Second Half Review and Preview, Part II: N.L

The second part of my season in review is upon us. I hope you all are enjoying the site’s change in appearance. I’m going for something of a minimalist look these days. I’ve been really pleased with how many people have been checking my work out, so if you like what you’re seeing so far, please tell a friend.

We’ll kick things off in the National League’s East division.

N.L EAST:

It used to be that you could count on three things in life: Death, taxes and the Atlanta Braves winning the N.L East. However, those days now seem long gone. Unless there is a minor miracle, this will be the third consecutive season that a team other than the Braves has won the N.L East after more than a decade of Atlanta supremacy. The Phillies and Mets look poised to do battle all the way until the very end of the year with Atlanta and Florida fighting to stay at .500. The Washington Nationals will just get their asses handed to them.

The knock on the Phillies has always been that they live and die by their offense, slugging out 10-9 wins. This year, that isn’t actually true. Their offense has remained impressive, ranking 2^nd in the N.L in runs scored, but their pitching has actually held its own with a team ERA of 3.90. It would surprise no one then that the Phillies have the second best run differential in the N.L and fourth best in all of baseball. Put two and two together and you’ve got to believe the Phillies are going to make a run in the second half. With their three headed monster in Burrell, Utley and Howard, the Phillies should never be short for runs. Now that the pitching staff has got it together, thanks to Cole Hamels and a ridiculous bullpen, I expect the Phillies to wind up around 95 wins.

After last year’s epic collapse, the Mets felt they had no choice to shake things up. Bringing in the best pitcher in all of baseball is a pretty good way to shake things up. The Mets started the season as if they were half asleep but since that time, they’ve turned things around nicely. The pitching is humming along with a team ERA of 3.95 and they are 4^th in the N.L in runs at 460. Johan has been great (2.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and the supporting cast has been good enough to keep the Mets close until the bullpen can come in and do their job. Wagner, Schoeneweiss, Feliciano and Joe Smith are all having solid seasons out of the ‘pen. The offensive work is done mostly by David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltra. After a less than stellar year in 2007, it’s nice to see Reyes really getting it done this year. I think the Mets really get it going in the second half fight the Phillies tooth and nail to 95 wins.

The Braves and Marlins should fight closely for the third spot. The Marlins have a very promising young core with Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham, Cody Ross, Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs all under the age of 30. If they could just find some pitching to help Ricky Norasco and Scott Olsen, who have been solid if unspectacular, they could turn this division into a three horse race. I think we’ll hear from Florida again soon.

The Braves, meanwhile, continue their slow slide into oblivion. Jair Jurrens and Tim Hudson has kept their pitching near the top of the N.L but their offense is a three man show: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira. Everyone else on the Braves has, well, failed to hit the ball. Gregor Blanco and Jeff Francoeur in particular have been doing more harm than good. With Hudson and Jones aging, I think this season is only the tip of the iceberg. The Braves will barely make it to 80 wins this year and probably less in the years to come.

The Washington Nationals...no. Just ,no.

N.L CENTRAL:

The Central is home to probably the best team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs, a couple of wild card contenders, Milwaukee Brewers and St.Louis Cardinals, and then a whole bunch of nobodies. The Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros all have approximately a zero percent chance of winning the division. They might even have a negative chance, if it were possible.

The Cubs have just about everything going for them right now. They have the best offense in the N.L as well as the third best pitching staff by team ERA. And that was before they added flamethrower Rich Harden. Ever since Jim Edmonds drank from the Holy Grail, how else has his miraculous turn around really been possible, the Cubs are boasting 6, 6!, regulars with OPS over .830. (For the suffering Blue Jays fans out there, we don’t have a single, not one, hitter with an OPS over .830. Woo! Go jays!). I don’t think Ryan Dempster will keep pitching a full run below his career ERA but if Harden stays healthy, there is no way the Cubs don’t win 100 games and probably the National Leage. It’s a good time to be a Cubs fan.

The Brewers and Cardinals may not really challenge the Cubs, but they should wage a good battle for the Wild Card. The Cardinals are getting another monstrous season from Albert Pujols but a lot of their success is due to the surprising play of Ryan Ludwick and the resurgence of Troy Glaus. Besides Kyle Lohse and his surprising 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre. For this reason, I can’t see the Cardinals holding off the Brewers down the homestretch. They are simply too thin pitching-wise. The Cardinals will finish with 85-90 wins, well above what any reasonable person could have expected from them at the start of the year.

