No Heart Ball

Good Days...For Now

2010-01-28T19:05:00.000-08:00

Oh Happy Days

These are heady days for me as a sports fan. If you've read my handy little description on the right hand side, you'll notice that I'm an Ottawa Senators, Toronto Raptors and Toronto Blue Jays fan. Something of a weird combination, I know. I can't help it that I was born in Ottawa and have a soft spot for professional baseball and basketball. All three of the teams I support are enjoying a remarkable run. The Senators have reeled off eight wins in a row, the Raptors have won four straight and the Jays have yet to lose in 2010 (That's right folks, things are going to be so bad for the Blue Jays this year that I am distinctly worried they might find a way to lose games before the season even starts. Thankfully, they are exceeding my expectations).

Being a fan of the Senators and Raptors is actually a remarkably similar experience this year. Both are fifth seeds in the Eastern Conference. Both went through tough patches that had people, myself included, wondering if they would even make the playoffs. And now both seem to be headed in the right direction. The Raptors just knocked off the defending champion Lakers, the Sens just knocked off the defending champion Penguins. So this all sounds very nice. What's the catch in that ominous title?

Well, I don't think either of these teams can win the championship. To my mind, the Raptors have the better chance of the two, but both teams are seriously flawed. The Senators have some top end talent in Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Alexei-hey I'm suddenly motivated-Kovalev, but they lack depth and their goaltending is unproven. I think their ceiling is probably the fourth or fifth seed in the East and possibly a victory in a playoff round or two.

Meanwhile, the Raptors have a sublime offense, but still can't really play defense to save their lives. It's been a lot better during their hot play of late, but I still don't know how they can beat the Bostons and Clevelands of the world in a best of seven series. If they were to make it past the second round, it would be considered a major success. This whole year just feels kinda "eh". But it could be worse; I could be an Edmonton Oilers, New Jersey Nets, Washington Nationals fan. If this person exists, they should really just stop watching sports for a couple of years. Things can only get better. Right?

Doppelganger

I have found Phil Kessel's doppelganger: Alexandre Daigle. Now, obviously, you should take this with a grain of salt. Well, maybe more like a whole spoonful. I do think Kessel is a better player than Daigle, but you have to admit that through their first four seasons, they have eerily similar numbers:

Kessel: 264 GP, 81 Goals, 76 Assists, 157 PTS
Daigle: 263 GP, 67 Goals, 89 Assists, 156 PTS

And you're telling me that production is worth two 1st round picks, one 2nd round pick and then over 5 million a year? Look, if I was a Leafs fan, and I'm not, but living in Toronto I get NOTHING but Leafs coverage, I would be up in arms over this. The Leafs haven't been this bad in a long, long time. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Brian Burke, you've really messed this one up. Big time.

NB

Clean Check

2010-01-20T19:00:00.000-08:00

Today, Nick Kypreos said some rather interesting things about the mindset of hockey players during a lunchtime radio show. The most relevant quote:

“I’m not proud to say it, but I felt like if I could kill somebody with a legal check, I would do it,” Kypreos said, reflecting on his career during a discussion on vicious bodychecking — whether clean or illegal — on The Fan 590.

“That’s how much emotion, and outside the norm (of society that a hockey player) can get ... there is no rhyme or reason.

“I have been out there and looked at another guy’s eyes and I thought ‘I could kill you.’ ”

Now. I should start by saying I have never played a game of professional hockey. If you want to discount my opinion for that reason, you are free to go ahead and do so. But I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that if a sporting event is eliciting that sort of reaction, something is wrong. I am all for heated competition, but there should NEVER be a point where death is even contemplated.

Read Kypreos' comments again. He certainly seems to be implying that had he been given the chance to kill another player with what he defines as a "clean check", he would have done it. That is highly disturbing for a number of reasons:

1) Kypreos chose the term kill carefully, and used it deliberately. There was no hyperbole in the way he spoke. He did not use the word kill to exaggerate "hit very hard". He definitely meant "to take the the life of another human being".

2) While Nick Kypreos explained that he was not proud of having felt that way, he did attempt to justify his thoughts. In reading the rest of the article, it becomes clear that Kypreos would say he is merely a victim of his surroundings. There is "...stuff that will make you snap.." and that body checking can involve "...drawing some emotions you're not proud of". Kypreos is suggesting that placed in the same situation, everyone else would have done the same. It's just the way the game is played etc.

3) Maybe the scariest underlying part of all is the implication that it would be possible to kill someone with a "clean check", one for which, as a player, you not only could legally perform, but should feel obliged to do so. The furor surrounding the recent rash of injuries in hockey that have been caused by hits to the head has revealed a mentality in the upper echelons of the game wherein the only question of whether a player was in the right was whether he lead with his shoulder or his elbow, or did the hit take place when the injured party still had the puck?

Why is it okay to shrug off debilitating injuries in the name of...what exactly? What is so great about seeing players lying prone on the ice? But if it's a "clean check", it's okay?

"...the key to trying to deliver a punishing hit or exact a measure of revenge is to do it legally. That’s where Cormier failed miserably".

That's what Toronto Sun's Gary Loewen wrote in that same Kypreos column. And he is so very, very wrong. Patrice Cormier failed miserably as a human being not because he led with his elbow in hitting Mikael Tam, but because he left the bench with the intention of hurting Mikael Tam. The elbow is scary, but the beeline Cormier takes is even scarier.

Which takes me back to Kypreos' original statements. I think it says a lot about the state of the game that Kypreos says something like that and almost no one bats an eyelash. Google the term "Nick Kypreos kill". Almost no results relating to his insane comments. You know why? Because he said he would do it with a "clean check". One day, something horrible is going to happen because of what the rules would define as permissible. Maybe then we can finally talk about the consequences of "clean checks" like rational human beings.

The Wood was Brought

2010-01-17T08:59:00.000-08:00

Before this weekend's playoff game against the Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans' coach had the great idea of giving of all his players baseball bats and encouraging them to "bring the wood" on Sunday. Apparently one player took the message to heart:

"At a team meeting Friday night, Saints head coach Sean Payton passed out baseball bats to all his players, inscribed with the saying: "Bring the wood." Bush was so enamored with the lumber that he took it to the Superdome on Saturday and even carried it with him onto the field. At kickoff, Payton had to tell him to put it down."

Well, Reggie Bush was outstanding and the Saints absolutely demolished the Cardinals. But why "bring the wood"? Why baseball bats? Thinking of renaming the team New Orleans Mafioso? I'm really not sure I understand Sean Payton's message. And why was Reggie Bush so taken by the bat? But above all else, why did a horribly cheesy gimmick apparently galvanize a professional athlete?

So many more questions than answers.

NB

Pierre McGuire

2010-01-14T16:47:00.001-08:00

If you watch hockey in Canada, you can't help but be exposed to Pierre McGuire. Pierre is something of a polarizing figure. I don't particularly enjoy his brand of commentary, but apparently lots of people in Canada think highly of him. He certainly gets excited about the game, and I won't fault him for that. It's a lot more enjoyable viewing when it seems like the commentators genuinely want to be working the game. He also seems to do his homework before games because he often cites weird little anecdotes about the players. Again, not my cup of tea, I don't really care which Bantam team Matt Stajan played for, but it shows he's invested in his job. So he has his strengths , and even though they aren't necessarily what I look for in a good commentator, I will acknowledge he isn't all bad.

He is a lot bad, though.

During tonight's Leafs-Flyers game, broadcast on TSN, Pierre said something about Mike Richards that bordered on the insane. I'll paraphrase:

"Mike Richards is a real leader! As he skated by the Flyers bench he said: 'Come on guys, let's pick this up!' There may have been questions about Richards earlier this season, but there's no question now. Mike Richards is a leader!" (Those of you unfamiliar with Pierre McGuire may initially think I used too many exclamation marks in describing his tone. You are very wrong my friends. I considered using more. Many, many more.)

McGuire had spent a good chunk of the first period heaping praise on Richards for wholly unremarkable play, but this one line was so over the top that I just started cackling like a maniac. What does it mean that Pierre thinks this is a good example of leadership? One so good, in fact, that he felt the need to highlight it to a national audience. Does he get blown away every time someone in his life accomplishes a menial task? "You just made it down the block without tripping over your own shoelaces? That's an unbelievable level of balance! There used to be questions about your ability to walk upright, but not anymore! You can definitely put one foot in front of another! Outstanding!"(At the same time, I think Pierre would make an excellent life coach and motivator. Having someone pump you up every time you did your laundry would be pretty awesome).

This is typical of McGuire's commenting style. I often get the feeling that he comes into a game with a storyline in mind. "Player X is good at Y, so look for examples of this to reinforce pre-game comments". The issue is that this often devolves into Pierre trying to ram a square peg into a circular hole. Maybe Mike Richards is a good leader, but that instance Pierre screamed about for 30 seconds certainly did not prove it. If anything, it makes me question Richards' leadership, considering how inane of a situation was just provided as a supposedly outstanding example. That's a good reason to think he's a good leader, Pierre? Really?

The other problem this creates is that it becomes impossible for Pierre to ratchet it up a notch if there ever is a big play that warrants top of your lungs screaming. The reason you want to keep things low-key 95% of the time is so that when something incredible happens that 5% of the time, you have a different level to go to. Pierre doesn't have another level. And if he does have one that he has been saving all this time, God help us all. If he's somehow involved in the commentary for the gold medal game, and Mike Richards scores the game-winning goal in overtime, after telling the team "Come on! We can do this!", it might be just enough to get Pierre to that extra level. I think we'll have to call in a SWAT team to take him down.

I think in limited doses, Pierre could be effective. As far as the pre-game show goes, I actually think he does a pretty decent job. But when he's forced to carry the colour commentary, he tends to over-compensate, and at least two or three times a game he'll say something crazy. I'm writing this because I don't know who's providing the colour commentary for the Olympics. And I'm scared.

NB

Heartbreak City

2010-01-06T12:22:00.000-08:00

For my Canadian readers, Tuesday night was probably a roller coaster of emotions. I'm speaking, of course, about the gold medal game of the World Junior Hockey Championships. In one of the most entertaining hockey games I have seen in a long time, the United States triumphed over Canada 6-5 in overtime. The action was back and forth, played with almost reckless abandon. As Canada, or more correctly Jordan Eberle, completed a furious comeback from two goals down to tie the game at 5 with time winding down in the third period, the rink in Saskatoon was about ready to explode. The game went into overtime, and ended the way it had been played: with the U.S on an odd-man rush. Everyone I was watching the game with went silent. Less than a minute earlier, you couldn't hear yourself think. Heartbreak City indeed. (Link is to Gus Johnson's classic call of the end game from UCLA-Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament a couple years back. Wait for it. Trust me.) But why are we so drawn to the event?

There's something uniquely Canadian about our obsession with the World Junior Championships. No other country cares about the tournament in even remotely the same way. The attendance figures support this, the incredible amount of media coverage dedicated to the event support this, the completely insane viewership numbers support this, and especially the way that bar, that is normally so dead, was hopping the other night support this. Our obsession with safeguarding the game as our own plays a big part. I can't think of another major sport with a worldwide following where the dominant country is so consumed by the notion of owning the game. No one European or Latin American country claims to own soccer in the way we claim to own hockey. Even the Americans aren't nearly as protective of baseball. So when our national pride is on the line, it only makes sense that emotions would run high.

We also love the unpredictable nature of the games. Though the players chosen are the elite of their age category, they are still just kids. They make mistakes. A lot of them. One of the reasons the gold medal game was so thrilling was exactly because the players were amateurs. Even with a two goal lead and less than 5 minutes remaining in the third period, the Americans suddenly found themselves running around like chickens with their heads cut off. Where was the dominant performance of the first 30 minutes? I hate to speculate on intangibles like pressure and momentum, but it sure looked like having 15,000 fans screaming and pounding the boards had something to do with Canada getting back into it. This turn of events would never have taken place in the NHL. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes, sheer excitement can make up for a sloppily played game.

Still, the tournament has its problems. For the Canadian team, they only played two competitive games throughout. In particular, there was one game where they obliterated the poor Latvians 16-0. And that scoreline isn't the only one of its kind. Look at some of the scores from the rest of the tournament. Lopsided doesn't even begin to describe it. Obviously Canada, and probably the Russians despite their weak showing this year, will routinely beat up on at least a couple of teams every tournament. It would be a mistake to reduce the number of participating teams to 4 or 6, but the complete lack of competition until the semi-final round is certainly a negative.

The fact that the tournament is basically a Canadian event is also somewhat of a negative. It barely even registers as a sporting event outside of the True North, Strong and Free. When the tournament is held in European locations, the empty seats speak volumes to that fact. So, sure, we get really excited about it, but almost no one else does. That's something of a problem for a tournament called the World Junior Hockey Championships, and not the Canadian World Junior Invite (through it sure feels that way sometimes).

As Canadians, we will overlook all the warts. The problems that plague the tournament are merely endearing qualities to us. Canada won 16-0? Good for the boys, who cares about competitive balance? We will build up all of our heroes to a staggering degree; Jordan Eberle will never have to pay for a meal in Canadian restaurant for the rest of his life. And when we win, we'll throw parties like no other country would. But when we lose, it'll hurt worse than it would for everyone else too. Heartbreak City indeed.

Choices

2009-12-31T11:23:00.000-08:00

Selecting Team Canada is an onerous task and I don't envy Steve Yzerman and his assistants. If their team fails to deliver a gold medal on home soil, the backlash from not only the hockey community, but Canadians as a people, will be tremendous. If one of the players has a poor game, his selection to the team will be questioned. If Canada fails to medal, the Prime Minister will have to come out of hiding to declare a state of emergency. There is a lot at stake for them, let's leave it at that.

I think that, for the most part, Stevie Y. has done a good job. The three goalies were clear choices, so I won't even go over them here. The top 9 forwards were also fairly obvious, and he seems to have chosen correctly:

Nash - Crosby - Iginla
Heatley - Thornton - Marleau
Staal - Getzlaf - Perry

Those would be my combinations, though I think you could put the names into a randomizer and still come out with three dominating forward lines. The theoretical fourth line, to me, would be:

Morrow - Richards - Toews

Those seem like good choices to me. Mike Richards is debatable, and maybe the other Richards deserved it more, but I like Toews and Morrow quite a bit. It's certainly a whole lot better than the Kris Draper selection, or my personal favourite, the immortal Rob Zamuner. I bet you'd forgotten about that one. In 1998, Rob Zamuner played for the Canadian Olympic team. Let's pause to consider that one, friends.

