clinched a playoff berth already with a 13 and a half (!!) game lead over 9th place Chicago. Their season won’t really start until the playoffs
What they’ll get:
I wouldn’t bet against Boston winning tomorrow or making a return trip to the finals. As good as Cleveland and L.A have been, Boston has to be the favourite right now. Boston’s been good and Santa is going to reward them
New Jersey Nets:
What they want:
The continued speedy development of Brook Lopez and the sustained play at a ridiculously high level by Devin Harris. It would also be nice if they could get out of the Swamp.
What they’ll get:
The Nets are playing a whole lot better than pretty well anybody expected and a lot of that has to do with Devin Harris morphing into an unstoppable slashing guard. I see no reason for that to stop any time soon. Lopez has looked good in the action that he’s seen but he’s not the third scoring option they so desperately need. Much to Jay-Z’s dismay, they ain’t leaving New Jersey any time soon
Philadelphia 76ers:
What they want:
Elton Brand to live up to the massive contract they signed him to in the offseason. Someone who can make a 15 foot jumper when Brand is getting quintuple teamed in the low post.
What they’ll get:
It’s too early to make definitive judgements with regards to the Brand signing, but it does seem like they are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole. Brand is a half-court, post-up player who demands double teams. The 76ers succeeded last year because they ran like crazy and their high flyers made easy baskets in transition and thus masked their horrifying inability to make outside shots. As long as they don’t have any outside shooting, 76ers fans will be stuck watching their team trying to fast break with four players while Brand lags back court
New York Knicks:
What they want:
For LeBron to openly declare that he is coming to the Big Apple in the summer of 2010. If Nate Robinson and David Lee continue having career years to distract from the facts that the Knicks are THROWING THIS SEASON that would help ease the transition. But mostly just the LeBron thing.
What they’ll get:
LeBron is way too business savvy to tip his hand with regards to 2010. There has been a lot of speculation concerning his love of NYC but, at least for now, I can’t see him making a choice one way or another. Knicks fans, you can only hope these next two years of suffering aren’t for naught.
Toronto Raptors:
What they want:
An athletic swingman would be nice. Some secondary scoring to help Chris Bosh out a little would be appreciated. If things keep going as they are, it might be best to wish for a swift, merciful end to the season.
What they’ll get:
Another wasted all-star season from Chris Bosh. Jermaine O’Neal has been a bust so far and his contract is becoming burdensome. Jose Calderon has played well at times, but not quite at the level that some expected. Andrea Bargnani....well, you get the idea. Things aren’t getting better any time soon. Get ready for a big lump of coal.
Central Division:
Cleveland Cavaliers:
What they want:
To win an NBA title either this season or next in order to convince LeBron to stay. To that end, for the Celtics to stop being so damn good and ruining their chances of winning the Larry O’Brian Trophy.
What they’ll get:
Another fantastic season, and perhaps the first MVP trophy of many to come from LeBron. Unfortunately, what really matters is the playoffs and Boston is still the team to beat, despite Cleveland’s outstanding start. Will LeBron stay or will he go? I have no idea.
Detroit Pistons:
What they want:
To have a do-over on the Billups-Iverson trade. A return to form for Rasheed Wallace and some more minutes for Rodney Stuckey.
What they’ll get:
The Pistons must have made the Iverson trade with the goal of clearing cap space for 2010 because they could not be a worse fit for A.I. He has slowed a step and his perimeter defence has greatly deteriorate. Rasheed Wallace might be over the hill by now, he’s 34, and he isn’t getting any younger. Stuckey has looked pretty okay, but nothing to write home about this season. Joe Dumars and co. are hoping to land a big free agent to go along with Prince and Hamilton, but what those two need above all else is a high quality point guard who will get them the ball. They just traded that away. Maybe Dumars sees something I don't. Regardless, things are not looking so bright.
Milwaukee Bucks:
What they want:
To have Michael Redd stay healthy and start making jumpers again. To have Ramon Sessions continue to develop and eventually replace Luke Ridnour. A player who can create his own shot.
What they’ll get:
Richard Jefferson continuing to eat up more than 13 million in salary while shooting 42 percent from the field. Yikes. Another .500 record and a battle for the 8th playoff spot in the East. At least the Packers are good and Brett Favre is leading them to glory again. Oh wait.
Chicago Bulls:
What they want:
Considering how well Derrick Rose has turned out, I don’t think the Bulls can ask for much more. I guess if Luol Deng lived up to his mega-deal that would be nice, but I think Bulls fans are so euphoric from the arrival of Rose that everything else seems trivial.