With the addition of CC Sabathia, the Brew Crew is going to win the Wild Card. I’m calling it now. Their offensive core, with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and J.J Hardy will score runs. Fielder, in fact, is still performing below his career averages and I think he’ll keep getting better as the season goes on. Ben Sheets, and now CC, will provide superb pitching and Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will be just decent enough to win some games. Their bullpen has also received some stellar performances from Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres. If those two keep their career years going, there’s nothing else stopping Milwaukee.

The other three teams in the N.L Central all have some strong suits but glaring weaknesses. The Pirates score a ton of runs, but also sport a team ERA of 5.24. That is unsightly. Cincinnati and Houston are only marginally better with 4.43 and 4.49 respectively. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at least have light at the end of tunnel with young stars like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit for the Pirates and Edison Volquez, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips for the Reds. The Astros are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and a bunch of spare parts. Even Roy Oswalt has been underwhelming this year. It’s a tough time to be an Astros fan.

N.L WEST:

The West has been the worst division in baseball. The division leading Diamondbacks are under .500. The second place Dodgers are 46-49 and still well within range of a division title. Hell, even the 40-55 Giants could make a claim to have playoff aspirations. San Diego’s 37-58 record leaves them only 10 games out of first.

The Diamondbacks are the team with the most hope of this sorry lot. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are superb pitchers. The team pitching has been very respectable on the whole, with a 3.92 team ERA. The offense, however, has not. Chris Young and Eric Byrnes have been terrible and no one is having a particularly stellar season to replace them. Conor Jackson is having the best of them but while his .846 OPS is strong, it’s nothing to write home about. The Diamondbacks, with their current rotation in which the mummified body of Randy Johnson is pitching 200 innings per season, are a big bat away from breaking out. I think they finish in the 85 win range on the back of Haren and Webb. They’ll win the division of crappiness.

The Dodgers have two of the worst contracts in all of baseball: Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Their other major problem: this guy has 107 at-bats, this guy has 266 and this guy has 285. That, my friends, is a lot of outs. If it wasn’t for their pitching, N.L leading 3.64 ERA, this team would be absolutely nowhere. They are, in a lot of ways, the Toronto Blue Jays of the National League. The only difference between the two teams is the division they play in. In the A.L East, a sub 500 record gets you fourth place and fans calling for the G.M’s head. In the N.L West, you have a great shot at a division title. The Dodgers will fall in the 80-85 win range and just miss the playoffs behind the Diamondbacks.

The San Francisco Giants have Tim Lincecum and that’s about it. Jose Sanchez and Matt Cain have shown signs of promise but nothing to indicate a great turn around any time soon. The Giants need to revamp their entire offense before they get anywhere. They’ll win about 70 games this year.

The feel-good stories of last year, the Colorado Rockies, are not feeling so good this year. Matt Holliday is having another monster season, .975 OPS, and the Rockies are scoring runs in bunches. Their pitching, however, has been terrifying to watch. Aaron Cook is the only one doing respectable work. His 3.57 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are both career bests, but no one else in their starting rotation has an ERA below 4. Most notably, Jeff Francis has been beaten around to the tune of a 5.17 ERA. It’s amazing how a 22 game winning streak makes people forget you don’t have any pitching.

Did you know that Jake Peavy is having a better season offensively than the Padres’ starting shortstop and both of their catchers?That about sums their season up. If they make it to 75 wins, it’ll be a miracle.

I hope you guys enjoyed my look into baseball’s first half of the season. I’ll be back with another column Friday evening.

NB

Second Half Review and Preview, Part I: A.L

First off, thank you once again to everyone that has been reading the site so far. It’s been a pleasure writing the articles and I hope you guys have enjoyed reading them. I apologize for the delay in getting this article out. I was planning on writing something short, but it came out as a bit of a magnum opus. I hope you guys like reading about baseball!

As usual, if it so pleases you, leave a comment at the bottom of the article or e-mail me at noheartball@gmail.com. Finally, if you like what I’m doing, tell a friend.

I’ll divide the preview division by division. It’s a fairly in-depth process, with a team by team analysis, so the column will once again appear in two parts. Part I today and Part II on Wednesday. There should be a lot to look forward to in the coming months, so strap yourselves in.