[Pause]

Okay, pause over. Also, in that famous shootout against the Czech Republic, the Canadian shooters were Theoren Fleury, Raymond Bourque, Joe Nieuwendyk, Eric Lindros and Brendan Shanahan. While Wayne Gretzky sat on the bench, those five were charged with scoring on Dominik Hasek at the pinnacle of his powers. RAYMOND BOURQUE! Sorry, that just kind of slipped out. BOURQUE! As you can imagine, it's still a touchy issue.

Back to the subject at hand. I think the only questionable forward selection is Patrice Bergeron, and since he's probably the thirteenth forward, that shouldn't be a big deal. The person that should be up in arms over this is Marc Savard. How do you look at those numbers and choose Bergeron? Or the best part, how do Team Canada executives go to scout Bruins games, and then miss Savard? How does that happen? Did he somehow offend Yzerman personally? I am flabbergasted.

The choices on defense are a little stranger:

Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer, Drew Doughty, Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, Shea Weber and Dan Boyle.

I think that Duncan Keith, Dan Boyle, Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger are locks. I am not a big Pronger fan, but he's played well so far this year. He's +11 on a Philadelphia team that's only scored three more goals than it's given up. Weber is certainly a defensible choice, but the Seabrook and Doughty choices are a little weird. The conventional choice would have been Jay Bouwmeester. He's soaking up almost 27 minutes per game, mostly against the opponent's top line, and he's a solid + 9.

However, I think the real missed opportunity was Mike Green. Okay, I know he is not super defensively. Well, maybe I know he's mediocre.... okay, okay, he's not good, alright? Everyone knows that. He's also a point a game player with an outrageous level of skill. No one makes a better breakout pass in the NHL. No defenseman carries the puck better than him. And no one, no one, runs a power play better than him. How does Brent Seabrook and his magical .37 Career Points/Game average get the nod over Mike Green? Yes, Rick Nash dangled him that one time. Yes, he had a bad run in the playoffs last year. But if Canada's power play goes bad, Green will be sorely missed.

On the whole, I do respect the fact that they didn't go for old veterans that had more experience than some of the youngsters that were chosen. Any of the forwards is markedly better than say Ryan Smyth or Shane Doan. And resisting the temptation to create a true checking line is a stroke of genius in my mind. Even the hypothetical fourth line will be able to generate offensive chances. So, on the whole, kudos Steve Yzerman. You did a very credible job. Now, if this teams mucks it up, none of it will matter, you'll still get kicked out of Canada.

NB

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

2009-12-25T23:01:00.001-08:00

I am taking a brief Christmas hiatus. I'll be back early in the New Year. Safe and happy holidays to all!

NB

The Impossible Search for Clutch

2009-12-20T14:09:00.000-08:00

A lot of this piece comes from a discussion I had with a friend of mine. We'll call him D-aunt-a. There, that should sufficiently hide his identity. Lord knows that if you are featured on my wildly popular website that you'll be fighting off the paparazzi within an hour of the posting. My unidentified friend is of the opinion that there is such a thing as a "clutch" skill. I do not share this opinion. In fact, I am of the opposite opinion. I'll put it bluntly:

There is no such thing as a "clutch" player. There is such a thing as a "clutch play", an instance during the game wherein a sometimes difficult play is executed that is crucial to determining the outcome of the contest. But the ability to make clutch plays as a skill? Does not exist.

The players that are typically identified as clutch are already the best players in the game by any metric. What I am about to produce is, obviously, a somewhat flawed metric, but I think it conveys the general idea.

Link 1: An all-time ranking of NHL players in terms of points per game in the regular season
Link 2: An all-time ranking of NHL players in terms of points per game in the playoffs

N.B: I have set minimum requirements of 300 games played in the regular season and 40 in the playoffs, so as to have somewhat significant data points. The main flaw in this system is that Alex Ovechkin has not yet played 40 playoff games and Evgeni Malkin has not yet played 300 regular season games. Otherwise, both would be in the top 10 in both categories.

You will notice a lot of similarities about this list. You can throw a few individual cases at me if you want, Joe Thornton and Johan Franzen(though Franzen, at 51 points in 63 games isn't even THAT good, yet I digress) are the classic examples, but on the whole, one has to admit that the best playoff performers are the same guys that are the best regular season performers.

Which brings us to the following question: Why is the "clutch ability" a commonly-held belief? Why do we glorify some, and mock others? Why do we long to make tangible something that is clearly not?

It's the impossible quest to explain randomness. The playoffs, in any sport, are such a tiny sample size that they are inherently random. Anything can happen, anyone can win. Literally. But we need a story, we need heroes and villains. Successes and failures. John Elway was considered one of the greatest choke artists of all time until his Broncos won those last two Super Bowls. Is he now clutch? Can we retroactively remove his choker title? How about Alex Rodriguez?

To me, it ultimately boils down to this: the best predicator of a player's success in the playoffs is his body of work in the regular season. There's no voodoo. If you are a good player in the large sample of the regular season, you are more likely to succeed in the playoffs than a player who experiences less success during the regular season. There are exceptions, and weird things do happen. But the "clutch skill?" Might as well believe in UFO's.

NB

Tiger Woods Connects All The Dots

2009-12-17T17:21:00.000-08:00

I haven't written anything about the Tiger Woods scandal so far, and up until I read this piece, I was not intending to. The whole story is such a soap opera, and frankly, I don't care that much. Not to say I condone cheating on your wife, but so many people have already written about it, some better than others, that I don't feel like I need to get up on my high horse and reprimand Tiger. But an article about bookies taking bets on the size of Woods' divorce settlement? Now that was just too much for me. The article in question, and the rest of the media frenzy surrounding it, should tell us a number of things about ol' Tiger.

1) Tiger Woods is the most popular, and important, athlete in the world.

Lots, and I mean lots, of athletes are unfaithful. When their infidelities are made public, some get more coverage than others. Kobe Bryant's whole sordid affair in Colorado was very big news, but not nearly the monstrosity that this story has become. It's literally impossible to visit any news website and not have a Tiger-related story somewhere on the front page. Admittedly, the shock of the whole situation had something to do with it, I don't think there were too many people that saw this coming, but the fact that it happened to TIGER WOODS is the biggest story.

2) Tiger Woods is a unifying force.

One of the reasons that the article made me laugh is because of the section wherein they explain gambling odds. Here's the excerpt:

At odds of 25-1, people who bet $1 and win will get $25 plus the $1 stake back. At 6-4 odds, a $4 bet will get $10 in return.

It is innocuous and, if you are familiar with gambling odds, it seems like a throwaway. You probably just glossed over it. Now, what it actually tells you is that TSN thinks that it needs to explain how gambling odds work to its target audience for the article. They don't think gamblers are going to be particularly interested in the article. No, this is for a much broader audience. If Auntie Lynn who is a golf fan, but who watches only the majors, and only when Tiger's in the hunt, is going to read one column this year on TSN.ca, it'll probably be about Tiger. So, we need to explain this sort of thing to Auntie Lynn. If you have a relative like this, you can think of this as a family bonding opportunity. Tiger Woods: bringing people together through his shame.

3) Bookies will take bets on ANYTHING.

I mean look at some of those possible bets. Note that his wife hasn't even filed for divorce yet. Also, people like betting on pretty well anything. I think it's fascinating. I could debate the odds on the divorce settlement for at least 20 minutes with someone, not necessarily because I think the divorce itself is interesting, but because making up the odds would be highly entertaining. I don't think I'm alone in that.

4) There's been a certain gleeful "We got you! You tried to shut us out forever and we got you!" attitude to the media's coverage.

For years, Tiger Woods did his darndest to keep everyone out. And I mean everyone. His yacht is named Privacy. Privacy! So when he finally slipped up, it was a feeding frenzy.

Now I've never been chased by the paparazzi. I've never had mics shoved in my face from weird angles. I've never been expected to be a role model to millions of people. Maybe Tiger Woods' approach makes the most sense. But, I have to believe that you can't pretend not to be human forever. You can't act like you don't have real emotions or that you're not a real person. Because eventually, you are going to be exposed as being a real human being. And when that happens, it's gonna hurt worse than anything you were hiding from in the first place. I can't say it like Jay Smooth does, so I'll close this piece by throwing it over to him. Give it a watch, and let's get some more comments going!

NB

Telling Stories

2009-12-14T15:22:00.000-08:00

Today, reports have surfaced that Roy Halladay has been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies. The rumours have not yet been confirmed, but that seems like a mere formality. In the world of sports reporting, where there's smoke, there's almost always fire. It's awfully hard to keep something of this magnitude under wraps forever.

I was well aware that this moment was coming, I even wrote about it earlier this summer. Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays were going in vastly different directions (Roy was good and the Jays were awful). My plan was to write a snarky, sarcastic piece about the folly of trading arguably the best pitcher in baseball. I might still write that piece. But, I also have to write this one.

I wouldn't consider myself a die-hard Blue Jays fan; I watch a lot of the games, but I've only been to a handful in my life. I've only ever seen Halladay pitch twice in my life. And yet, I feel like I know him. He was undyingly loyal to the Jays. He always, always, performed like a pro. Even as the franchise that employed him was self-combusting all around him, he went out and did his job. At the end of every spectacular outing, as the crowd rose to their feet to applaud the pitching genius, he would tip his hat in a way that seemed so sincere. It didn't hurt that he was one of the very best pitchers of his generation.

For the most part, I am a rational man. I would consider myself more objective than most when it comes to sports analysis. I don't "hate" my favourite teams' rivals. I don't lose sleep based on the outcome of a game. I follow attentively, but somewhat dispassionately. Or so I thought.

When I first read that Roy Halladay had been traded, I didn't have the reaction that I expected. I couldn't even muster a word of sarcasm. I couldn't write something funny here, it wouldn't be sincere. I don't know him, I never will know him, but it still feels like someone in my life is leaving. I'm left to marvel at the attachment I formed with a man that I watched go out and simply do his job once every five days for seven months out of the year. How did I ever get this attached to him? Was his loyalty contrived? Did he go about his work so professionally because he believed in honouring his contract, or because he truly did love the game and the fans?

In watching the sporting spectacle unfold, as fans, we can only ever guess at the motives of the players before us. As the Tiger Woods fiasco demonstrates, an image can be manufactured. As long as we're held at arm's length, we can never truly know the person in question. We are left to guess at who they really are.

Why do I think I know Halladay well enough to be saddened by his trade? I think it has something to do with telling stories. All of our lives are filled with stories. Some stories are private, and some we share with others. As you become more comfortable with someone, you share more of your stories with them. And, in turn, you hear more of their stories. Every five days, for seven months a year, Doc Halladay told stories for us to share in. It always felt like he wanted the fans to share in his stories. It never hurt that he was the best story teller around. And he was our story-teller. Being a fan of a baseball team not named New York, Boston, L.A or Philadelphia is a challenging proposition. Eventually, the talent is going to leave your team for greener pasture. They will be too expensive to keep around, and will probably be traded before they are lost for nothing in free agency. Halladay stuck with the Blue Jays through thick and thin. When J.P Riccardi made his plan to trade Halladay public, Roy remained professional throughout. A lot of people would have taken shots at management for the p.r nightmare that ol' J.P created, but not Roy. Maybe he has very good advisers, or agents, or lawyers, that help him keep his agent so clean, but I don't think so. I am just guessing, but it would take a lot to change my mind about Halladay. That's the story I created for him. Now that he's gone, I'll have to write a new one, about some new hero. I doubt it'll be as good because I won't have as good a co-author.

The Best of the NHL Decade in Review: Part 1

2009-12-11T18:54:00.000-08:00

Sports Illustrated started a feature this week whereby they collected the best and the worst of the past decade for every sport. Well, I thought it was going to be every sport at least. They started off with football and baseball, which makes sense, they are the two most popular, and then went straight to pop culture....which isn't even a sport. So they skipped over basketball and hockey, which means that I get to completely rip-off the idea for the NHL. That's how copyright works right?

I'll clarify that I mean the decade as being from the 1999-2000 season through the 2008-2009 season. This, unfortunately for them, disqualifies players like Mario Lemieux and Peter Forsberg that were clearly some of the best players of their generation. Mario only played 170 games and Forsberg only played 440. Sorry guys, no one is disputing your place in the hockey pantheon, but in this discussion, you have to take a back seat. And so, without further delay, I give you my Best of the NHL Decade in Review:

Player of the Decade:Nicklas Lidstrom.
Runners-up: Martin Brodeur, Jaromir Jagr

This proved to be a most difficult choice indeed. For me, it really came down to three players: Jaromir Jagr, Martin Brodeur and Nicklas Lidstrom. Jagr is unquestionably the best forward of the decade, racking up 864 points in 692 games. Even more impressive is to consider how much damage he did before the lockout, when you were basically allowed to cut an opponent's arms off without being penalized. His 1999-00 and 2000-01 seasons are just outrageous. Some called him a floater later in his career, but you just cannot argue with the numbers. Jaromir Jagr flat out dominated.

Brodeur's case will always be hampered by the fact that some of those Devils teams he played on were impenetrable black holes on defense. Like it or not, hockey is a team game and Brodeur benefited from having very good teammates. Does this diminish everything he's accomplished? Not at all. He still had to play very well to achieve what he did, I just think you could have probably swapped him with Luongo or Roy, or maybe even an Ed Belfour-type goalie and gotten almost identical results. So, sorry Marty, but this is my list and your all-time wins record just don't cut it here.

Nicklas Lidstrom wins my fantastic fictional prize because he was unquestionably the best defenseman of the decade. Consistently excellent, he only had one down year in 2003-2004 when he mysteriously only scored 38 points, but was otherwise beyond comparison. He quarterbacked the powerplay AND the penalty kill on some of the best teams of the decade. He won the Norris 6 (!!!!) times and the Conn Smythe once. He's also generally regarded as one of the classiest players in the game. It was close, but it's got to be Lidstrom.

Best Franchise of the Decade: Detroit Red Wings
Runner-up: New Jersey Devils

This, again, was a very hard choice, though only between two real contenders. Both the New Jersey Devils and the Detroit Red Wings can make very strong cases for having been the franchises of the decade. Now, I think it's no coincidence that the two finalists were, and still are, lead by two of the finalists for the prestigious No Heart Ball Player of the Decade Award.