What they’ll get:
The Bulls are another team with a chance a shot at the 8th spot in the East and not much else. I don’t think this season matters too much, the Bulls will have their chances in the coming years.
Indiana Pacers:
What they want:
For T.J Ford to do a little more passing and a little less shooting. One more play maker to help Danny Granger out. Right now, the Pacers are Granger, MeJay and a whole lot of role players.
What they’ll get:
A lottery finish and a high draft pick. Danny Granger is someone to build around and maybe they could be something in a couple of years. They aren’t there yet. If someone could talk T.J Ford into passing a bit more, he could be a deadly point guard with his tremendous speed, but I don’t know if that’s possible.
Southeast Division:
Orlando Magic:
What they want:
To contend in the Eastern Conference with Cleveland and Boston. For Jameer Nelson to continue to have a career year and good health for Mickael Pietrus.
What they’ll get:
Some people would contend that I have a bone to pick with the Magic based on the fact that I don’t include them in discussions about the NBA’s elite teams. Dwight Howard is a beast and Rashard Lewis is a very good scorer. With the addition of Mickael Pietrus, they now have a lock down defender who can pitch in offensively too. All this points to the Magic being very good but I think too much is riding on Jameer Nelson. If Nelson keeps this pace up all year, they are very close to Boston and Cleveland. If he regresses, they aren’t. Good luck Jameer!
Atlanta Hawks:
What they want:
Josh Smith getting it together would help. He’s been a little off so far this
season. If some people came to watch this exciting basketball, maybe the Phillips Arena wouldn’t seem so much like a morgue.
What they’ll get:
A great up and coming team with a bright future that will contend for years to come. Josh Smith will round back into form and the Hawks will win 45-50 games. Look for Marvin Williams to keep improving...but the fans still won’t show. It is Atlanta we are talking about after all.
Miami Heat:
What they want:
Beasley becoming a viable secondary option behind Wade would improve their chances going forward. Find a willing trade partner for Shawn Marion. I don’t think the Heat need Marion’s skill set as much as they need a true big man.
What they will get:
Dwayne Wade carrying them to a 40-45 win season and hopefully a half decent draft pick. The Heat are still a prime free agent destination, so if they unload Marion for cap room, maybe they make a run at a major free agent.
Charlotte Bobcats:
What they want:
The Bobcats are stuck in a big way. They have one useful player, Gerald Wallace, one player with potential, D.J Augustin, and a whole bunch of role players making way too much money. They need a new team.
What they will get:
Larry Brown trying to murder Sean May with his eyes before the season’s over and at best a 35 win season. Bobcats management has doomed this team for a long time to come. It’s really kind of sad.
Washington Wizards:
I can’t even bring myself to write about the Wizards. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are having good years and everybody else is a catastrophe. I don’t see Arenas’ return as saving this team either. If the Wizards win 25 games this year, it will be a success.
Atlantic Division:
Boston Celtics:
What they want:
A victory over the Lakers in their marquee Christmas Day matchup would the icing on the cake of a season that has gone absolutely perfectly so far. Everything else has gotten absolutely perfectly. They have practically clinched a playoff berth already with a 13 and a half (!!) game lead over 9th place Chicago. Their season won’t really start until the playoffs
What they’ll get:
I wouldn’t bet against Boston winning tomorrow or making a return trip to the finals. As good as Cleveland and L.A have been, Boston has to be the favourite right now. Boston’s been good and Santa is going to reward them
New Jersey Nets:
What they want:
The continued speedy development of Brook Lopez and the sustained play at a ridiculously high level by Devin Harris. It would also be nice if they could get out of the Swamp.
What they’ll get:
The Nets are playing a whole lot better than pretty well anybody expected and a lot of that has to do with Devin Harris morphing into an unstoppable slashing guard. I see no reason for that to stop any time soon. Lopez has looked good in the action that he’s seen but he’s not the third scoring option they so desperately need. Much to Jay-Z’s dismay, they ain’t leaving New Jersey any time soon
Philadelphia 76ers:
What they want:
Elton Brand to live up to the massive contract they signed him to in the offseason. Someone who can make a 15 foot jumper when Brand is getting quintuple teamed in the low post.