A.L EAST:

The American League East has been one of the most fascinating divisions in all of baseball through the first half of the season. Most people expected the Red Sox and Yankees to run away with the division, with the Blue Jays possibly challenging if you were a deluded member of the Toronto media. However, Tampa Bay has seemingly come out of nowhere to make this interesting. I know they have lost their last 7 games. That is not a good thing. I still think they have a great shot to win 90-95 games and make life miserable for Boston and the Yanks. Their biggest strength is their pitching, which has been uniformly strong. Scott Kazmir, when healthy, has been excellent but James Shields, Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza all surprisingly have sub-4.00 ERAs with reasonable WHIPs. If some of their offensive players like Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford round back into form and Eric Hinske continues his resurrection, the Rays will contend.

I feel I don’t even need to write about the Red Sox and yet I will. When Big Papi comes back, their offense will be stupid good again. J.D Drew, Mike Lowell, Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis have been so good that they are making up for the horrific seasons that Lugo, Ellsbury and in particular Varitek are having. Their pitching is also stacked with Beckett, Dice-K , Papelbon and friends striking fear into the hearts of opposing hitters. It would be a major surprise if the Sawx didn’t run away with the division.

I’ve already a fairly in-depth piece about the Jays, but in case you missed it, I called for 80-84 wins and a fourth place finish in the division. If Halladay is serious about moving on if the Jays don’t build a contender, J.P better get his act together ASAP.

The Orioles are a lot better than I thought they would be. I don’t think they will quite keep up the pace they have set for themselves but the future looks bright with Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones. Markakis in particular has been having a great season to the tune of an .892 OPS and 14 Home Runs. Brian Roberts is also having another solid year, but I can’t help but wonder if the Orioles aren’t wasting his prime years. If they can find some good pitching prospects, they might be well served to make a move. Speaking of the pitching, they need to do something about it. Their lone bright spot has been Jeremy Guthrie and his solid 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. I’ll describe their rest of their pitchers in one word: Yikes. Bonus: Adam Jones profile picture on ESPN.com is pure gold. . How did he let that be put up?

The other perennial power in the A.L East is the New York Yankees. As usual, the Yankees boast some of the highest priced talent in all of baseball. With their offensive talents, their pitching should only have to be mediocre for the Yaks to be powerhouses. The pitching has mostly been there, including notable performances by Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera and the miracle resurrection of Mike Mussina. However, the offensive talent hasn’t quite been performing up to snuff. I’m not suggesting they won’t make a run but a lot of the guys they are paying big bucks are not delivering. The two biggest busts so far are Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, though I will admit Cano has maybe turned the corner. However, the relative underachievement of the Yankees is not just on these two. The skipper himself, Derek Jeter, has played poorly so far this year. A .740 OPS is simply not going to do it when you are being paid 21 million dollars a year. If Jeter, now 34, is in a decline phase, then the Yankees are in big trouble. If he comes back around, maybe they make a run to the playoffs. Giambi and A-Rod are carrying this team so far. Mr. Jeter, the ball is in your court. My guess is they put it together, but maybe not quite all the way and end up in the 90-95 win range.

A.L CENTRAL:

The Central was supposedly going to be a battle between Detroit and Cleveland for supremacy. Today, those predictions seem particularly backwards when one considers Detroit’s .500 record and Cleveland’s not so stellar 41-53 showing. I’ll start with the biggest surprise of the division: the Chicago White Sox. After last year’s debacle, no one expected them to be first in their division this late in the season, not to mention contending for the best record in baseball. The main reason for their success is the pitching staff’s return to its 2005 form. Led by second year starter John Danks and his 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, the White Sox have the second best team ERA in the A.L at a sparkling 3.57. Gavin Floyd and Mark Buerhle have also contributed strong seasons and, until his injury, Bobby Jenks had been solid out of the bullpen. Their offense has been resting mostly on the shoulders of Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin, and Jim Thome. Dye and Thome are proven, if aging, commodities but Quentin has been a bit of a surprise. With no one else having an OPS over .800, and only Nick Swisher as a possible candidate to turn it up in the second half, the Sox will need everything they can get out of Thome, Dye and Quentin. I think they will falter a little along the way and end with around 90 wins.

I will go out on a limb and say that the Twins are a fluke at this stage in the season. They are ridiculously thin offensively, with Morneau and Mauer doing almost all the heavy lifting and their pitching isn’t too hot either. Kevin Slowey, and his magnificent 4.69 K/BB ratio,might one day become the ace that they need, but he’s not quite there yet. Joe Nathan has been his usual spectacular self out of the bullpen but I just don’t see it with these guys. I think in a couple of years Delmon Young might be really good, but he’s not there yet. When he’s been in the lineup, Nick Punto has been solid as well, but again, the Twins are a year or two away. I think they fade and end up with about 80 wins.