Really, there's no other franchise that can match the consistently excellent teams that these two put on the ice for all of those years. Both won two Stanley Cups and lost once in the finals. Both had highly publicized flame outs in the first round of the playoffs. But, to me, one of the true marks of their continued excellence is their outstanding regular season records: both teams made the playoffs every year in the decade. In fact, neither missed the playoffs during the span.

In the end, I decided to go with the Wings because they had more truly outstanding seasons. While New Jersey averaged an impressive 103 points per season during their run, the Red Wings rang up 113. Let's go over that number slowly. Over the entire 2000's, the Detroit Red Wings averaged 113 points a season. They averaged 50 wins, 19 losses and 13 ties. That, my friends, hurts my head to think about.

Best Canadian Franchise of the Decade: Ottawa Senators
Runners-up: Everyone else is remarkably similar

This being a (mostly) Canadian sports site, with a (mostly) Canadian audience, I figured this should be addressed. Now, as a Sens fan, I suspect I will catch some grief over this. Believe me, I wouldn't make this argument if it wasn't completely air-tight. Obviously everyone, and twice from those pesky Leafs fans, would point to Ottawa's "disappointing" playoffs record. Well, friends, Ottawa actually has the best playoff record of the lot. Shocking, I know. Let's break it down:

Ottawa: 8 playoff appearances, 7 series won, 8 series lost, 1 Finals appearance, 1 Conference Finals appearance
Calgary Flames: 5 playoff appearances, 3 series won, 5 series lost, 1 Finals appearance
Edmonton Oilers: 5 playoff appearances, 3 series won, 5 series lost, 1 Finals appearance (Weird coincidence!)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 5 playoff appearances, 5 series won, 5 series lost, 1 Conferences Finals appearance
Montreal Canadiens: 5 playoff appearances, 3 series won, 5 series lost
Vancouver Canucks: 6 playoff appearances, 3 series won, 6 series lost

The regular season number speak for themselves, so I won't even bother with those. If those Sens are playoff chokers, then we have a goddamn epidemic of choking amongst our Canadian hockey teams.

The second part of this piece, featuring my selections for the All-Decade team, will be posted sometime in the next couple of days. I am choosing four forward lines, three defense pairings and two goalies. Post your teams in the comments section and we'll do a comparison when mine goes up.

NB

New Post!

2009-12-11T10:41:00.001-08:00

TONIGHT!!!!!

Woo.

The Code...

2009-12-06T17:19:00.000-08:00

...Is the Worst Part About Hockey

There's a lot about hockey that I love, but a lot of those good things are often overshadowed by the actions of a stupid few. Hockey is a sport that requires a great deal of toughness to play at any level of competitiveness. Racing back to retrieve a dump-in at full speed, all while the opposition's forechecker breathes down your neck, just waiting to crush you into the boards, is not for the faint of heart. The physicality often crosses the line into violence. Every season, there are innumerable incidents in which "dirty" play causes injury, precisely because it's so hard to tread that line without crossing it. Your clean, open ice, hit to the chest was probably just a step, and a couple of inches, away from being an elbow to the head that causes a major injury. Accidental injury is a part of the game. It's possible to commit an infraction without ever intending to. Not every high stick that cuts a player's face open was deliberate, and those types of plays are unavoidable. The real issue stems from what most people would term "cheap shots".

To hear some people tell it, the best way to steer the game away from the cheap shots is to allow the players to police themselves. In this world, all players would abide by The Code. The Code, for those of you that aren't familiar with the term, is a completely ambiguous definition for how to "play the game the right way". I hate The Code. I defy anyone to clearly articulate to me what, exactly, The Code entails, and who, exactly, abides by it. Most of the time, it's about how a fight between two aggrieved parties will prevent any further escalation. Let boys be boys. Except that it doesn't work. And nobody abides by it.

Last night, Dan Carcillo sucker punched Matt Bradley after cross-checking him twice. It was a completely gutless act. Most sensible human beings watch that clip and see Matt Bradley is essentially the victim of assault. After hitting Carcillo, cleanly, both Bradley and Carcillo fall to the ice. Carcillo gets up first and cross-checks Bradley in the back. As Bradley gets up to skate away, Carcillo cross-checks him again. Bradley turns to face him, Carcillo grabs Bradley by the jersey with one hand and sucker punches him with the other. The whole thing happens in about 10 seconds flat. Bradley has zero chance to defend himself. He's starting to take his gloves off to fight, but Carcillo has already cold-cocked him by the time he gets one glove off. For his transgressions, Carcillo received 19 minutes in penalty. The Capitals scored 3 goals on the ensuing power play and won the game going away. Today, the NHL suspended Carcillo for 4 games. And yet, there are people that are defending him.

If you are a masochist, you can try to read through the comments on the video link. There are a surprisingly large number of people that defend Carcillo's actions. Any hockey related website that allows comments will feature a fair share of the same sort of message. The claim goes that Bradley should have been ready to fight, that Carcillo was just defending himself. Carcillo is tough, and Bradley, as YouTube commenter GNR27J puts it "Bradley you are a pussy and had it coming to you". Nice. Somehow, the victim is the problem because he didn't adequately defend himself.

Why is Bradley at fault? Because of The Code. He supposedly should have been ready to defend himself as soon as Carcillo dropped the gloves. Nevermind that Carcillo doesn't actually drop them, he throws them, and that there was no way that Bradley had any way of predicting that Carcillo would lose his marbles that quickly. I could never say it as well as Cedric Daniels does, so I'll let him say it for me.

The problem runs deeper. This whole thing started because Bradley hit Carcillo along the boards. Watch the whole replay: Bradley delivers a clean, hard check and Carcillo loses his mind. He cross-checks him, when Bradley tries to skate away, cross-checks him again, and, finally, just grabs him and sucker punches him. That's how you're supposed to react to a clean hit? This makes Carcillo tough? That is the opposite of tough. If Carcillo was really tough, he'd have shaken it off as part of the game. He took the hit to make the play. That's what someone with real guts would have done.

The players that commit the worst, dirtiest infractions are the same players that are supposedly enforcing the code. What do Marty McSorley and Chris Simon have in common? They're players whose sole role is to fight. If you asked the people that love The Code, those players should be keeping the cheap shots out of the game. And yet, for some strange reason, it's those very players that commit some of the worst acts.

I love hockey, and I'll probably never stop loving it, but things like this make me wonder why we cater so much to the vocal minority. Just because they scream the loudest doesn't mean they're right.

New and Exciting Posts...

2009-12-06T05:12:00.001-08:00

...Coming Tonight!

Sorry all for the lack of updates this week, it's been kinda hectic in my part of the world. I will be back with more writing tonight.

Matt Burt, we hardly knew ye...

2009-11-30T20:20:00.000-08:00

...Yet Your Opinions About Brian Burke Are Highly Predictable.

I'm not vain enough to think that this article was meant as a rebuttal to my earlier piece about Brian Burke, Ron Wilson and their mis-handling of the Toronto Maple Leafs. I do think it's a very weird article. It's like a bizzaro version of what I wrote, where the author has been sipping on a little too much of the MLSE Kool-Aid. There are some particularly jarring parts that I'm going to break down FJM style because it's too surreal for me to ignore.

After a few introductory paragraphs, Burt unearths Brian Burke's classic quote:

"We require, as a team, proper levels of pugnacity, testosterone, truculence and belligerence," Burke famously said. "That's how our teams play."

When you read this, it's like Burke grabbed a thesaurus before the interview and looked to see how many variations of grit or toughness he could come up with. I wonder what would happen if the team only had the proper amounts of testosterone and truculence but not belligerence. Would only 4 out of the 5 players on the ice finish their checks? Would Thomas Kaberle suddenly become scared to pass the puck as Burke has suggested in the past? Mysteries abound when you play hockey chemistry!

With a full year in the Big Smoke under his belt, Burke has received his share of criticism for producing a team that's tough as nails, but not all that effective at putting the puck in the net.

No, Matt, you see the problem is that Burke hasn't received enough criticism for his failures so far. The Toronto media is inundated with stories like this one; fawning over his successes and glossing over his failures. And what does it mean to be tough as nails? Is this even true of Toronto? Other teams are so scared of the Leafs that they're only outscoring them by 25 (!) goals this year. Imagine if they were only kind of tough.

"My first thought was that there was too much emphasis on the toughness angle," says NHL on TSN analyst Ray Ferraro. "I have always felt that skill is harder to accumulate than size and grit. That would have been my priority, in particular since they do not have very much top-end skill."

While some onlookers argue the team is underachieving, others say they're actually achieving just fine, thank you.

"The Leafs' biggest problem is that they simply are not good enough," explained Ferraro. "I've played on bad teams - sometimes their best isn't enough. This is a time for teaching and repetition of structure - pointing out flaws all the time doesn't make a player better - (head coach Ron Wilson) has to help the current players be as good as they can be until they acquire a better group."

I never imagined that Ray Ferraro would be the voice of reason in all this, but thank you, thank you, thank you. Why isn't this obvious to everyone else whose job it is to notice these things? Thank you Ray, you are a hero in my books. You know Matt, maybe this is going to work out okay after all. Maybe you've come to your senses and this column is going somewhere and I...

Depth issues and other problems aside, there is a different angle to be considered, and that's the one that casts Burke's vision in a positive light, one that gives him the benefit of the doubt on a long-term timeline. After all, he didn't exactly inherit a fantastic hockey team, and one season does not a legacy make.

Oh no. Matt, no. Why did you go and do that? We all knew he inherited a bad team. But since he's inherited them, THEY'VE GOTTEN WORSE. And...

"It's far too early," says McGuire. "First of all, this is a major rebuild. The Maple Leafs just had no organizational depth at all. Burke has tried to be proactive rather than reactive. He's tried to drive the market and and I think he's done some very good things."

Now imagine this scenario: five years from now, hockey fans in Toronto are marveling at the completion of Burke's long-term vision as the team hoists the Cup for the first time since 1967.

Okay, now we've actually entered the realm of the fantastic. I can practically see your Leafs jersey there Matt.

In the Internet age, it's easy for any blogger to throw out vicious barbs (from the office, the classroom or even their parent's basements!) and have it count for something, but the reality is that judgements made this early in Burke's reign are simply unfair.

Why did you have to go and make this personal Matt? I'll have you know I moved out of my parents' basement 4 years ago now and that I very rarely ask them for money! At least Ray Ferraro is still on my side, right?

"I would have hired Brian if it was my team, and I still would," he [Ferraro] said of the first American-born GM in Maple Leafs history. "It isn't unfair to evaluate, but it's way too early to make any judgement."

Hurrm. I'm not exactly sure what Ray Ferraro means by that, but okay! I'll keep on evaluating without passing judgement!

There's a whole lot more of this stuff that I'll sludge through later. But really, it's just the same stuff from the Toronto media. I've been cynical enough for one evening.

Canada is Still the World's Premiere Hockey Nation...

2009-11-28T17:42:00.000-08:00

...But We Aren't Producing the Most Skilled Players

Since this will probably prove to be something of a touchy subject, I'll start by making a couple of stipulations:

1. Canada is still the strongest hockey country in the world.

2. Team Canada will enter Vancouver as the odds-on favourite to win the tournament.

3. My argument is not that Canadians are not the best all-around players, but rather that they are not the most individually skilled.

3. Canadians love hockey

4. I love hockey

5. I love Canada

Those last two points are especially important. Suggesting that Canadian hockey players are anything less than perfection is heresy and I might be putting myself at risk for some sort of group violence for criticizing the way Canadian players are taught to play the game (well, not really... i mean probably...hopefully.... err...on second thought I just won't leave the house for a couple of days).

I'll be blunt: The most individually skilled players in the game are not Canadian. For a country that produces a remarkably large percentage of the players in the NHL, dominates international competition, and in general is completely hockey-crazed, this is somewhat surprising. When I think of flashes of genius, of awe inspiring displays of skill, I think of Alex Ovechkin, I think of Evgeni Malkin, I think of Ilya Kovalchuk, I think of Marian Gaborik. I do think there are lots of really, really good Canadian players. Sidney Crosby, Jarome Iginla, Rick Nash all are outstanding talents. But, I don't think those guys have the same puck skills the first group does. Now, this is obviously highly subjective. You could put together a really superb Crosby-Iginla-Nash highlight reel and I would be forced to bow to their mastery of the game of hockey. I mean, Rick Nash did score this goal (By the way, I love the commentary in the clip. The colour guy says "My goodness gracious! Holey Moley!"). Nonetheless, they are not the most individually skilled players in the game.

I think there's a good reason for this. From a young age, canadian players are taught to take the safe play. "Ring it around the boards" or "Dump and chase to get the forecheck going" are two of the mantras of pretty well any hockey coach in Canada. Players are rewarded for what I would term boring play. How often will a coach congratulate a player for beating a defender one on one to create a great scoring chance? Instead, if there is a turnover, the player is likely to be reprimanded and benched. By putting team success ahead of the development of individual skills, hockey in Canada is producing a very specific type of player. How are young Canadian players ever going to develop the puck skills, let alone the confidence, to dangle a defender when they are constantly told not to take the risky play?

Watch Malkin, Kovalchuk or Ovechkin play. They attack every defender at full speed. When they get the puck, they want to score and if that involves beating the opposing team's players one on one, so be it. The fact that they do so with such frequency is no fluke. From a young age, they must have been allowed to develop puck skills and offensive skills. They were allowed to attack, attack, attack, and sometimes, they made mistakes. The type of skill set they posses doesn't just materialize.

I think the best example of this conservative attitude in Canadian hockey is reflected in the current debate over the lineup for Team Canada in Vancouver. To me, the most shocking aspect of the whole thing is how Mike Green and Marc Savard aren't either locks, or at least fairly sure things to make the team. Instead we talk about players like Shane Doan (?!) and Robyn Regehr (?!?!?!?) as vying for the last couple of spots. Now, both are perfectly good NHL players and play critical roles in their respective teams' success. But Green and Savard are exceptional talents. Watch how their offensive skills open up scoring opportunities for their teammates. Green has 25 points in 24 games, which is tied for the league lead for points by a defenseman. He scored 31 goals last year. And for all you people that love plus/minus, he's a tidy plus 5 on the year so far. Watch him make a breakout pass. Be awed by his skating ability. How is this guy not a lock for Team Canada? The answer is in our country's obsession with playing it safe and ringing it off the boards. Make the unspectacular play, force the other teams to make mistakes and hope to capitalize. Savard is viewed in generally the same light. How is someone like Jordan Staal a better fit? Does no one think to see that Savard is one of the very best distributors in the NHL?

