The Impossible Search for Clutch

A lot of this piece comes from a discussion I had with a friend of mine. We'll call him D-aunt-a. There, that should sufficiently hide his identity. Lord knows that if you are featured on my wildly popular website that you'll be fighting off the paparazzi within an hour of the posting. My unidentified friend is of the opinion that there is such a thing as a "clutch" skill. I do not share this opinion. In fact, I am of the opposite opinion. I'll put it bluntly:

There is no such thing as a "clutch" player. There is such a thing as a "clutch play", an instance during the game wherein a sometimes difficult play is executed that is crucial to determining the outcome of the contest. But the ability to make clutch plays as a skill? Does not exist.

The players that are typically identified as clutch are already the best players in the game by any metric. What I am about to produce is, obviously, a somewhat flawed metric, but I think it conveys the general idea.

Link 1: An all-time ranking of NHL players in terms of points per game in the regular season
Link 2: An all-time ranking of NHL players in terms of points per game in the playoffs

N.B: I have set minimum requirements of 300 games played in the regular season and 40 in the playoffs, so as to have somewhat significant data points. The main flaw in this system is that Alex Ovechkin has not yet played 40 playoff games and Evgeni Malkin has not yet played 300 regular season games. Otherwise, both would be in the top 10 in both categories.

You will notice a lot of similarities about this list. You can throw a few individual cases at me if you want, Joe Thornton and Johan Franzen(though Franzen, at 51 points in 63 games isn't even THAT good, yet I digress) are the classic examples, but on the whole, one has to admit that the best playoff performers are the same guys that are the best regular season performers.

Which brings us to the following question: Why is the "clutch ability" a commonly-held belief? Why do we glorify some, and mock others? Why do we long to make tangible something that is clearly not?

It's the impossible quest to explain randomness. The playoffs, in any sport, are such a tiny sample size that they are inherently random. Anything can happen, anyone can win. Literally. But we need a story, we need heroes and villains. Successes and failures. John Elway was considered one of the greatest choke artists of all time until his Broncos won those last two Super Bowls. Is he now clutch? Can we retroactively remove his choker title? How about Alex Rodriguez?

To me, it ultimately boils down to this: the best predicator of a player's success in the playoffs is his body of work in the regular season. There's no voodoo. If you are a good player in the large sample of the regular season, you are more likely to succeed in the playoffs than a player who experiences less success during the regular season. There are exceptions, and weird things do happen. But the "clutch skill?" Might as well believe in UFO's.

NB