Detroit was the team that everyone picked at the start of the season to win the division and maybe even the A.L and then the World Series. They came out of the gate absolutely awfully and have been struggling to recover since then. As would be expected, their pitching has been mediocre at best, ranking 11^th in the A.L in team ERA. However, the team’s overall failure so far can be directly attributed to an offense that stalled for large chunks of the season. With the exception of the surprising Marcus Thames, everyone has under-performed. Magglio’s .861 OPS is below his career average and certainly below last season’s fabulous year, Curtis Granderson’s .838 is good but again, not what was expected and Miguel Cabrera’s .837 is well below what was needed. I haven’t even mentioned the absolutely awful season that Gary Sheffield is having, or the even worse one that Edgar Renteria is putting together. I don’t see their pitching getting much better, but maybe the offense will kick into gear long enough for the Tigers to make a run at the division. I think they get it going and finish in the 92-93 win area.

The poor, poor Royals of Kansas City just break my heart. They haven’t been awful this year, but aside from Zach Greinke and David DeJesus, the Royals have been a giant pile of mediocrity. Their prized draft pick, Alex Gordon, hasn’t exactly been lighting it up and there’s no reason to believe Joey Gathright will improve his horrific .570 OPS. I applaud the Royals for over-achieving thus far, but I think they are going to fall on their faces in the second half. I foresee something in the 70-75 win range as the resurgent Tigers, in particular, lay a beating on them.

The Cleveland Indians have been the biggest disappointment in the A.L so far this year. They were 1 game away from the World Series last year, but this year they aren’t even going to smell the playoffs. CC Sabathia was terrible at the start of the year and their offense, once feared, has been nothing to write home about. Besides Grady Sizemore’s excellence, and Ben Fransisco’s surprising play, the rest of the Cleveland Indians have faltered badly. It’s hard to lay the blame on one person; it’s just been an all-around failure. This team has a lot of talent, so I’ll write this half off as an anomaly, but they are so far back that the post season is just a dream.

A.L WEST:

The division leading Anaheim Angels are a one trick pony, but it is one hell of a trick. Vladimir Guerrero is the only one carrying this offense so runs have been scarce. Meanwhile, their pitching has been fabulous. John Lackey has been great and Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana have been having the first half of their lives. Both of their ERA’s are more than a run lower than their career averages. I’m inclined to believe this will continue for Santana because of his fabulous K/BB ratio but Saunders is a little more worrisome. Weaver and Garland have been more than adequate 4^th and 5^th starters and K-Rod has been, well, K-Rod. The pitching will never be the problem, but unless they find someone, anyone, to help Vladimir, the Angels will always contend but never win it all. They’ll probably still win the division with 90-95 wins.

I should preface the Oakland section by saying that Billy Beane is some sort of miracle man. Oakland has somehow stayed in contention despite dealing away proven commodity after proven commodity. Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and, in particular, Justin Duchsherer have far exceeded expectations and kept the A’s staff as one of the best in all of baseball. However, with the departure of Rich Harden, I can’t imagine they will continue on a winning pace this year. Their offence is even worse than the Angels. It’s unwise to bet against Billy Beane, but when Jack Cust’s .815 OPS is leading the way and you just dealt your ace for prospects, the season might be in the toilet. I think the A’s will find a way to win 80 games but no more.

The Texas Rangers are the complete opposite of the A’s and Angels. Their offense is outstanding, boasting studs such as Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley but their pitching cannot be described in a friendly manner. Their supposed best starter, Vincente Padilla, has a 4.70 ERA. The Rangers have surprised to the tune of a 50-46 record, but their pitching is so horrible that I can’t see them keeping it up. If someone made a mash of the Angels starting pitchers and the Rangers hitters, the creation would be absolutely unstoppable. Until then, the Rangers are going to be stuck trying to slug out 10-9 wins

I just have two things to say about Seattle’s season so far. This guy is your best hitter. And this guy has pitched almost 120 innings so far this year.

Yikes.

Part II comes tomorrow!

Blue Jays Mid-Season Report Card

Seeing as how I’m a Blue Jays fan and all, I thought I would give my thoughts on their season up until this point. I watched the game tonight before rendering my final verdict. I should say that though the outcome didn’t really affect my opinion of the Jays’ season, it only furthered my admiration for Roy Halladay. And in some ways it furthered my sympathy for him. Every year, the Doc goes out and gives the Jays quality start after quality start and he constantly gets rewarded with mediocre team after mediocre team. If anyone on the Jays deserves a team that can actually compete for the playoffs, it’s Halladay.