It's not impossible for the super elite, individually skilled players to emerge from the Canadian hockey system. It's just that we make it ridiculously hard to do so. Until we change our attitudes about "dumping and chasing" and "playing it safe", it's not likely to be any different for the years to come. Canada will continue to be the powerhouse in hockey, with depth that is envied by all. Yet, we will lack that singular offensive talent, that player that when he gets the puck, as he winds up behind his net before charging up ice, forces everyone to rise from their seats with bated breath. We'll continue to win or lose as a cohesive unit with no one outstanding player showing off breath-taking skills. We'll win gritty. How wonderfully Canadian.

NB

Drafted Could Have Been Really Interesting...

2009-11-25T21:17:00.001-08:00

...But Instead The Score Tried to Make a Quick Buck and it's Terrible

I should start by stating that I had intended to apply to be on the show. The premise sounded fascinating: The Score television network would scour the country looking for Canada's next sportscaster. One of the main reasons that I watch TSN instead of Rogers Sportsnet or The Score is the appeal of their on-air talent. I find Jay Onrait and Dan O'Toole pretty hilarious. I think that Darren Dutchyshen is practically a Canadian institution. Ask any of your friends that follows sports in this country and they'll have an opinion about the TV personalities on the three major networks. Hosting Sportscentre would be a dream come true for a lot of fans. Thousands of people would wait anxiously to showcase their talents. Think of it as American Idol, or So You Think You Can Dance, except for sports geeks doing their best play by play, and...wait, why did I think this would be a great idea again?

But, as it turns out, the problem wasn't with the premise of the program, but rather the execution. I should have known that there would be issues when The Score promoted the idea as "Gillette Drafted" instead of just plain "Drafted". In an era in which broadcasting anything, anything at all, to a national audience involves mass commercialization, the Gillette part of the name simply slipped my attention. I'm far too numb to this sort of thing to pick up on the subtleties of corporate sponsorships. What I didn't imagine was the lengths that The Score, and Gillette by proxy, would go to in order to promote the sponsor's product.

Every segment of the show was as much about promoting Gillette as it was about choosing the winner of the competition. I first became worried when during the initial interview phase, the candidates were asked about personal grooming and Gillette, etc. It got progressively worse, until the breaking point came when the candidates were set to interview Bas Rutten. Bas is a bad-ass dude, and the idea of just dropping the finalists in there to do an intervew with him without any preparation at all sounded very interesting. Unfortunately, before the interview itself, we were subjected to watching the finalists "prepare" for the interview by using Gillete products. Watch the first couple of minutes of Episode 40: Andy's Bad Hair Day. We have to watch him shave? Really? By the time the interview itself rolled around, I was so turned off by the shaving scene that I had lost all interest in the competition. The Score had effectively killed their own punchline with a terrible lead-up.

It got worse. Scroll up to the Journey and Transformation Episodes and watch how the makeup artist shamelessly shills the Gillette products at the end of the episode. I'm not naive about this sort of things. As I said at the start, broadcasting to a large audience requires sponsorship. But this was a whole new level. How does The Score expect to have ANY credibility with their viewers after this disaster? The home of the hardcore? You can honestly say that to me with a straight face?

If my criticism seems overly harsh, know that I would never write something this biting if the product was just crappy. It's not that it's bad, because then I would have just ignored it like so many other terrible programs. It's that The Score wasted a really great opportunity by chasing a few extra dollars. The poor soul that had the great idea in the first place must cry a little every time his dream is sold for a few more dollars every episode. How hard would it have been to call it Gillette Drafted and just thank the sponsors once or twice a show? Or run only Gillette ads during commercial breaks?

The great irony of all my rage is that I just bought a bottle of Gillette shampoo yesterday. In the deep recesses of Gillette's marketing department, someone is laughing maniacally.

NB

BREAKING NEWS!

2009-11-21T19:10:00.000-08:00

...Actually no, not really at all.

However, the timing of this press release does seems highly suspicious to me. I think everyone was well aware of the fact that Roy Halladay wasn't re-signing with the Toronto Blue Jays after his contract expires next summer. Is this meant as one last olive branch to the fans? A way of saying: "Hey, we're about to trade our best player for pennies on the dollar, but look! We tried to re-sign him, we really did! It's just that our 'timelines for winning don't mesh'", perhaps?

This whole thing makes Paul Beeston seem so naive, when he's clearly not. Anyone with any remote interest in the Jays is aware Halladay is going to be traded. Beeston knows this is public knowledge. Just a guess, but I'd wager we're going to see the Halladay derby heat up in the next week or so.

Stay tuned.

Brian Burke and Ron Wilson are Bulletproof

2009-11-20T18:05:00.000-08:00

...Or Maybe They Have a Thick Coat of Teflon?

These two must have incriminating pictures of every member of the Toronto media. The normally fickle hockey press corps, with the loudest voices emanating primarily from the panelists on TSN and Rogers Sportsnet, is somehow giving Brian Burke and Ron Wilson a relatively free pass for the absolute quagmire that is the Toronto Maple Leafs hockey team. Let's recap quickly for those that haven't been following:

1. Ron Wilson joins the Maple Leafs prior to the 2008-2009 season. Wilson is largely regarded as a major upgrade from his predecessor, Paul Maurice (I don't necessarily agree with this assertion, but this is the popularly held belief).

2. After a lot of posturing by both sides, the Maple Leafs and Brian Burke unite in holy matrimony on November 29th, 2008. Every single member of the media approves of the move. Talk of Brian Burke's history as a "winner" is bandied about freely. Glory days are sure to follow

3. Burke, on multiple occasions, goes on the record as saying no one on the Leafs current roster is safe, except maybe Luke Schenn. He promises the team will be harder to play against. He over-uses the word truculent to the point that all meaning is lost.

4. The Leafs finish a surprisingly respectable 34-35-13 for 81 points. At the outset of the 2008-2009 season, it was generally agreed that the Leafs would be one of the worst teams in the NHL. Ron Wilson is touted in some corners as a candidate for Coach of the Year.

5. In the weeks leading up to the NHL Draft, Burke makes it abundantly clear that he wants to move up to take Tavares. His refusal to include Luke Schenn in any trade eventually forces the Leafs to select from their original position, 7th. They select Nazim Kadry.

6. Burke makes a couple of free agent signings outside of the NHL. Christian Hanson, Tyler Bozak and Jonas Gustavsson join the team. Gustavsson is the only one of the three to make the team out of training camp.

7. Burke signs two well known NHL defensemen: Mike Komisarek and François Beauchemin. Both are regarded as being upgrades for the team's swiss cheese defense.

8. The most hotly debated of Burke's moves: the Phil Kessel trade. Burke trades the Leafs' first and second round picks in the 2010 draft, as well as the Leafs' first round pick in the 2011 draft to acquire the sniper. Kessel signs a 5 year, 27 million dollar contract.

That's a quick-hit synopsis of the Leafs under Burke and Wilson. Mix it all together and you have the Toronto Maple Leafs at 3-11-6 and in a state of complete disarray. Recently, Dave Feschuk of the Toronto Star wrote a column in which he interviewed sports prognosticator Ken Roberts. Mr. Roberts developed a complex simulation system that he uses to forecast the NHL season. In Mr. Roberts' simulations, the Leafs made the playoffs 1.7% of the time. Let's think about that number: 1.7%. Barely a quarter of the season has been played, and the Leafs are basically statistically eliminated.

John Ferguson Junior Part II?

Not to bring up the ghosts of Leafs GMs past, but if John Ferguson had a start to the season this bad, he would have been drawn and quartered by now. What exactly have Burke and Wilson done to give themselves so much credibility?

Wilson's supposed strength, bringing defensive accountability to his team, has turned out to be the team's biggest weakness. In 2008-2009, the Leafs gave up 293 goals, which ranked dead last in the NHL. This year, they have given up 77 goals, which currently ranks second last (Only Carolina has given up more, 80, and Toronto's got a whole game in hand to make up that difference). If they continue at their stunningly inept pace, the Leafs would give up a whopping 316 goals. That's amazingly terrible.

Wilson promised that players would be held accountable. Maybe the players are being held accountable for their play, but it doesn't seem to be doing them much good. I hate to speculate on locker room dynamics, and from what I've seen the Leafs do seem to play hard, but they are so far from cohesive it's scary.

Burke's record of player acquisition reads even worse. His three non-NHL signings are at best works in progress. Gustavsson has a 3.23 GAA and a save percentage of .901. It's early, but there's not a whole lot to go on there. Bozak and Hanson are still in the AHL. Maybe these three will work out, maybe, but things aren't exactly looking rosy on that front.

The NHL signings were absolute disasters. I don't know why anyone ever thought that signing Mike Komisarek to a 5 year contract at 4.5 (!!) million per year was a good idea. Komisarek has 12 goals, 46 assits for 58 points IN HIS ENTIRE CAREER. 377 games of offensive futility. For a supposedly defensively sound player, he sure seems to be out of position a lot too. I guess he's just trying to be truculent in his observing of defensive zone responsibility. The Beauchemin signing is definitely more defensible, but again, his defensive zone play hasn't exactly been inspiring.

And finally, the Kessel fiasco. The only reason this is even a conversation is because Kessel is playing out of his mind right now. And he hasn't even been THAT good. Kessel has 5 goals and 8 points in 8 games. Certainly a good thing, and he's looked sharp. But let's say he keeps that up (I doubt it, he's never been a point a game player), the Leafs gave up three of their four best chances to get better in the next two years for one point a game player. I wouldn't say he's even one of the 20 or 30 best players in the league.

Burke now has three assets that he could possibly trade: Kessel, Kaberle and Schenn. Anyone else on that team is absolutely toxic and no way another GM is touching them with a ten foot clown pole. What could he reasonably expect in return for Kaberle, the only one that he would probably trade? A top 6 forward and a second round pick? A first and third round pick? The Leafs would have taken 2 steps forward and 3 backwards. This is the amazing part about it, not only have Burke and Wilson made the Leafs worse in the short term, they are almost certainly worse off in the long term too. Where are they going?

Which brings me back to my original point. Why is Burke made of Teflon? What's his plan going forward? There is no argument to be made that he's rebuilding, and there's definitely not a claim to be made that the Leafs are better in the short term. And Wilson's team is the most disorganized and inefficient in the league; not exactly signs of quality coaching. I am not saying they need to be fired, it's a small sample size and they have a track record of reasonable success in the past. But please, please, someone hold these guys accountable. The media practically drove JFJ out with pitchforks and torches for much less than this disaster.

I wonder what the pictures depict.

NB

Thoughts on the Leafs...

2009-11-19T19:46:00.000-08:00

...are coming tomorrow. Should be interesting.

NB

Thinking about the Game: Part 2 (to be continued)

2009-08-06T21:55:00.001-07:00

I'm really sorry that I have to write this, only two weeks into the re-boot of the blog. I could give you a list of excuses, some better than others, but suffice to say I'll be missing my target of a Tuesday-Thursay posting schedule this week. I will be putting up another post either tomorrow night or early Sunday afternoon. Again, sorry.

Thinking about the Game: Part 1

2009-08-04T20:13:00.000-07:00

Now that I've comfortably settled back into writing on a semi-regular basis, I'll be doing my best to maintain a posting schedule of at least twice a week. Posts will usually appear on Tuesday and Thursday evenings. I hope you guys will keep making some time in your busy lives to read my junk.

Like my last post, the idea for this article has been kicking around in my head for a little while now. It's a pretty broad concept, and one post will not be enough to contain all my thoughts on the matter. I expect there to be a second part on Thursday, and then possibly a third part next week.

Game Theory:

Pick a sport that you like. If you are like me, you've probably at least put some passing thought into the strategic aspect of playing the sport of your choice. Growing up, I played a lot of hockey and soccer. Between games, I would sit and think about how they were played. Sometimes my thoughts bordered on the fantastical, but mostly I pondered realistic scenarios. I could draw up creative breakout plays or confounding defensive formations. However, despite my best planning, I always seemed to run up against the same roadblock in implementing my schemes: the players on my teams were never good enough to execute the precisely mapped out instructions. What I discovered was that I was always thinking of strategic execution not in terms of my own skill level, or that of my teammates, but in terms of the skill level of professional athletes. The skill involved in a precision pass, or perfectly timed up-field move, was not always available. At the level at which I wanted to apply my great ideas, they were infeasible.

When I think about how a sport is played, and any viable strategy involved in playing said sport well, I always think in terms of the highest possible level of play. I would never devise a strategy that assumed anything less than perfect play on the part of my opposition. Of course, having never played or coached at a professional level, this may seem odd. In fact, it is almost certainly detrimental to the success of the various teams with which I have been associated. In amateur athletics, the players make mistakes much more readily than professional athletes. Any appropriately tailored strategic approach should probably take this into account.

The Beautiful Game:

Let's follow this idea to its logical conclusion: I think of the professionals, or highest amateur level, as being more representative of any chosen sport than some pick-up game in your local park. This is probably an elitist thought, though I will debate that in the second part of this piece. For me, sports are not as much about the random and the unpredictable, though those things certainly make each individual match more exciting, as they are about exhibiting the limits to which the human body can be pushed in athletic endeavour.

I've played a lot of sports. Most of my childhood was spent either at a sporting event or en route to one (and my parents have the gas bills and mileage on our mini-van to prove it), yet if you asked me today about any of the sports I've played, I will always instinctively begin with talk about the highest level of the game. That doesn't mean that I don't cherish the time I've spent playing; I wouldn't trade any of it for the world. But I do think that I am in the minority in this. I think that most people probably think of their own experience with sport, rather than the game they've watched on t.v when talking about the game itself.

I'll try to tackle why this is, or why I think this is the way it is, in the second installment.

The Chasm

2009-07-30T11:20:00.000-07:00

I've been thinking about the separation between the haves and the have-nots of the sporting world. In leagues with salary caps, the NHL, the NBA and the NFL for instance, the gap between the big fish and the little fish is not as large. The rich are still better off than everyone else, but they don't wield an overwhelming competitive advantage. Does that make these sports more enjoyable to follow? Is it more interesting to watch the same five or six teams compete for a title every season, or would a rotating cast of contenders offer better entertainment? Any answer depends greatly on one's perspective. I'm sure every Yankees fan in the world is pretty happy with the current sports hierarchy, and that every Royals fan thinks it's terrible, but those are just two opinions. Thus, I will try my best to differentiate between the enjoyment of fans of specific teams and the enjoyment of fans of the sport. I will focus on whether it's a good thing for the talent to be concentrated on a small number of teams, or whether it makes for better viewing if it is spread more evenly throughout the league.