What they’ll get:
It’s too early to make definitive judgements with regards to the Brand signing, but it does seem like they are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole. Brand is a half-court, post-up player who demands double teams. The 76ers succeeded last year because they ran like crazy and their high flyers made easy baskets in transition and thus masked their horrifying inability to make outside shots. As long as they don’t have any outside shooting, 76ers fans will be stuck watching their team trying to fast break with four players while Brand lags back court
New York Knicks:
What they want:
For LeBron to openly declare that he is coming to the Big Apple in the summer of 2010. If Nate Robinson and David Lee continue having career years to distract from the facts that the Knicks are THROWING THIS SEASON that would help ease the transition. But mostly just the LeBron thing.
What they’ll get:
LeBron is way too business savvy to tip his hand with regards to 2010. There has been a lot of speculation concerning his love of NYC but, at least for now, I can’t see him making a choice one way or another. Knicks fans, you can only hope these next two years of suffering aren’t for naught.
Toronto Raptors:
What they want:
An athletic swingman would be nice. Some secondary scoring to help Chris Bosh out a little would be appreciated. If things keep going as they are, it might be best to wish for a swift, merciful end to the season.
What they’ll get:
Another wasted all-star season from Chris Bosh. Jermaine O’Neal has been a bust so far and his contract is becoming burdensome. Jose Calderon has played well at times, but not quite at the level that some expected. Andrea Bargnani....well, you get the idea. Things aren’t getting better any time soon. Get ready for a big lump of coal.
Central Division:
Cleveland Cavaliers:
What they want:
To win an NBA title either this season or next in order to convince LeBron to stay. To that end, for the Celtics to stop being so damn good and ruining their chances of winning the Larry O’Brian Trophy.
What they’ll get:
Another fantastic season, and perhaps the first MVP trophy of many to come from LeBron. Unfortunately, what really matters is the playoffs and Boston is still the team to beat, despite Cleveland’s outstanding start. Will LeBron stay or will he go? I have no idea.
Detroit Pistons:
What they want:
To have a do-over on the Billups-Iverson trade. A return to form for Rasheed Wallace and some more minutes for Rodney Stuckey.
What they’ll get:
The Pistons must have made the Iverson trade with the goal of clearing cap space for 2010 because they could not be a worse fit for A.I. He has slowed a step and his perimeter defence has greatly deteriorate. Rasheed Wallace might be over the hill by now, he’s 34, and he isn’t getting any younger. Stuckey has looked pretty okay, but nothing to write home about this season. Joe Dumars and co. are hoping to land a big free agent to go along with Prince and Hamilton, but what those two need above all else is a high quality point guard who will get them the ball. They just traded that away. Maybe Dumars sees something I don't. Regardless, things are not looking so bright.
Milwaukee Bucks:
What they want:
To have Michael Redd stay healthy and start making jumpers again. To have Ramon Sessions continue to develop and eventually replace Luke Ridnour. A player who can create his own shot.
What they’ll get:
Richard Jefferson continuing to eat up more than 13 million in salary while shooting 42 percent from the field. Yikes. Another .500 record and a battle for the 8th playoff spot in the East. At least the Packers are good and Brett Favre is leading them to glory again. Oh wait.
Chicago Bulls:
What they want:
Considering how well Derrick Rose has turned out, I don’t think the Bulls can ask for much more. I guess if Luol Deng lived up to his mega-deal that would be nice, but I think Bulls fans are so euphoric from the arrival of Rose that everything else seems trivial.
What they’ll get:
The Bulls are another team with a chance a shot at the 8th spot in the East and not much else. I don’t think this season matters too much, the Bulls will have their chances in the coming years.
Indiana Pacers:
What they want:
For T.J Ford to do a little more passing and a little less shooting. One more play maker to help Danny Granger out. Right now, the Pacers are Granger, MeJay and a whole lot of role players.
What they’ll get:
A lottery finish and a high draft pick. Danny Granger is someone to build around and maybe they could be something in a couple of years. They aren’t there yet. If someone could talk T.J Ford into passing a bit more, he could be a deadly point guard with his tremendous speed, but I don’t know if that’s possible.
Southeast Division:
Orlando Magic:
What they want:
To contend in the Eastern Conference with Cleveland and Boston. For Jameer Nelson to continue to have a career year and good health for Mickael Pietrus.
What they’ll get:
Some people would contend that I have a bone to pick with the Magic based on the fact that I don’t include them in discussions about the NBA’s elite teams. Dwight Howard is a beast and Rashard Lewis is a very good scorer. With the addition of Mickael Pietrus, they now have a lock down defender who can pitch in offensively too. All this points to the Magic being very good but I think too much is riding on Jameer Nelson. If Nelson keeps this pace up all year, they are very close to Boston and Cleveland. If he regresses, they aren’t. Good luck Jameer!