I’ll divide the report card into sub-categories and highlight the performance of individuals that I feel are particularly relevant to the grade their category was assigned. Kind of how in the way that David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro are relevant to the Jays slugging .382 as a team.

Pitching:

A cursory glance at the Jays’ pitching numbers reveals this as their true strength. Their team ERA at 3.70, puts them fourth in all of baseball. It’s not smoke and mirrors either. Their team WHIP, Ks/9 and K/BB are all top 10 in MLB. Their biggest strength in this regard has been their starting pitching. Halladay’s numbers are all superb, but expected, so I won’t even list them here. It’s been the work of Shaun Marcum (until his injury) , Jesse Litsch and Scott Downs that have been even better than expected. Marcum’s 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 3.19 K/BB are all superb and way up from where he was last year. If Marcum comes back pitching strongly after the All-Star break, he could turn out to be a vital key to any Blue Jays success down the road.

Litsch worries me a bit more than Marcum, even more so because of his swoon of late. Since his gem against Oakland on May 29^th, he’s been having a rough go of it. His ERA has jumped from 3.18 up to 4.01. However, he is still putting strong numbers, especially for a projected number 5 starter. Additionally, with a salary of less than $400,000, he is one of the biggest bargains on the roster.

Downs has been absolutely lights out coming out of the bullpen. He has somehow transformed himself from a pitcher with a career 4.14 ERA into a highly dependable setup man. I admit that last season worked out well, but looking at Downs’ career numbers before that, there was no reason to believe it was nothing more than aberration. His 7.80 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP are both solid indicators that his solid season could well continue.

While Halladay has been brilliant as expected and Downs, Litsch and Marcum have all exceeded expectations, not all of the Blue Jays pitchers are contributing in the same way. A.J Burnett in particular has been a source of frustration for any loyal Jays fan. His “stuff” may be excellent but he’s been beaten around like a rag doll this year to the tune of a 5.23 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. That would be bad for a number 5 starter, let alone a supposed number 2. Since he is probably leaving at the end of the year, anything the Blue Jays can get in return for him should be welcome.

Overall Grade for Pitching: A

Hitting:

Anyone who follows the Blue Jays is aware of their well documented problems scoring runs. I’ll just throw out a couple of numbers to highlight that fact. They rank second last in the A.L in runs scored, third from the bottom in slugging percentage and 9^th in OPS. Their biggest weakness is the complete and utter inability to hit the long ball. They are dead last in the American League in home runs hit at 62.

So who’s responsible for these numbers? From a positive stand point, and for the Jays offense there isn’t much, Joe Inglett has impressed in his playing time. His .818 OPS leads the team and his .367 OBP puts him second on the club. The more at-bats Cito finds for Inglett, the better. Rolen’s .807 OPS is pretty alright too but after that there’s no one else above .800. To give you an idea of how bad this is, there are two teams in the A.L, Boston and Texas that have TEAM OPS over .800. The Blue Jays don’t need to be that much of an offensive juggernaut to succeed given how strong their pitching is, but I think an adequate description for the Jays’ offense this year is kitten-like. They’re just so cute and cuddly!

Why the disturbingly low offensive output? The people most responsible for this are David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. Between the three of them, they have managed to hit 5 home runs, 37 doubles and 1 triple in almost 700 at-bats. This, my friends , is a problem. It is a particularly big problem since none of them is extraordinarily good at getting on base. Eckstein’s .360 OBP and Scutaro’s .351 are OKAY but Aaron Hill’s is a putrid .324. The biggest upgrade the Jays could make would be in taking the bats out of the hands of these three players.

Overall Grade for Hitting: D-

Management:

While a team only succeeds or fails as much as its players succeed or fail, the people responsible for putting a team together are evaluated based on the successes or failures of these same players. Since J.P Riccardi is the face of management, he is the one on trial here as it were.

His biggest moves this past offseason were the signing of Rios to a long-term contract extension, re-upping Scott Downs, and bringing in Rolen and Eckstein. I would say two of those moves were successes, one was a wash and one was a failure. Rios has struggled this year, but one has to assume the first 90 or so games of this season are less indicative of his seasons to come than his two seasons’ worth of work before that. He seemed to turning into a .850 to .875 OPS type of guy with solid defence to boot. Those aren’t superstar numbers, but I’d want him on my team and J.P signed him to a reasonable contract.