The Best Game You've Ever Seen:

The result of allowing teams to spend as much, or as little, as they choose is an uneven distribution of the available talent. I should preface this by saying that not all major free agent signings work out as they should, and that the teams with all the money don't always win. However, the successful small-market team is an exception, not the rule. Inevitably, even the best-assembled, youth-oriented small market teams fall to shambles. Big market teams with more resources at their disposal will attract the best free-agent talent and, usually, will be more talented because of this.

This has the tendency to make the regular season something of a joke. The teams with the massive financial advantage, and therefore usually the massive talent advantage, beat up on everyone else. I think this is a major negative for sports fans in general. Watching two unevenly matched teams is not very thrilling (assuming there is no possibility of elimination for the losing team). Furthermore, the overall level of play tends to be low. The teams that are adversely affected by a free-spending system will often put very poor products on the field. It's not just that they lose a lot of games, it's that these teams tend to be bad at playing the games. Why would anyone ever subject themselves to a Pirates-Diamondbacks game unless they were a die-hard fan of either team?

Now, if the regular season is the weakness of a free-spending system, then the playoffs are most certainly the strength. As the weaker teams are eliminated, the overall level of play is heightened, and it's not just because "It's the playoffs, everyone magically plays harder now! Woo platitudes without any in-depth analysis!". Now all the bad players on the bad teams are out of the equation, and only the good teams remain. A high calibre game of any sport requires two skilled teams, and the more skilled players you get on each team, the more likely it is that the game will be played well. The best game you will ever see, not necessarily the closest, but the one played at the highest level, will almost certainly be between two teams with skilled players. In a free-spending system, this is more likely to occur than in a system in which the talent is more evenly distributed. Sure it's possible for two mediocre teams to suddenly play well beyond their normal means, but it's far less likely.

Love of the Sport Versus Love of the League:

If you love following Major League Baseball, and you're not a fan of the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers or Mets, you're probably somewhat disenchanted with the division between the rich and the poor. You are witness to the same storyline about the big market teams succeeding where everyone fails every year. There's a rotating cast of upstarts (see: Tampa Bay Rays), but they come and go every couple of years. Some don't even last that long. By mid-season, your interest and early enthusiasm have certainly waned. It's just not fun to watch every one else act as professional farm teams.

But if you love baseball, not MLB, but baseball, you probably are at least indifferent to the chasm between the rich and the poor, and you might even like it. During the regular season, you will occasionally be treated to high profile games between two good teams, and when the playoffs roll around, the level of play is through the roof. If the talent was diluted, there's no way the games themselves would be played so well. And as a fan of the game, don't you want to see the very best play at the very highest level possible?

I find myself vacillating between the two positions. Some of the excitement of following sports comes from the unpredictability of it, and knowing at the beginning of every season that some teams will be there at the end and some won't certainly takes away from that. Yet, when the playoffs roll around, I never cheer for an upset. I always want the stronger team to win because I want the game to be played at the highest level possible, and the better team is more likely to do that. And in a playoff bracket of four teams, if the two best teams win their match-ups, then the following series should provide even better play.

I guess I'm saying I secretly love the Yankees and Red Sox and their money-grubbing, talent hoarding ways.

Oh god.

The Roy Halladay Dilemma: Part 2

2009-07-28T21:01:00.000-07:00

Apologies for the tardiness of this post. I had fully intended to write this column as a response to whatever trade that the Blue Jays had foolishly rushed into, but J.P Riccardi seems to have held off. Normally I'm not a huge Richard Griffin fan, but here he is essentially making the same case that I made in my post on Friday. It's like he's reading my blog or something!

Where does all of this leave the Blue Jays? Are they going to trade Roy Halladay? Who knows! Anyone who says they know is lying to you. It's really impossible to tell at this point. The better question has become, what kind of state are the Blue Jays in? In my opinion, they're a .500 team with their current roster. Trading Roy Halladay would make them substantially worse in the short run, and probably won't even improve them in the long run. What SHOULD the Jays do?

1. Build around their young core:

The Jays do have some promising young talent. On the pitchings side, I like Ricky Romero, though his K/BB and WHIP are a little high for my liking. I think he slots in as a good number 3 starter. Scott Richmond, if healthy, is even better and I think he has the potential to be a good number 2 starter.

From a hitting perspective, I love Adam Lind. Really,you can't complain about a guy who in his first full season with the big club has an OPS over .900. I also like Aaron Hill. I know as a Blue Jay fan that it's blasphemy to say a bad word about Hill, but the man absoblutely refuses to walk. I know, he's hit 24 homers. I know. But let's be real about Mr. Hill for a second here. Until this season, he had never hit more than 17 home runs in a season. He'll probably end up with about 30 or so this year, but I would bet my life he averages about 20 or so, at the most, for the rest of his career. Thus, his cripplingly low OBP is almost certainly going to be a problem. His careers OPS, over 574 games, is a measly .764. That, my friends, is not that good at all. So yes, I like Hill's defense and his new found power-stroke, but no, he is not nearly the player Roberto Alomar was. Stop making that comparison, it is insane.

Overbay and Scutaro are both good, but not great, offensive players. They are worth keeping around at a reasonable cost. Scott Rolen is having a great season too, but the man is 34 and not getting any younger. If J.P can find the fountain of youth, and hook Rolen up, keep him around.

2. Deal with the dead weight:

Oh boy do the Jays have a lot of that. Vernon Wells and Alex Rios pretty well simultaneously pulled fast ones on Blue Jays management. Everyone that's calling for them to be traded should remember that at the time they were signed to their big contracts, every Blue Jays fan applauded the moves. Wells was supposed to be the Jays' franchise player and Rios would be his side-kick in vaulting the team up the A.L East standings. Most fans were staunchly opposed to trading Rios for Tim Lincecum. Keeping Wells in Toronto was a coup for what some considered to be a small market team. Keeping homegrown talent was supposed to be a major step.

In hindsight, those two have got to go, and in a hurry. I think the problem is that it will be extremely difficult to convince some team, any team, to even take a flyer on either of the two. They have both looked awful. The only way that a Halladay trade might benefit the Jays would involve dumping one of these two.

3. Pray they are relocated to another division:

I kid. Seriously, though, the Blue Jays are going to have a real hard go of it for the foreseeable future. The Yankees and Red Sox will always be competitive, and the Rays look set for the next couple of years at least. Even Baltimore is getting better. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't see how the Blue Jays can contend. They are at least two big bats away from being close.

Halladay the symbol:

In the end, any potential Roy Halladay trade. or lack of trade, alone probably won't make the Blue Jays either big winners or losers in the A.L East. The sad truth is that unless they undergo a fairly radical overhaul, the Jays can't hope to compete in a division with two of baseball's richest teams. The competitive disadvantage is simply too great. Roy Halladay is a symbol of the problems with baseball. All the big boys have all the toys. The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers of the world may not win every year, but they'll always have a chance to win. The Blue Jays are not even a small-market team, yet they are considering giving up their best asset because they have no hope of competing. They can't hope to win. And yet, for some reason, I'll keep watching.

I promise the next post won't end on such a low note.

The Roy Halladay Dilemma: Part 1

2009-07-23T22:57:00.000-07:00

I will preface this by saying it feels good to be back. I'll be updating fairly regularly for the foreseeable future. If I won't be posting for a prolonged period, I'll be sure to advertise it well ahead of time. But without further delay, I give you part one of a two part series on the intrigue surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays' decision as to whether or not they should trade their ace Roy Halladay. Enjoy.

What to do with Doc?

Much has already been written about the theoretical trading of one Roy Halladay. It is a complicated situation, and to lift from one of my favourite writers, it is also packed with peanuts. The first question that needs to be addressed is perhaps the most basic: Should the Toronto Blue Jays attempt to trade Halladay? The answer is actually not as clear as some pundits would have you believe. Most people that follow baseball would agree that Halladay is probably the best pitcher in all of baseball. Statistical evidence to back this claim up is not necessary, but can be found here if you are curious.

The way that most trades unfold in baseball involve one team trading a star, or superstar, calibre player in return for a collection of young players and/or minor league prospects. In reading the many Halladay rumours, what becomes immediately apparent is that none of the potential suitors are willing to give up an MLB-ready roster player. The Blue Jays are essentially left to pick through a package of prospects and other possibilities. Most of these are players that are projected to be good, but could just as easily never even make it to the major leagues. Right now, the consensus best pitching prospect in baseball is Stephen Strasburg, who was just drafted first overall by the Washington Nationals. Ignoring for a second the complicated logistics of the Nats' attempts to sign Strasburg (50 million dollars seems like a lot for a kid who has yet to pitch a single game in the majors, but that's neither here nor there), what is the absolute best case scenario for Strasburg's development? Isn't it a Halladay-like career? The man's put up Hall of Fame numbers for years now.

So, hypothetically speaking, Strasburg should have the best chance to just duplicate Halladay's career, let alone surpass it. Now, none of the teams in the running for Halladay are even offering the top prospects in their systems, let alone anyone of the calibre of Strasburg. Baseball prospects are notoriously difficult to evaluate with any degree of precision. If we pegged Strasburg as having a 50-50 chance of having a Halladay-like career, and, frankly, I think that's being generous, wouldn't everyone else have a much lower chance?

To sum up, the Blue Jays are proposing the following: to take a sure thing, probably the best of its kind, and trade it for a package of possibilities. Strictly from a team building perspective, this seems like a futile excercise. The odds are simply too stacked against them. Which means none of this makes sense, why would J.P Ricciardi commit career suicide?

Unless of course, Doc Halladay has told the Blue Jays' management that he won't re-sign with the team after next season (when his contract expires). This part confuses me as well. Roy Halladay is one of the most loyal athletes in all of professional sports. In fact, one could say Roy has been loyal to a fault. He signed a big extension when the team was in much worse shape than it is today. Why now would he suddenly have a change of heart about the city? If he was really thinking of bolting after the 2010 season, wouldn't we have heard something, anything, to that effect? If I were in Halladay's position, I would at least consider signing with a contending team, but it's always been his insistence that he wanted to be part of building a playoff calibre team in Toronto. I also would never believe that Halladay would force J.P's hand with a trade demand. Further, if he had requested a trade, J.P would absolutely have leaked that aspect to the media as well.

The Nuts and Bolts of the Situation:

All of this adds up to a lot of confusion on my part. I see no real reason the Blue Jays are in such a panic to trade the most valuable asset in the market. To summarize their position using a metaphor: the Blue Jays are a factory and they have the best machine in the factory business. It is a highly loyal machine that has never indicated it wanted to leave for another, better factory, instead choosing to remain with the inferior factory. Out of fear of losing this machine when its contract expires, a somewhat unfounded fear I would suggest, factory management propose to trade it for several boxes of unassembled parts. Some of these boxes of parts contain highly combustible materials. There is a very good chance that once assembled these boxes of parts will amount to nothing useful. There is just as good a chance that they will combust and never even make it into the factory, leaving a wake of fiery destruction behind them (Okay, that last part might have been a bit of hyperbole). There is also a very, very, very remote chance these newly assembled parts will contribute to the well-being of the factory. There is an almost zero percent chance these newly assembled machines will replace the best, most loyal machine they just traded for these boxes of parts. And everyone is in agreement that this is good business? This is how to keep your factory open, err, run a successful baseball team?

This all makes no sense, and yet the Blue Jays are intent on making it happen. Thus, part two of this piece will examine the return the Blue Jays can expect for Halladay, as well as further consequences of trading the good doctor. You can expect to see the post Monday evening.

Tomorrow

2009-07-23T12:29:00.000-07:00

...there will be a new post. If you're reading this, I'm back.

The LeBron James Show

2009-01-10T12:21:00.000-08:00

I know we haven’t even reached the halfway mark of the NBA season. I know there is still so much to decide. I know these things. I am aware of the dangers of making bold predictions less than 40 games into the season. Believe me, I am well aware. But now that I have all that out of the way, I think we can safely say that if things stay as they are, no one is touching the Cavs. There are so many reasons to believe this.

The Cavaliers are now 19-0 at home:

They won’t go 41-0 at home, but they are not just beating teams at home; they are demolishing them. The Q was popping last night and it gave the game a playoff-like atmosphere. I never thought I’d say that Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland would be a scary place to play, but it sure looked like it last night. How does Cleveland lose a 7 game series with home court advantage? If they lock up the number one overall seed, I really think they are going to win it all.

LeBron James has no regard for human life:

This header is pulled from Marv Albert’s call on one of LeBron’s vicious dunks in the Celtics-Cavaliers series last year. Here’s the youtube clip, including Marv’s fantastic call.

LeBron is unstoppable. The Celtics had no answer for him in any aspect of the game and they are supposed to be the best defensive team in basketball. He went for 38 pts, seven rebounds, 6 assists, four steals and three blocks. Those are, dare I say it, Jordan-esque numbers. He even went made all nine of his free throws.

The Celtics are struggling without a real outside shooting threat:

The Celtics second unit is a joke. Their starting five is still probably the best in the league, definitely the best when Rajon Rondo is clicking, but after those five, they have nothing. Last night was a good example of that. Eddie House, their supposed scorer off the bench went 2-7 in 19 minutes of play and didn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of the Cavs’ defenders. Big Baby Davis put up a whopping 0 points on 0 of 4 shooting and aside from 3 offensive rebounds, he was a non-factor.

The Celtics had this missing piece last year in James Posey. Against weaker teams, it is not a big deal, the Celtics overcome their offensive struggles with defensive dominance. However, as they are presently constituted, I don’t see how they break down the Cavaliers stunning defense. Heck, Orlando might even give them a run for their money if they played a seven game series today.

We can all calm down on crowning Rajon Rondo the best Point Guard in the East:

When the Celtics were rolling on their 19 game win streak, people started to get a little crazy about Rajon. I’ll admit I probably got a little caught up in the hype myself, but I think it’s time we all took a step back. Rondo did get 13 assists, no small feat, but he couldn’t hit the ocean with his jumper. As the game progressed, the Cavaliers started doubling off him to help on KG and sometimes on Pierce. A number of Rondo’s assists were just run of the mill passes that his shooters knocked down too. He wasn’t getting the kind of penetration the Celts need from him. During the Celtics 4 game losing streak, he is shooting 30% from the floor, 55% (!!) from the FT line and he has only 27 assists to 14 turnovers. It’s been ugly folks and without a serviceable back up PG, the Celtics live and die with Rondo.