Atlanta Hawks:
What they want:
Josh Smith getting it together would help. He’s been a little off so far this
season. If some people came to watch this exciting basketball, maybe the Phillips Arena wouldn’t seem so much like a morgue.
What they’ll get:
A great up and coming team with a bright future that will contend for years to come. Josh Smith will round back into form and the Hawks will win 45-50 games. Look for Marvin Williams to keep improving...but the fans still won’t show. It is Atlanta we are talking about after all.
Miami Heat:
What they want:
Beasley becoming a viable secondary option behind Wade would improve their chances going forward. Find a willing trade partner for Shawn Marion. I don’t think the Heat need Marion’s skill set as much as they need a true big man.
What they will get:
Dwayne Wade carrying them to a 40-45 win season and hopefully a half decent draft pick. The Heat are still a prime free agent destination, so if they unload Marion for cap room, maybe they make a run at a major free agent.
Charlotte Bobcats:
What they want:
The Bobcats are stuck in a big way. They have one useful player, Gerald Wallace, one player with potential, D.J Augustin, and a whole bunch of role players making way too much money. They need a new team.
What they will get:
Larry Brown trying to murder Sean May with his eyes before the season’s over and at best a 35 win season. Bobcats management has doomed this team for a long time to come. It’s really kind of sad.
Washington Wizards:
I can’t even bring myself to write about the Wizards. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are having good years and everybody else is a catastrophe. I don’t see Arenas’ return as saving this team either. If the Wizards win 25 games this year, it will be a success.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
I Love the NBA
After finishing my post on the Big Three, I watched most of the fourth quarter of the Trail Blazers-Suns game. First of all, absolutely fantastic game. Brandon Roy goes off for a career high 52 points and both teams shoot over 50% from the field. Boston, L.A and Cleveland may be the teams this year, but Portland is definitely the team of the future. Second of all, I now love Portland fans. I'm sure most of you have already seen the video of the dancing fans from the highlights, but if you haven't, please check it out. I'll try to post a link to a video tomorrow morning in the a.m.
The Big Three
I hate to take all the suspense out of this engrossing NBA season, but I’ve come upon a truth: only the Celtics, Lakers and Cavaliers have a chance to win the 2009 NBA championship. As of this writing, their combined record stands at 66-9, giving them an outrageous .880 winning percentage. For all three teams to continue winning at this clip seems to be asking a bit much, but I can envision a situation where all three teams win at least 65 games. Boston and Cleveland will be pushing each other all the way down to the wire for the 1st overall seed in the East and the Lakers have the deepest roster in the association.
The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.
The Case for the Lakers:
Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.
The Case for the Celtics:
The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.
The Case for the Cavaliers:
In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.
The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.
With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.
It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.
The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.
The Case for the Lakers:
Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.
The Case for the Celtics:
The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.
The Case for the Cavaliers:
In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.
The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.
With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.
It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Quick NBA Thoughts
As the NBA season chugs past the 25 game mark, a separation between the haves and the have-nots is beginning to take place. There are three legitimate juggernauts (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers), ten good teams with a chance of making noise in the playoffs and then everyone else. Twenty-five games into the season, there are thirteen teams that have won eleven games or less. That, my friends, is ugly. On the whole, however, I think the disparity is actually good for the fans. If you are a fan of the Thunder, it’s not much fun to watch your team lose 117-82 to Cleveland, but, as a fan of basketball, the level of play amongst the stronger teams has been an absolute joy to watch. I cannot wait for the L.A-Boston game on Christmas Day. Cleveland – Denver on Friday should be great and the Detroit – Atlanta game on Sunday will be good too. It seems like every day or two, there is a good to great basketball game being played. The game tonight between the Celtics and Hawks was a great example of how much fun a basketball game can be. There was intense play on both ends of the court, skilled players making big shots at the end and the game wasn’t decided until the final buzzer.
I’ve been following the NBA closely for about eight years now and I can’t remember being so excited about the league. There has been a major influx of high quality players in the last five years or so and the level of play has risen accordingly. Even the bad teams have diamonds in the rough. O.J Mayo and Derrick Rose have looked fantastic and Michael Beasley has shown flashes of brilliance. As a Raptors fan, it’s been tough. Their performance against Dallas tonight didn’t exactly give me a lot of hope. Every time I’m down though, I’ll flip to SportsCentre and see a clip of LeBron James absolutely destroying the rim on a fast break. I am immediately reminded of why I love basketball.
On Thursday, I’ll have an in-depth post up about the big three and why I think no one else will challenge for the title.