Riccardi’s other success was the re-upping of Scott Downs. I’ve already been over my appreciation for Downs’ work, so I won’t go over that again, but his contract is also very reasonable. So, once again, I will give credit where credit is due.

If Riccardi deserves praise so too does he deserve criticism. The acquisition of David Eckstein has been an absolute disaster. The man can’t hit or play defence to save his life. How many times has he one hopped throws across the diamond? The only thing he has going for him is that he is “gritty”. This is a nice way of saying he’s 5”6 and sucks at baseball. David Eckstein must go for the Blue Jays to be successful.

Furthermore, Riccardi’s failure to recognize the Blue Jays desperate offensive needs is baffling. Vernon Wells is an alright hitter but not someone you want to pin your offensive hopes on. The same applies for Lyle Overbay and a now aging Scott Rolen. There is no way anyone could have objectively looked at their lineup at the start of the season and say their offence would be good enough to win the division. Projected starters Gregg Zaun, Eckstein, Hill and Stewart are all offensive black holes. In failing to address their glaring need for power, Riccardi hamstrung what could have otherwise been a promising season. It might be time for the slick-haired one to move on.

Overall Grade for Management: C

Overall Team Grade: C+

The main reason for the above grade is that so much could be made out of this Blue Jays team. A lot of the pieces are there so their performance is slightly disappointing, but had to be expected when their offense was objectively examined. The core of a good team is certainly there, but without the infusion of one or two power bats, and I’m talking a Vlad Guerrero type player here, there is little hope of the post-season. As far as the rest of the season goes, I imagine it will end with 80-84 wins and hopefully big changes at season’s end. Being a Jays fan is certainly frustrating, but hey, I could be a Royals fan.

All-Star Game: Picks and Snubs Part II

Thanks a lot to those of you who took the time to read part I of the article. If you’re new to the blog, just scroll down to the bottom of the page and you can catch up in no time. As usual, I can be reached at noheartball@gmail.com or leave a comment below the article. I’ll follow the same format as last time, except possibly with more incredulity as there were some real doozies on the N.L side of things.

Definitely Should Have Been There:

Pat Burrell:

I’m not sure what more Pat the Bat could have done to get on the All-Star team this year. He is currently second among National League outfielders in OPS and first in home runs. He doesn’t just hit for power either, he is second among all N.L outfielders in On-Base Percentage at .409. The man does not make outs. I will grant you that he isn’t known for his defence, but Matt Holliday isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart himself and he made the team with nearly identical numbers. In fact, Burrell has 8 more HRs than Holliday. And that’s just pointing how well Burrell compares to the BEST offensive outfielders in the N.L. I haven’t even mentioned the inclusion of Kosuke Fukudome and his just-above-average .811 OPS. Burrell is OBLITERATING Fukudome in every meaningful statistical category. Congratulations Cubs fans, you really pulled a fast one here.

J.J Hardy / Jose Reyes:

I have absolutely no idea why Miguel Tejada is ahead of either of these guys. Miguel’s chugging along with a .764 OPS and 10 homers, respectable enough numbers for a shortstop, but Hardy and Reyes check in at .857 with 12 homers and .842 with 9 homers respectively. If I had to pick between Hardy and Reyes, it would be a tough choice but I think I’d go with Hardy because he’s shown more power this year and Reyes has been a butcher in the field to the tune of 12 errors already this year. If you wanted to tell me that Reyes was better because of his base stealing abilities I wouldn’t argue too much with you though. The gist is that somebody should be replacing Tejada here.

Jason Bay:

Bay has been having a monster season with 17 homers and a .922 OPS as of this writing. His exclusion from the team is particularly head-scratching when you consider that his teammate Nate McLouth is essentially going in his place. Bay is ahead of McLouth in every meaningful statistical category and most importantly holds a large lead in the OBP department. McLouth has been playing well but Bay has just simply been better, especially of late. He’s also ahead of Soriano and Braun, who were named as starters, in almost every single offensive category. What does a good old Canadian boy have to do to make it to the mid-summer classic?

Any Living Organism Instead of Brian Wilson:

Much like the Varitek selection, Brian Wilson’s All-Star game appearance is mind blowing. He has been the epitome of average with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and his pedestrian 2.44K/BB ratio. Now. I realize that he has 24 saves and that somehow, in the minds of some, this makes up for everything cited above. You know what it means that Wilson has 24 saves with the kind of numbers that I just mentioned? That any average major league pitcher, thrust into Wilson’s role, could have 24 saves. Wilson is perfectly mediocre, he just happens to be mediocre during the ninth inning of Giants games instead of the 6^th or 7^th inning like most other relief pitchers.