I had hoped last night’s game would be a classic between two very good basketball teams, but it turned into a bit of a lopsided victory. It’s just one game, but I can’t help but see this as a microcosm of where the Celts and Cavs are at right now. If I had to put my life’s savings on one team, it would be the Cavaliers. A month ago, I would have said the Celtics. If they acquire an outside shooting threat, say a Jason Kapono, then I might have to go back to Boston. For now though, it’s LeBron and the Cavs’ world and we are all just living in it.

Cleveland - Boston: TONIGHT!

2009-01-09T15:03:00.001-08:00

I've sufficiently recovered from my ACL surgery so that I don't need to be drugged all day. I'm planning on watching the Celts-Cavs game tonight and doing a mini post-game synopsis after the fact. It's the second biggest game of this season and should be highly entertaining. There are tons of subplots:

What's wrong with Boston lately?
Can Cleveland continue its undefeated start on home court?
Does this year's edition of the Cavs have way it takes to take down the Celts?

The post will probably go up sometime tomorrow in the early afternoon. Should be a great game.

20 Second Timeout

2009-01-03T11:51:00.000-08:00

I'm taking a little time off from writing while I get back on my feet (literally) for the start of the semester. I recently had major reconstructive surgery on my left knee and the pain killers are making me exceedingly dopey, which in turn makes it hard to write. I'll be back as soon as I can manage to hold a coherent thought for more than 20 seconds at a time. Thanks to everyone who's been reading so far, you are all great. 2009 is going to be sweet.

Christmas Wishlist: Western Conference

2008-12-26T20:18:00.000-08:00

This post comes a little bit late, but the holiday season has been wildly busy for me. I am also without my usual editor pushing me to write, so I’ll have to admit that some of this has been laziness. I hope you guys are enjoying what I’ve been putting out so far. A big thanks to everyone that’s been reading along.

Without further ado, I give you the second half of my Christmas Wish List column.

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets:

What they want:

Kenyon Martin’s contract is one of the most ridiculous in the business but at least he’s putting up something close to his career numbers. Even though the Nuggets have been good since acquiring Billups (recent slide notwithstanding), Carmelo Anthony is a shell of his former self. How can he be putting up the worst numbers of his career with an unselfish distributor like Billups? It just doesn’t make any sense

What they will get:

The Nuggets got away with highway robbery in the Iverson deal. Billups was exactly what this team needed and with Nene healthier than ever, the Nuggets will cruise to 50 wins. Unfortunately, I can’t see a way in which they get past the Lakers in the West, but they’re a whole lot closer than they were at the start of the season.

Portland Trailblazers:

What they want:

For their inexperienced young core to gain the experience necessary to contend for a championship. All the pieces are there, it’s just a question of playing together, and in the playoffs for a year or two before they are ready to win it all. The only other real concern is the health of Greg Oden. If Oden stays healthy (and figures out a way to stop committing almost 4 fouls a game), the Trailblazers are a terrifying team

What they’ll get:

Probably the happiest first round exit in league history. Things are so bright for Portland with the Roy-Aldridge-Fernandez-Oden core that it’s just a matter of time. Everyone who follows the NBA knows it, it’s virtually inevitable. Especially if Oden stays healthy, pencil them in as early contenders for 2010 and 2011.

Utah Jazz:

What they want:

To continue to fly under the radar while their team gets healthy. The Jazz are absolutely loaded in their depth, with only the Lakers surpassing them. When Carlos Boozer is back and healthy, the Jazz are a very scary team. They are so good at home that they need a top four finish in order to take advantage of those crazy Mormon fans.

What they will get:

The quietest 55 win season in NBA history. Everyone is so focused on the Big Three, Portland, Orlando and the reborn Nuggets that Utah is getting almost no coverage. The Jazz will be around until the final 8 at very least, if not the final 4.

Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder:

These two teams depress me so much I made the executive decision to combine their sections into one. It’s my blog, so I’ll do what I want.

First off, the Thunder shouldn’t even be in Oklahoma City. Seattle got absolutely jobbed. Secondly, Kevin McHale must have incriminating pictures of someone high up in the Timberwolves organization to still have his job. If it wasn’t for Kevin Durant and, to a lesser extent, Al Jefferson, there would be nothing positive to write about these two teams. May God have mercy on their fans.

Pacific Division:

L.A Lakers:

What they want:

The Lakers got exactly what they wanted with an impressive win over a Celtics team that was on an absolute rampage. Although they couldn’t stop KG or Pierce, they did a great job of keeping Allen and Rondo in check. Really, any Lakers fan is pretty happy already

What they will get:

I still wonder if the Lakers will be able to consistently play at the level that they demonstrated against Boston. This is a team that has been sleep-walking lately and lack of motivation is a scary thing. I still think they are so talented that they will cruise in the West but I don’t feel quite as good about them as I did at the outset of the season.

Phoenix Suns:

What they want:

A little more cohesion on a team with a lot of talent would be nice. If Shaquille O’Neal morphed into himself from 20 years ago, that would help too. Their management want them to slow the game down and play a half-court game. I don’t think the same can be said for a large part of their roster.

What they will get:

Rolling to dice to get the Diesel was a risky move and right now it seems to blowing up in the Suns’ face. Their offense is still plenty deadly, they are 4th in the league in offensive efficiency, but their defense is not a whole lot better despite Terry Porter’s claims to the contrary. I hate to say it, but the Suns are losing ground in the West fast. They will finish 7th or 8th and bow out in the first round

L.A Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings:

Once again, my blog, so I’ll do what I want. These three teams are all going pretty much nowheresville this season. For everyone’s talk about how strong the West is, the top teams’ records benefit greatly from having some really terrible teams to pick on.

The Clippers’ roster is a dysfunctional mess. Zach Randolph and Baron Davis, their two marquee players, are completely incompatible. Asking Randolph to run the court is futile. The Clippers want to stay relevant in L.A. I think they need to engineer a major rebuild for that to happen

Golden State is a team that plays the run and gun, but is actually a pretty terrible shooting team. Their three leading scorers, Jackson, Maggette and Crawford are all shooting less than 42 percent. Wow. They want to outscore every team they play. They won’t do that until they unload at least a couple of their gunners. At least they still have Andris Biedrins.

The Sacramento Kings’ page on ESPN.com still features Ron Artest. Here, see for yourself: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac (He’s pictured dribbling the ball in the top left corner). I think that says just about everything about the kind of season the Kings are having.

Southwest Division:

San Antonio Spurs:

What they want:

Get everyone healthy for the playoffs. With Tim Duncan, Greg Popovich, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, the Spurs always have a shot to win it all. The Spurs are kind of boring to write about, but you have to respect their skill. As a basketball fan, I don’t really like them, but I do admire them.

What they will get:

I think the Spurs make it to the quarterfinals, but this is the year that their bench depth fails them. After the amazing Roger Mason, there isn’t a whole lot going for them. All that being said, never, ever, bet against Tim Duncan.

New Orleans Hornets:

What they want:

They don’t just want, they desperately need Peja Stojakovic to make their team work. For all of Chris Paul’s brilliance and David West’s skill as a scorer, the Hornets require Peja’s outside shooting to make their offense work.

What they will get:

A healthy Peja makes New Orleans a definite threat to the Lakers. Chris Paul is such a dominating guard that I can envision them taking down the Lakers and they are the only team in the West I can say that about.

Houston Rockets:

What they want:

Tracy McGrady needs to remember that he’s a good basketball player. He is ruining the Rockets, and that’s not an exaggeration in any way. They still play good defense but they need T-Mac to win in the playoffs.

What they will get:

They’re stuck in this glut of teams right below the Lakers. Like the Hornets, Jazz, Spurs and Nuggets, they have a chance to win the West, but only an outside shot. If T-Mac is over the hill, they are out in the first round. If he can find the fountain of youth, they could go to the Conference Finals or maybe even the finals.

Dallas Mavericks:

What they want:

Jason Kidd needs to revive his career just long enough to get the Mavericks through the playoffs. Dirk Nowitzki is still one of the league’s absolute best players, Jason Terry has been fantastic off the bench and Josh Howard has been solid but they need Kidd to run the point and distribute the ball.

What they will get:

The Kidd trade may have seemed like a good idea at the time but now he looks like he has to take Advil to get out of bed every morning. If Kidd doesn’t get rejuvenated in a real hurry, the Mavericks are doomed to a first round exit.

Memphis Grizzlies:

At least they have the Gay-Mayo combo. That’s about it.

Christmas Wishlist: Eastern Conference

2008-12-25T22:02:00.000-08:00

In the spirit of the holiday season, it’s time to look at what each NBA team wants for Christmas. Unfortunately for some of these teams, there is no Santa in the NBA to bring them yuletide cheer. They are stuck with cold, hard reality. I’ll go through the teams by division in the Eastern Conference today and then the Western Conference on Friday.

Atlantic Division:

Boston Celtics:

What they want:

A victory over the Lakers in their marquee Christmas Day matchup would the icing on the cake of a season that has gone absolutely perfectly so far. Everything else has gotten absolutely perfectly. They have practically clinched a playoff berth already with a 13 and a half (!!) game lead over 9th place Chicago. Their season won’t really start until the playoffs

What they’ll get:

I wouldn’t bet against Boston winning tomorrow or making a return trip to the finals. As good as Cleveland and L.A have been, Boston has to be the favourite right now. Boston’s been good and Santa is going to reward them

New Jersey Nets:

What they want:

The continued speedy development of Brook Lopez and the sustained play at a ridiculously high level by Devin Harris. It would also be nice if they could get out of the Swamp.

What they’ll get:

The Nets are playing a whole lot better than pretty well anybody expected and a lot of that has to do with Devin Harris morphing into an unstoppable slashing guard. I see no reason for that to stop any time soon. Lopez has looked good in the action that he’s seen but he’s not the third scoring option they so desperately need. Much to Jay-Z’s dismay, they ain’t leaving New Jersey any time soon

Philadelphia 76ers:

What they want:

Elton Brand to live up to the massive contract they signed him to in the offseason. Someone who can make a 15 foot jumper when Brand is getting quintuple teamed in the low post.

What they’ll get:

It’s too early to make definitive judgements with regards to the Brand signing, but it does seem like they are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole. Brand is a half-court, post-up player who demands double teams. The 76ers succeeded last year because they ran like crazy and their high flyers made easy baskets in transition and thus masked their horrifying inability to make outside shots. As long as they don’t have any outside shooting, 76ers fans will be stuck watching their team trying to fast break with four players while Brand lags back court

New York Knicks:

What they want:

For LeBron to openly declare that he is coming to the Big Apple in the summer of 2010. If Nate Robinson and David Lee continue having career years to distract from the facts that the Knicks are THROWING THIS SEASON that would help ease the transition. But mostly just the LeBron thing.

What they’ll get:

LeBron is way too business savvy to tip his hand with regards to 2010. There has been a lot of speculation concerning his love of NYC but, at least for now, I can’t see him making a choice one way or another. Knicks fans, you can only hope these next two years of suffering aren’t for naught.

Toronto Raptors:

What they want:

An athletic swingman would be nice. Some secondary scoring to help Chris Bosh out a little would be appreciated. If things keep going as they are, it might be best to wish for a swift, merciful end to the season.

What they’ll get:

Another wasted all-star season from Chris Bosh. Jermaine O’Neal has been a bust so far and his contract is becoming burdensome. Jose Calderon has played well at times, but not quite at the level that some expected. Andrea Bargnani....well, you get the idea. Things aren’t getting better any time soon. Get ready for a big lump of coal.

Central Division:

Cleveland Cavaliers:

What they want:

To win an NBA title either this season or next in order to convince LeBron to stay. To that end, for the Celtics to stop being so damn good and ruining their chances of winning the Larry O’Brian Trophy.

What they’ll get:

Another fantastic season, and perhaps the first MVP trophy of many to come from LeBron. Unfortunately, what really matters is the playoffs and Boston is still the team to beat, despite Cleveland’s outstanding start. Will LeBron stay or will he go? I have no idea.

Detroit Pistons:

What they want:

To have a do-over on the Billups-Iverson trade. A return to form for Rasheed Wallace and some more minutes for Rodney Stuckey.

What they’ll get:

The Pistons must have made the Iverson trade with the goal of clearing cap space for 2010 because they could not be a worse fit for A.I. He has slowed a step and his perimeter defence has greatly deteriorate. Rasheed Wallace might be over the hill by now, he’s 34, and he isn’t getting any younger. Stuckey has looked pretty okay, but nothing to write home about this season. Joe Dumars and co. are hoping to land a big free agent to go along with Prince and Hamilton, but what those two need above all else is a high quality point guard who will get them the ball. They just traded that away. Maybe Dumars sees something I don't. Regardless, things are not looking so bright.

Milwaukee Bucks:

What they want:

To have Michael Redd stay healthy and start making jumpers again. To have Ramon Sessions continue to develop and eventually replace Luke Ridnour. A player who can create his own shot.

What they’ll get:

Richard Jefferson continuing to eat up more than 13 million in salary while shooting 42 percent from the field. Yikes. Another .500 record and a battle for the 8th playoff spot in the East. At least the Packers are good and Brett Favre is leading them to glory again. Oh wait.

Chicago Bulls:

What they want:

Considering how well Derrick Rose has turned out, I don’t think the Bulls can ask for much more. I guess if Luol Deng lived up to his mega-deal that would be nice, but I think Bulls fans are so euphoric from the arrival of Rose that everything else seems trivial.

What they’ll get:

The Bulls are another team with a chance a shot at the 8th spot in the East and not much else. I don’t think this season matters too much, the Bulls will have their chances in the coming years.

Indiana Pacers:

What they want:

For T.J Ford to do a little more passing and a little less shooting. One more play maker to help Danny Granger out. Right now, the Pacers are Granger, MeJay and a whole lot of role players.

What they’ll get:

A lottery finish and a high draft pick. Danny Granger is someone to build around and maybe they could be something in a couple of years. They aren’t there yet. If someone could talk T.J Ford into passing a bit more, he could be a deadly point guard with his tremendous speed, but I don’t know if that’s possible.