I’ve been following the NBA closely for about eight years now and I can’t remember being so excited about the league. There has been a major influx of high quality players in the last five years or so and the level of play has risen accordingly. Even the bad teams have diamonds in the rough. O.J Mayo and Derrick Rose have looked fantastic and Michael Beasley has shown flashes of brilliance. As a Raptors fan, it’s been tough. Their performance against Dallas tonight didn’t exactly give me a lot of hope. Every time I’m down though, I’ll flip to SportsCentre and see a clip of LeBron James absolutely destroying the rim on a fast break. I am immediately reminded of why I love basketball.
On Thursday, I’ll have an in-depth post up about the big three and why I think no one else will challenge for the title.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Burnett Flies the Coop
A.J Burnett’s signing with the Yankees this past weekend was an important moment for the Toronto Blue Jays and their plans for 2009 and beyond. On Friday, Burnett and the Yankees agreed on a 5 year, 82.5 million dollar contract. Losing Burnett will hurt the Blue Jays, he put together an outstanding stretch to close out the season. The question boils down to this: is losing Burnett for the amount of money the Yankees paid him a major loss or not? The answer is, surprisingly, not that clear.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.
All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.
The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.
All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.
The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.
Friday, December 12, 2008
Proven Wrong
So I write my first piece of the re-launch about how the Raptors are not destined for greatness and they go out and slap New Jersey around to the tune of 101-79. Sure makes me look an idiot. In this case, I hope I'm wrong.
Evaluating the Raptors
It may be early in the season but it’s not too soon to begin passing judgment on the Toronto Raptors. There are two ways to look at their performance so far. They are either a good team that is vastly underperforming or they are a team that entered the season with unrealistically high expectations. I think the answer is closer to the latter than it is to the former. They aren’t as bad as their record would indicate but they also aren’t going to be winning 50 games with the roster they have. So far, the Raptors have received outstanding play from one player (Chris Bosh), very good play from another (Jose Calderon) and very little of value from anyone else.
As a team, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are giving up 102.0 points per game and, more tellingly, rank 23rd overall in defensive efficiency. The reasons for this are myriad but come down primarily to two: weak perimeter defending and an inability to rebound. One of their two best offensive players, Jose Calderon, is being torched by every player he guards. When Calderon gets beat, someone has to come with help and smart point guards are kicking it out to wide open shooters. Also, their best outside shooter, and someone they desperately need on the floor to really make their offense click, couldn’t guard me. If Jason Kapono could just stay in front of his man once in a while, he could play more meaningful minutes and be the shooter they so desperately need.
Their failure to rebound is pretty remarkable considering they often play a lineup with three 7 footers in it. The stats don’t lie though: the Raptors are 23rd in defensive rebound rate. Games against Orlando and Boston in particular have produced lopsided rebounding lines. I would suggest the main problem here can once again be tied to the perimeter defense. When penetration occurs there has to be help from one of the big men. If a rebound comes from the shot attempt, the big men are out of position because they came to help.
With such poor defending, the Raptors would have to be scoring at a prodigious rate to be winning their fair share of games. Unfortunately, they are not. They are only 20th in the league in offensive efficiency. Chris Bosh is having an absolutely outstanding season but Andrea Bargnani has not taken the step forward the team needs him to. He has been more aggressive in bringing the ball to the basket, but he is still taking a lot of ill-advised jumpers. For that matter, Jermaine O’Neal has been a bit of a disappointment offensively and Anthony Parker has been atrocious. Overall, Parker is shooting less than 40% from the field.
All in all, not a lot of bright spots for the Raptors so far this season. The emergence of Chris Bosh as a bonafide superstar is about all Raps fans have to cheer for. I don’t think the outlook is all doom and gloom though. Bargnani has shown flashes of brilliance, if maddening inconsistency with his jumper and the play of Joey Graham in recent games has been nothing short of a revelation. That being said, their entire fate rests on the shoulders of Jermaine O’Neal. If O’Neal can find his way back to his form from ’05-06 when he averaged 20 points a game while shooting 47 percent from the field, the Raptors will make it to 45 wins or so. If he doesn’t get back to that, or, more likely, if he gets hurt again, the Raptors will struggle to 40. The coach has been thrown under the bus. The clock is now ticking on the man who assembled the team. Eighteen months ago, when the Raptors were fresh off their first Atlantic Division title, seems so long ago now.I'm Coming Back...
I've decided to dust the cobwebs off this baby and get it back into gear. I'm changing the format slightly to be an all-sports blog. First post will be up later tonight. This is going to be fun.
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