An Argument Could Be Made:

Johan Santana:

Johan isn’t having his usual A+ season but his numbers, 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 3.41K/BB ratio are still near the very top of the league. As with John Danks from the other column, the only reason I can really see for Santana’s exclusion is his meagre win-loss record. At 7-7 he isn’t blowing the competition away, but that’s more a product of the Mets struggling offensively than Santana being sub-par. He’s still been one of the best pitchers in the National League for the first half of the season but I guess this once someone else will take his usual spot at the All-Star Game.

Cole Hamels:

Hamels might actually be having a better season than Santana with only his ERA, 3.22 to 2.96, trailing Johan’s. Hamels has a 1.02 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .209 against him. .209! That’s crazy good. Volquez, Lincecum, Haren and Zambrano are all having great season so far, but for my money, Hamels is outclassing Ryan Dempster by a bit and Aaron Cook by an even larger margin. Hamels could pitch on my all-star team any day.

Adam Dunn:

That’s right, I’m going there. I think Adam Dunn could be an All-Star. We all need to get over our fear of his terrible batting average. I am aware that he is hitting .228. I know that he has struck out 93 times already. 93 is a lot of times. I am going to propose that this is all irrelevant because he has an OBP of .386. That’s right .386. That puts him 23^rd in all of baseball and 10^th amongst outfielders. He simply does not make a lot of outs. He also hits for power; a lot of power. Adam Dunn has hit 22 homers already this season, which ties him for fourth in all of baseball. Adam Dunn, let me just say that if I was running the Jays, you would be more than welcome. Lord knows the Blue Jays could use a half decent bat or two.

And that does it for my All-Star Game write-up. I hope you guys enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. Once again, I would encourage everyone to leave a comment if you feel so inclined, or to send me an e-mail at noheartball@gmail.com. If you like what I’m doing so far, tell a friend!

That Adam Dunn section is actually a nice segue into my plan for Friday. As a Blue Jays fan, I feel obligated to share my feelings on their season so far, so Friday will be something of a mid-season report card. Let’s just say J.P Riccardi doesn’t score too high. Hope to see you then!

NB

Stats Explanation

After reading yesterday's post, one of my friends kindly pointed out that not everyone was going to know what I was talking about when I wrote OPS or WHIP. Here's a link to Baseball Prospectus' definition of all those crazy acronyms I've been using:

http://baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=1&category=true

If any of you have any other questions about what I'm writing, feel free to use the comments at the bottom of the articles, or shoot me an e-mail at noheartball@gmail.com

NB

All-Star Game: Picks and Snubs Part I

The rosters for the All-Star game were announced yesterday evening. The rosters for the game can be found here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/news/story?id=3475091
and here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/news/story?id=3475090

As usual, the fans were responsible for choosing the starters for the mid-summer classic. It only makes sense then that most of the craziness took place here. I’m not going to argue the merits of having the fans choose the representatives but instead I will take a look at which players were passed over that might have been more deserving than those that were chosen, be they as starters or reserves. I am also writing this article with the caveat that until the 32nd player is chosen to fill out the roster I can't assume any of the players listed below will make the team. There will be two categories that the players will fall into depending on how flagrant their omission was: Definitely Should Have Been There and An Argument Could Be Made.

Definitely Should Have Been There:

Jason Giambi

This selection shouldn’t be misunderstood as my condoning the usage of performance enhancing drugs or that crazy ass mustache he’s sporting. That thing terrifies me. In the end, you simply can’t deny the results that Giambi has achieved this season. He has the most home runs of any first baseman in the A.L and has the highest OPS, by a fairly large margin. Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis, the two first basemen selected, have been good, checking in with OPS of .850 and .916 as of this writing but Giambi is up at .929. And Giambi is not just doing it with power either. His .393 OBP is actually higher than Youkilis’ and quite a bit higher than Morneau’s. The only knock against Giambi is his glove but I think his numbers are just so much better that he overcomes his defensive shortcomings.

A.J Pierzynski:

It’s not that A.J is having all that great of a season, but somebody, anybody should replace Jason Varitek here. Varitek’s numbers aren’t just a little bad, they are VERY bad. You know what the weirdest thing about this is? He wasn’t even voted in by the fans. Frankly I’m flabbergasted. I know he’s the Red Sox leader blah blah blah, but the man is not even remotely helping his team this year. Pierzynski on the other hand is at least contributing a tidy, if unimpressive, .776 OPS and 7 homers. That OPS puts him more than 100 points higher than Varitek. 100 POINTS! These two aren’t even close.