Southeast Division:

Orlando Magic:

What they want:

To contend in the Eastern Conference with Cleveland and Boston. For Jameer Nelson to continue to have a career year and good health for Mickael Pietrus.

What they’ll get:

Some people would contend that I have a bone to pick with the Magic based on the fact that I don’t include them in discussions about the NBA’s elite teams. Dwight Howard is a beast and Rashard Lewis is a very good scorer. With the addition of Mickael Pietrus, they now have a lock down defender who can pitch in offensively too. All this points to the Magic being very good but I think too much is riding on Jameer Nelson. If Nelson keeps this pace up all year, they are very close to Boston and Cleveland. If he regresses, they aren’t. Good luck Jameer!

Atlanta Hawks:

What they want:

Josh Smith getting it together would help. He’s been a little off so far this
season. If some people came to watch this exciting basketball, maybe the Phillips Arena wouldn’t seem so much like a morgue.

What they’ll get:

A great up and coming team with a bright future that will contend for years to come. Josh Smith will round back into form and the Hawks will win 45-50 games. Look for Marvin Williams to keep improving...but the fans still won’t show. It is Atlanta we are talking about after all.

Miami Heat:

What they want:

Beasley becoming a viable secondary option behind Wade would improve their chances going forward. Find a willing trade partner for Shawn Marion. I don’t think the Heat need Marion’s skill set as much as they need a true big man.

What they will get:

Dwayne Wade carrying them to a 40-45 win season and hopefully a half decent draft pick. The Heat are still a prime free agent destination, so if they unload Marion for cap room, maybe they make a run at a major free agent.

Charlotte Bobcats:

What they want:

The Bobcats are stuck in a big way. They have one useful player, Gerald Wallace, one player with potential, D.J Augustin, and a whole bunch of role players making way too much money. They need a new team.

What they will get:

Larry Brown trying to murder Sean May with his eyes before the season’s over and at best a 35 win season. Bobcats management has doomed this team for a long time to come. It’s really kind of sad.

Washington Wizards:

I can’t even bring myself to write about the Wizards. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are having good years and everybody else is a catastrophe. I don’t see Arenas’ return as saving this team either. If the Wizards win 25 games this year, it will be a success.

I Love the NBA

2008-12-18T23:24:00.000-08:00

After finishing my post on the Big Three, I watched most of the fourth quarter of the Trail Blazers-Suns game. First of all, absolutely fantastic game. Brandon Roy goes off for a career high 52 points and both teams shoot over 50% from the field. Boston, L.A and Cleveland may be the teams this year, but Portland is definitely the team of the future. Second of all, I now love Portland fans. I'm sure most of you have already seen the video of the dancing fans from the highlights, but if you haven't, please check it out. I'll try to post a link to a video tomorrow morning in the a.m.

The Big Three

2008-12-18T22:14:00.001-08:00

I hate to take all the suspense out of this engrossing NBA season, but I’ve come upon a truth: only the Celtics, Lakers and Cavaliers have a chance to win the 2009 NBA championship. As of this writing, their combined record stands at 66-9, giving them an outrageous .880 winning percentage. For all three teams to continue winning at this clip seems to be asking a bit much, but I can envision a situation where all three teams win at least 65 games. Boston and Cleveland will be pushing each other all the way down to the wire for the 1st overall seed in the East and the Lakers have the deepest roster in the association.

The most telling indicator of all, though, is the point differential they are all sporting. The Celtics are +10, the Lakers at +10.3 and the Cavaliers are running at a crazy +13.1. These teams aren’t just beating everyone else, they are demolishing them. Why is this important? It means that the bench players are making their way into the game more often and the work load is lessened for the superstar players. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett are all averaging at or near career lows in minutes played. This isn’t just a hot start. This domination is going to continue. Both the Lakers and the Celtics may be even BETTER than they were last year, as crazy as that sounds, and the Cavaliers have taken a quantum leap forward. These are the only three teams with a real chance to win it all and I will outline why.

The Case for the Lakers:

Make no mistake about it; the Lakers are Kobe Bryant’s team. He is one of the league’s most dangerous scorers and he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the last five minutes of a game. The difference between this team and Lakers teams of the past is that Kobe isn’t left to do it all himself. Pau Gasol is a legitimate threat in the low post. He’s giving them 18 and 9 on average in only 35 minutes per game. However, the real advantage that the Lakers are enjoying this year versus last year is the emergence of Andrew Bynum. Bynum has gone from long term project to one of the best young centres in the league. As a shot blocker and banger, he is the perfect complimentary player to Gasol’s finesse game. The scary part is that he’s only going to get better. I haven’t even mentioned Derek Fisher, Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza. The Lakers are stacked and Phil Jackson will keep them motivated. The only reason I can’t see them getting to 65 or maybe even 70 wins is that there isn’t a true challenger in the West to their supremacy. The Nuggets and Jazz are close, but don’t have the same depth as the Lakers. The Lakers are so deep that they could survive an injury to any player on their roster. And I do mean any player.

The Case for the Celtics:

The defending champions haven’t missed a beat this season. In fact, they are off to an even better start this year than last year when they ended up winning 66 games and the title. They have successfully offset the loss of James Posey to free agency and a downturn in production from Paul Pierce by continuing to play smothering team defence. The biggest improvement from last year, however, is the play of Rajon Rondo. Rondo’s assertiveness in taking the ball to the basket has improved dramatically and his distribution of the ball has reached All-Star levels. He is averaging career highs in all the major offensive categories and most importantly for the Celtics, he is shooting almost 52% from the field. Doubling off Rondo is becoming less and less of an option for teams looking to shut KG down in the low post. He is able to consistently run the Celtics’ half court offense and looks more confident in his play every game. The Celtics, led by the over-the-top intensity of Garnett will keep pushing to win until the very end. Barring major injuries, if they fall short of 60 wins and an appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will offer all readers a full refund.

The Case for the Cavaliers:

In the minds of some, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the most to prove of the three teams. They won only 45 games last year and were bounced by the Celts in the second round. However, this Cavaliers team is drastically different from last year’s edition. They are led by the most dominant player in the entire league. LeBron James has become virtually unstoppable. I have watched a number of Cavs games this year and every time LeBron starts to drive to the basket one of three things happen: the entire opposing team collapses on him and he gets fouled, the entire opposing team collapses on him, he demolishes anyone in his way and dunks the ball anyways, or the entire opposing team collapses on him and he kicks it out to a wide open shooter. Despite a lower point per game production than in past years, LeBron is having arguably his best season. He is shooting a career high percentage from the field and from the free throw line. Even though he is playing the fewest minutes of his career is still averaging over six rebounds and assists a game.

The theory is that one man teams can’t win it all. There are two counter-points to that. The first is that LeBron is an absolutely extraordinary player. If he keeps improving, which is scary but possible, we are headed towards Michael Jordan territory. The second counter-point is that LeBron actually has a good team this time. Not just decent, but good. In recent years, the Cavaliers have always been near the top of the league in defence, but near the bottom on offense. The acquisition of Mo Williams has finally given Cleveland the sharp shooter they so desperately needed to make all those open jumpers that LeBron creates for his teammates. Big Z and Delonte West are also having career years in terms of shooting percentage. Finally, the supporting cast has caught up with LeBron’s talent.

With everything finally falling into place, the Cavs are first in the league in Offensive Efficiency and second in the league in Defensive Efficiency. That is insanity. It’s completely unheard of in modern basketball. If you have the best offensive team in the league and the second best, but very close to best, defensive team in the league, you are going to win a whole lot of basketball games. The Cavaliers are absolutely for real and will push the Celtics all year long for the East crown. The only thing that could keep them from competing with the Celtics is an injury to LeBron. However, he has proven himself remarkably durable in never playing less than 75 games in a season.

It can’t be reasonably expected that any of these teams will win 70 games, but I fully expect all of them to get to at least 60 and maybe we’ll be treated to a run at 70. This season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. I cannot wait.

Quick NBA Thoughts

2008-12-17T22:11:00.000-08:00

As the NBA season chugs past the 25 game mark, a separation between the haves and the have-nots is beginning to take place. There are three legitimate juggernauts (Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers), ten good teams with a chance of making noise in the playoffs and then everyone else. Twenty-five games into the season, there are thirteen teams that have won eleven games or less. That, my friends, is ugly. On the whole, however, I think the disparity is actually good for the fans. If you are a fan of the Thunder, it’s not much fun to watch your team lose 117-82 to Cleveland, but, as a fan of basketball, the level of play amongst the stronger teams has been an absolute joy to watch. I cannot wait for the L.A-Boston game on Christmas Day. Cleveland – Denver on Friday should be great and the Detroit – Atlanta game on Sunday will be good too. It seems like every day or two, there is a good to great basketball game being played. The game tonight between the Celtics and Hawks was a great example of how much fun a basketball game can be. There was intense play on both ends of the court, skilled players making big shots at the end and the game wasn’t decided until the final buzzer.

I’ve been following the NBA closely for about eight years now and I can’t remember being so excited about the league. There has been a major influx of high quality players in the last five years or so and the level of play has risen accordingly. Even the bad teams have diamonds in the rough. O.J Mayo and Derrick Rose have looked fantastic and Michael Beasley has shown flashes of brilliance. As a Raptors fan, it’s been tough. Their performance against Dallas tonight didn’t exactly give me a lot of hope. Every time I’m down though, I’ll flip to SportsCentre and see a clip of LeBron James absolutely destroying the rim on a fast break. I am immediately reminded of why I love basketball.

On Thursday, I’ll have an in-depth post up about the big three and why I think no one else will challenge for the title.

Burnett Flies the Coop

2008-12-15T21:52:00.001-08:00

A.J Burnett’s signing with the Yankees this past weekend was an important moment for the Toronto Blue Jays and their plans for 2009 and beyond. On Friday, Burnett and the Yankees agreed on a 5 year, 82.5 million dollar contract. Losing Burnett will hurt the Blue Jays, he put together an outstanding stretch to close out the season. The question boils down to this: is losing Burnett for the amount of money the Yankees paid him a major loss or not? The answer is, surprisingly, not that clear.
A.J Burnett has great “stuff”, the term used to describe his arsenal of pitches. His heater hits the high 90’s, he has a great curveball and a solid slider. When A.J is on, he is nearly unhittable. He is, however, prone to giving up big innings. For whatever reason, he will go through an inning or two at a time where he seems to be serving up batting practice pitches. Sometimes, after that unexplained rough patch, he will get it back together and strikes out 13 over the last 6 innings. Watching A.J Burnett pitch is exhilarating and maddening at the same time. It’s a confusing set of emotions.

All of that aside, Burnett is also a productive pitcher in a more concrete sense of the word. His career ERA of 3.81 is very good and his 8.36 K/9 is nothing to sneeze at. With a bit more luck over the years, he would almost certainly have a better career won-loss record than the 87-76 record he currently sports. The irony of all this is that Burnett just had his best season in terms of wins and losses, going 18-10, but one of his worst season in almost every other meaningful statistical category. His WHIP was the highest of his career in any season in which he made more than 13 starts. His ERA, 4.07, was the highest of his three years with the Jays. He is also 32 years old with a long history of injury problems. He has only pitched more than 200 innings three times in his career, two of which were contract years. In short, he is a man of contradictions and frustrating potential.

The Blue Jays tried very hard to sign him, but in the end they were squeezed out by a bigger market team. When he is injury-free, he is a very valuable pitcher. However, signing Burnett is a sizeable risk. The Yankees can afford to sink five years and 82.5 million into him because their budgetary restrictions are pretty well non-existent. The Blue Jays wanted him, but it didn’t make sense to offer him that kind of money or length of contract when they are on a fixed budget. Really, this is more a sad commentary on the economics of baseball than anything else. Over the course of his stay in New York, Blue Jays fans will probably cry when he pitches a gem against the Jays, and laugh knowingly when he goes on the D.L for months at a time with a “sore elbow”. With A.J Burnett, it’s feast or famine. For the price he was asking, the Blue Jays couldn’t have afforded to keep him around. I’ll still miss his roller-coaster ride starts.

Proven Wrong

2008-12-12T19:02:00.000-08:00

So I write my first piece of the re-launch about how the Raptors are not destined for greatness and they go out and slap New Jersey around to the tune of 101-79. Sure makes me look an idiot. In this case, I hope I'm wrong.

Evaluating the Raptors

2008-12-12T17:02:00.000-08:00

It may be early in the season but it’s not too soon to begin passing judgment on the Toronto Raptors. There are two ways to look at their performance so far. They are either a good team that is vastly underperforming or they are a team that entered the season with unrealistically high expectations. I think the answer is closer to the latter than it is to the former. They aren’t as bad as their record would indicate but they also aren’t going to be winning 50 games with the roster they have. So far, the Raptors have received outstanding play from one player (Chris Bosh), very good play from another (Jose Calderon) and very little of value from anyone else.

As a team, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are giving up 102.0 points per game and, more tellingly, rank 23^rd overall in defensive efficiency. The reasons for this are myriad but come down primarily to two: weak perimeter defending and an inability to rebound. One of their two best offensive players, Jose Calderon, is being torched by every player he guards. When Calderon gets beat, someone has to come with help and smart point guards are kicking it out to wide open shooters. Also, their best outside shooter, and someone they desperately need on the floor to really make their offense click, couldn’t guard me. If Jason Kapono could just stay in front of his man once in a while, he could play more meaningful minutes and be the shooter they so desperately need.

Their failure to rebound is pretty remarkable considering they often play a lineup with three 7 footers in it. The stats don’t lie though: the Raptors are 23^rd in defensive rebound rate. Games against Orlando and Boston in particular have produced lopsided rebounding lines. I would suggest the main problem here can once again be tied to the perimeter defense. When penetration occurs there has to be help from one of the big men. If a rebound comes from the shot attempt, the big men are out of position because they came to help.

With such poor defending, the Raptors would have to be scoring at a prodigious rate to be winning their fair share of games. Unfortunately, they are not. They are only 20^th in the league in offensive efficiency. Chris Bosh is having an absolutely outstanding season but Andrea Bargnani has not taken the step forward the team needs him to. He has been more aggressive in bringing the ball to the basket, but he is still taking a lot of ill-advised jumpers. For that matter, Jermaine O’Neal has been a bit of a disappointment offensively and Anthony Parker has been atrocious. Overall, Parker is shooting less than 40% from the field.

