The Roy Halladay Dilemma: Part 1

I will preface this by saying it feels good to be back. I'll be updating fairly regularly for the foreseeable future. If I won't be posting for a prolonged period, I'll be sure to advertise it well ahead of time. But without further delay, I give you part one of a two part series on the intrigue surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays' decision as to whether or not they should trade their ace Roy Halladay. Enjoy.



What to do with Doc?

Much has already been written about the theoretical trading of one Roy Halladay. It is a complicated situation, and to lift from one of my favourite writers, it is also packed with peanuts. The first question that needs to be addressed is perhaps the most basic: Should the Toronto Blue Jays attempt to trade Halladay? The answer is actually not as clear as some pundits would have you believe. Most people that follow baseball would agree that Halladay is probably the best pitcher in all of baseball. Statistical evidence to back this claim up is not necessary, but can be found here if you are curious.

The way that most trades unfold in baseball involve one team trading a star, or superstar, calibre player in return for a collection of young players and/or minor league prospects. In reading the many Halladay rumours, what becomes immediately apparent is that none of the potential suitors are willing to give up an MLB-ready roster player. The Blue Jays are essentially left to pick through a package of prospects and other possibilities. Most of these are players that are projected to be good, but could just as easily never even make it to the major leagues. Right now, the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball is Stephen Strasburg, who was just drafted first overall by the Washington Nationals. Ignoring for a second the complicated logistics of the Nats' attempts to sign Strasburg (50 million dollars seems like a lot for a kid who has yet to pitch a single game in the majors, but that's neither here nor there), what is the absolute best case scenario for Strasburg's development? Isn't it a Halladay-like career? The man's put up Hall of Fame numbers for years now.

So, hypothetically speaking, Strasburg should have the best chance to just duplicate Halladay's career, let alone surpass it. Now, none of the teams in the running for Halladay are even offering the top prospects in their systems, let alone anyone of the calibre of Strasburg. Baseball prospects are notoriously difficult to evaluate with any degree of precision. If we pegged Strasburg as having a 50-50 chance of having a Halladay-like career, and, frankly, I think that's being generous, wouldn't everyone else have a much lower chance?

To sum up, the Blue Jays are proposing the following: to take a sure thing, probably the best of its kind, and trade it for a package of possibilities. Strictly from a team building perspective, this seems like a futile excercise. The odds are simply too stacked against them. Which means none of this makes sense, why would J.P Ricciardi commit career suicide?

Unless of course, Doc Halladay has told the Blue Jays' management that he won't re-sign with the team after next season (when his contract expires). This part confuses me as well. Roy Halladay is one of the most loyal athletes in all of professional sports. In fact, one could say Roy has been loyal to a fault. He signed a big extension when the team was in much worse shape than it is today. Why now would he suddenly have a change of heart about the city? If he was really thinking of bolting after the 2010 season, wouldn't we have heard something, anything, to that effect? If I were in Halladay's position, I would at least consider signing with a contending team, but it's always been his insistence that he wanted to be part of building a playoff calibre team in Toronto. I also would never believe that Halladay would force J.P's hand with a trade demand. Further, if he had requested a trade, J.P would absolutely have leaked that aspect to the media as well.



The Nuts and Bolts of the Situation:

All of this adds up to a lot of confusion on my part. I see no real reason the Blue Jays are in such a panic to trade the most valuable asset in the market. To summarize their position using a metaphor: the Blue Jays are a factory and they have the best machine in the factory business. It is a highly loyal machine that has never indicated it wanted to leave for another, better factory, instead choosing to remain with the inferior factory. Out of fear of losing this machine when its contract expires, a somewhat unfounded fear I would suggest, factory management propose to trade it for several boxes of unassembled parts. Some of these boxes of parts contain highly combustible materials. There is a very good chance that once assembled these boxes of parts will amount to nothing useful. There is just as good a chance that they will combust and never even make it into the factory, leaving a wake of fiery destruction behind them (Okay, that last part might have been a bit of hyperbole). There is also a very, very, very remote chance these newly assembled parts will contribute to the well-being of the factory. There is an almost zero percent chance these newly assembled machines will replace the best, most loyal machine they just traded for these boxes of parts. And everyone is in agreement that this is good business? This is how to keep your factory open, err, run a successful baseball team?

This all makes no sense, and yet the Blue Jays are intent on making it happen. Thus, part two of this piece will examine the return the Blue Jays can expect for Halladay, as well as further consequences of trading the good doctor. You can expect to see the post Monday evening.