Mike Lowell / Evan Longoria:

This one is almost as mind blowing as the Jason Giambi omission. Lowell and Longoria have pretty much identical splits at .297/.356/.517 and .283/.354/.535 respectively. No one is disputing A-Rod’s spot here but our friend Joe Crede is cruising along at .261/.338/.478, which is considerably worse than either Lowell or Longoria’s. Crede came out absolutely gangbusters but has cooled off noticeably since then and is showing no signs of coming out of his current funk. Meanwhile, Longoria is tearing it up as a rookie and Lowell is producing while maintaining his stellar defence. This one’s a no-brainer.

Jermaine Dye:

Jermaine Dye is absolutely tearing the league apart right now with 19 homers and a strong .919 OPS. He stacks up very favourably compared to any American League outfielder and certainly deserves to be ahead of Ichiro at the very least. I know Ichiro plays superb defence and has a cannon of an arm and that he can bunt and hit for average but his .372 slugging percentage is the opposite of good. The common defence of Ichiro is that his OPS is relatively low because he doesn’t hit for power but gets on-base a lot. Surprise! Jermaine Dye’s OBP is pretty much identical to Ichiro’s this year. Ichiro is having a down year and Dye simply deserves it more.

An Argument Could Be Made:

Brian Roberts:

First off, I should mention that Dustin Pedroia starting in place of Ian Kinsler is mindboggling. The splits aren’t even close: .312/.355/.458 and .332/.391/.545. Case closed. Additionally, Brian Roberts might have a case to be there instead of Pedroia. His .295/.373/.493 splits are just a bit better than Pedroia. They both play solid defense and steal bases well. If I had to choose, I might pick Pedroia because he has 9 HRs versus Roberts’ 6 but I can understand how one could go for Roberts instead.

John Danks:

John Danks isn’t going to the All-Star game because he doesn’t have enough wins, plain and simple. He is currently third in the A.L in ERA and his 1.17 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at. His almost 3:1 K/BB ratio is solid as well. If the White Sox had just scored a few more runs he would almost certainly have the 8 or 9 wins that seem to be necessary to make it to the show this year. The starters that made the team this year are all having great seasons but I think Danks is very comparable to Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders. I guess Danks is just going to get honourable mention this year.

John Lackey /Rich Harden:

These two have very similar pitching lines. Lackey is 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while Harden is 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Lackey’s numbers, in particular, are dominating but Harden’s no slouch himself. The main knock against these two is that they have pitched less innings due to injury. Harden has pitched 77 innings while Lackey has thrown 74.2. With so many deserving pitchers in the A.L this year, I can see why these two got the shaft. However, if they hadn’t missed time due to injury, there would be no argument as to their worthiness.

I’m sure I missed a couple of guys who deserved to be mentioned here so drop me a line in the comment section if you can think of someone who was omitted. Part II comes Wednesday!

NB

Introduction to the blog

I figured I should start this project off with a brief layout of what I'll be doing here at No Heart Ball. I owe most of my inspiration to the website http://www.firejoemorgan.com. I played baseball as a kid and grew up a fan of the Blue Jays and of baseball in general, but it was really FJM that got me into the stats side of it. Today, I think of baseball in a completely different way than I did before.

This blog will, hopefully, be a means for me to express my thoughts on the game. The tone will generally be pretty light but with a stats-oriented focus. There's nothing I hate more than analytical platitudes such as "they got by on grit" or "he has the heart of a champion". The less generic the statement the better it is, in my book.

In terms of the format, I'm hoping to write at least three posts a week. My plan was to start with a Monday-Wednesday-Friday format and see how it goes from there. In-between I will probably make smaller posts but that will be time dependent. Monday and Wednesdays will be original content and then I'm hoping that Friday will eventually become a reader e-mail day. I've set up a gmail account for the website: noheartball@gmail.com so I can be reached there with any baseball related questions you might have. I would also encourage anyone with comments to please post them. I will be very liberal with the comments and will do my best not to censor anyone but if your post is overly obscene, I reserve the right to remove it.

I think that about does it in terms of introduction. I hope you guys enjoy reading it as much as I've enjoyed writing it so far.

NB

Thus It Begins

The first real post will be here tomorrow evening. I hope you're as excited for some baseball blogging as I am.