All in all, not a lot of bright spots for the Raptors so far this season. The emergence of Chris Bosh as a bonafide superstar is about all Raps fans have to cheer for. I don’t think the outlook is all doom and gloom though. Bargnani has shown flashes of brilliance, if maddening inconsistency with his jumper and the play of Joey Graham in recent games has been nothing short of a revelation. That being said, their entire fate rests on the shoulders of Jermaine O’Neal. If O’Neal can find his way back to his form from ’05-06 when he averaged 20 points a game while shooting 47 percent from the field, the Raptors will make it to 45 wins or so. If he doesn’t get back to that, or, more likely, if he gets hurt again, the Raptors will struggle to 40. The coach has been thrown under the bus. The clock is now ticking on the man who assembled the team. Eighteen months ago, when the Raptors were fresh off their first Atlantic Division title, seems so long ago now.

I'm Coming Back...

2008-12-12T13:33:00.001-08:00

I've decided to dust the cobwebs off this baby and get it back into gear. I'm changing the format slightly to be an all-sports blog. First post will be up later tonight. This is going to be fun.

Second Half Review and Preview, Part II: N.L

2008-07-16T21:57:00.001-07:00

The second part of my season in review is upon us. I hope you all are enjoying the site’s change in appearance. I’m going for something of a minimalist look these days. I’ve been really pleased with how many people have been checking my work out, so if you like what you’re seeing so far, please tell a friend.

We’ll kick things off in the National League’s East division.

N.L EAST:

It used to be that you could count on three things in life: Death, taxes and the Atlanta Braves winning the N.L East. However, those days now seem long gone. Unless there is a minor miracle, this will be the third consecutive season that a team other than the Braves has won the N.L East after more than a decade of Atlanta supremacy. The Phillies and Mets look poised to do battle all the way until the very end of the year with Atlanta and Florida fighting to stay at .500. The Washington Nationals will just get their asses handed to them.

The knock on the Phillies has always been that they live and die by their offense, slugging out 10-9 wins. This year, that isn’t actually true. Their offense has remained impressive, ranking 2^nd in the N.L in runs scored, but their pitching has actually held its own with a team ERA of 3.90. It would surprise no one then that the Phillies have the second best run differential in the N.L and fourth best in all of baseball. Put two and two together and you’ve got to believe the Phillies are going to make a run in the second half. With their three headed monster in Burrell, Utley and Howard, the Phillies should never be short for runs. Now that the pitching staff has got it together, thanks to Cole Hamels and a ridiculous bullpen, I expect the Phillies to wind up around 95 wins.

After last year’s epic collapse, the Mets felt they had no choice to shake things up. Bringing in the best pitcher in all of baseball is a pretty good way to shake things up. The Mets started the season as if they were half asleep but since that time, they’ve turned things around nicely. The pitching is humming along with a team ERA of 3.95 and they are 4^th in the N.L in runs at 460. Johan has been great (2.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) and the supporting cast has been good enough to keep the Mets close until the bullpen can come in and do their job. Wagner, Schoeneweiss, Feliciano and Joe Smith are all having solid seasons out of the ‘pen. The offensive work is done mostly by David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltra. After a less than stellar year in 2007, it’s nice to see Reyes really getting it done this year. I think the Mets really get it going in the second half fight the Phillies tooth and nail to 95 wins.

The Braves and Marlins should fight closely for the third spot. The Marlins have a very promising young core with Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Willingham, Cody Ross, Jorge Cantu and Mike Jacobs all under the age of 30. If they could just find some pitching to help Ricky Norasco and Scott Olsen, who have been solid if unspectacular, they could turn this division into a three horse race. I think we’ll hear from Florida again soon.

The Braves, meanwhile, continue their slow slide into oblivion. Jair Jurrens and Tim Hudson has kept their pitching near the top of the N.L but their offense is a three man show: Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira. Everyone else on the Braves has, well, failed to hit the ball. Gregor Blanco and Jeff Francoeur in particular have been doing more harm than good. With Hudson and Jones aging, I think this season is only the tip of the iceberg. The Braves will barely make it to 80 wins this year and probably less in the years to come.

The Washington Nationals...no. Just ,no.

N.L CENTRAL:

The Central is home to probably the best team in baseball, the Chicago Cubs, a couple of wild card contenders, Milwaukee Brewers and St.Louis Cardinals, and then a whole bunch of nobodies. The Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros all have approximately a zero percent chance of winning the division. They might even have a negative chance, if it were possible.

The Cubs have just about everything going for them right now. They have the best offense in the N.L as well as the third best pitching staff by team ERA. And that was before they added flamethrower Rich Harden. Ever since Jim Edmonds drank from the Holy Grail, how else has his miraculous turn around really been possible, the Cubs are boasting 6, 6!, regulars with OPS over .830. (For the suffering Blue Jays fans out there, we don’t have a single, not one, hitter with an OPS over .830. Woo! Go jays!). I don’t think Ryan Dempster will keep pitching a full run below his career ERA but if Harden stays healthy, there is no way the Cubs don’t win 100 games and probably the National Leage. It’s a good time to be a Cubs fan.

The Brewers and Cardinals may not really challenge the Cubs, but they should wage a good battle for the Wild Card. The Cardinals are getting another monstrous season from Albert Pujols but a lot of their success is due to the surprising play of Ryan Ludwick and the resurgence of Troy Glaus. Besides Kyle Lohse and his surprising 3.39 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the rest of the pitching staff has been mediocre. For this reason, I can’t see the Cardinals holding off the Brewers down the homestretch. They are simply too thin pitching-wise. The Cardinals will finish with 85-90 wins, well above what any reasonable person could have expected from them at the start of the year.

With the addition of CC Sabathia, the Brew Crew is going to win the Wild Card. I’m calling it now. Their offensive core, with Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart and J.J Hardy will score runs. Fielder, in fact, is still performing below his career averages and I think he’ll keep getting better as the season goes on. Ben Sheets, and now CC, will provide superb pitching and Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will be just decent enough to win some games. Their bullpen has also received some stellar performances from Brian Shouse and Salomon Torres. If those two keep their career years going, there’s nothing else stopping Milwaukee.

The other three teams in the N.L Central all have some strong suits but glaring weaknesses. The Pirates score a ton of runs, but also sport a team ERA of 5.24. That is unsightly. Cincinnati and Houston are only marginally better with 4.43 and 4.49 respectively. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh at least have light at the end of tunnel with young stars like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit for the Pirates and Edison Volquez, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips for the Reds. The Astros are Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and a bunch of spare parts. Even Roy Oswalt has been underwhelming this year. It’s a tough time to be an Astros fan.

N.L WEST:

The West has been the worst division in baseball. The division leading Diamondbacks are under .500. The second place Dodgers are 46-49 and still well within range of a division title. Hell, even the 40-55 Giants could make a claim to have playoff aspirations. San Diego’s 37-58 record leaves them only 10 games out of first.

The Diamondbacks are the team with the most hope of this sorry lot. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are superb pitchers. The team pitching has been very respectable on the whole, with a 3.92 team ERA. The offense, however, has not. Chris Young and Eric Byrnes have been terrible and no one is having a particularly stellar season to replace them. Conor Jackson is having the best of them but while his .846 OPS is strong, it’s nothing to write home about. The Diamondbacks, with their current rotation in which the mummified body of Randy Johnson is pitching 200 innings per season, are a big bat away from breaking out. I think they finish in the 85 win range on the back of Haren and Webb. They’ll win the division of crappiness.

The Dodgers have two of the worst contracts in all of baseball: Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre. Their other major problem: this guy has 107 at-bats, this guy has 266 and this guy has 285. That, my friends, is a lot of outs. If it wasn’t for their pitching, N.L leading 3.64 ERA, this team would be absolutely nowhere. They are, in a lot of ways, the Toronto Blue Jays of the National League. The only difference between the two teams is the division they play in. In the A.L East, a sub 500 record gets you fourth place and fans calling for the G.M’s head. In the N.L West, you have a great shot at a division title. The Dodgers will fall in the 80-85 win range and just miss the playoffs behind the Diamondbacks.

The San Francisco Giants have Tim Lincecum and that’s about it. Jose Sanchez and Matt Cain have shown signs of promise but nothing to indicate a great turn around any time soon. The Giants need to revamp their entire offense before they get anywhere. They’ll win about 70 games this year.

The feel-good stories of last year, the Colorado Rockies, are not feeling so good this year. Matt Holliday is having another monster season, .975 OPS, and the Rockies are scoring runs in bunches. Their pitching, however, has been terrifying to watch. Aaron Cook is the only one doing respectable work. His 3.57 ERA and 1.28 WHIP are both career bests, but no one else in their starting rotation has an ERA below 4. Most notably, Jeff Francis has been beaten around to the tune of a 5.17 ERA. It’s amazing how a 22 game winning streak makes people forget you don’t have any pitching.

Did you know that Jake Peavy is having a better season offensively than the Padres’ starting shortstop and both of their catchers?That about sums their season up. If they make it to 75 wins, it’ll be a miracle.

I hope you guys enjoyed my look into baseball’s first half of the season. I’ll be back with another column Friday evening.

Second Half Review and Preview, Part I: A.L

2008-07-15T12:18:00.000-07:00

First off, thank you once again to everyone that has been reading the site so far. It’s been a pleasure writing the articles and I hope you guys have enjoyed reading them. I apologize for the delay in getting this article out. I was planning on writing something short, but it came out as a bit of a magnum opus. I hope you guys like reading about baseball!

As usual, if it so pleases you, leave a comment at the bottom of the article or e-mail me at noheartball@gmail.com. Finally, if you like what I’m doing, tell a friend.

I’ll divide the preview division by division. It’s a fairly in-depth process, with a team by team analysis, so the column will once again appear in two parts. Part I today and Part II on Wednesday. There should be a lot to look forward to in the coming months, so strap yourselves in.

A.L EAST:

The American League East has been one of the most fascinating divisions in all of baseball through the first half of the season. Most people expected the Red Sox and Yankees to run away with the division, with the Blue Jays possibly challenging if you were a deluded member of the Toronto media. However, Tampa Bay has seemingly come out of nowhere to make this interesting. I know they have lost their last 7 games. That is not a good thing. I still think they have a great shot to win 90-95 games and make life miserable for Boston and the Yanks. Their biggest strength is their pitching, which has been uniformly strong. Scott Kazmir, when healthy, has been excellent but James Shields, Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza all surprisingly have sub-4.00 ERAs with reasonable WHIPs. If some of their offensive players like Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford round back into form and Eric Hinske continues his resurrection, the Rays will contend.

I feel I don’t even need to write about the Red Sox and yet I will. When Big Papi comes back, their offense will be stupid good again. J.D Drew, Mike Lowell, Manny Ramirez and Kevin Youkilis have been so good that they are making up for the horrific seasons that Lugo, Ellsbury and in particular Varitek are having. Their pitching is also stacked with Beckett, Dice-K , Papelbon and friends striking fear into the hearts of opposing hitters. It would be a major surprise if the Sawx didn’t run away with the division.

I’ve already a fairly in-depth piece about the Jays, but in case you missed it, I called for 80-84 wins and a fourth place finish in the division. If Halladay is serious about moving on if the Jays don’t build a contender, J.P better get his act together ASAP.

The Orioles are a lot better than I thought they would be. I don’t think they will quite keep up the pace they have set for themselves but the future looks bright with Nick Markakis, Luke Scott and Adam Jones. Markakis in particular has been having a great season to the tune of an .892 OPS and 14 Home Runs. Brian Roberts is also having another solid year, but I can’t help but wonder if the Orioles aren’t wasting his prime years. If they can find some good pitching prospects, they might be well served to make a move. Speaking of the pitching, they need to do something about it. Their lone bright spot has been Jeremy Guthrie and his solid 3.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. I’ll describe their rest of their pitchers in one word: Yikes. Bonus: Adam Jones profile picture on ESPN.com is pure gold. . How did he let that be put up?

The other perennial power in the A.L East is the New York Yankees. As usual, the Yankees boast some of the highest priced talent in all of baseball. With their offensive talents, their pitching should only have to be mediocre for the Yaks to be powerhouses. The pitching has mostly been there, including notable performances by Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera and the miracle resurrection of Mike Mussina. However, the offensive talent hasn’t quite been performing up to snuff. I’m not suggesting they won’t make a run but a lot of the guys they are paying big bucks are not delivering. The two biggest busts so far are Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, though I will admit Cano has maybe turned the corner. However, the relative underachievement of the Yankees is not just on these two. The skipper himself, Derek Jeter, has played poorly so far this year. A .740 OPS is simply not going to do it when you are being paid 21 million dollars a year. If Jeter, now 34, is in a decline phase, then the Yankees are in big trouble. If he comes back around, maybe they make a run to the playoffs. Giambi and A-Rod are carrying this team so far. Mr. Jeter, the ball is in your court. My guess is they put it together, but maybe not quite all the way and end up in the 90-95 win range.

A.L CENTRAL:

The Central was supposedly going to be a battle between Detroit and Cleveland for supremacy. Today, those predictions seem particularly backwards when one considers Detroit’s .500 record and Cleveland’s not so stellar 41-53 showing. I’ll start with the biggest surprise of the division: the Chicago White Sox. After last year’s debacle, no one expected them to be first in their division this late in the season, not to mention contending for the best record in baseball. The main reason for their success is the pitching staff’s return to its 2005 form. Led by second year starter John Danks and his 2.67 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, the White Sox have the second best team ERA in the A.L at a sparkling 3.57. Gavin Floyd and Mark Buerhle have also contributed strong seasons and, until his injury, Bobby Jenks had been solid out of the bullpen. Their offense has been resting mostly on the shoulders of Jermaine Dye, Carlos Quentin, and Jim Thome. Dye and Thome are proven, if aging, commodities but Quentin has been a bit of a surprise. With no one else having an OPS over .800, and only Nick Swisher as a possible candidate to turn it up in the second half, the Sox will need everything they can get out of Thome, Dye and Quentin. I think they will falter a little along the way and end with around 90 wins.

I will go out on a limb and say that the Twins are a fluke at this stage in the season. They are ridiculously thin offensively, with Morneau and Mauer doing almost all the heavy lifting and their pitching isn’t too hot either. Kevin Slowey, and his magnificent 4.69 K/BB ratio,might one day become the ace that they need, but he’s not quite there yet. Joe Nathan has been his usual spectacular self out of the bullpen but I just don’t see it with these guys. I think in a couple of years Delmon Young might be really good, but he’s not there yet. When he’s been in the lineup, Nick Punto has been solid as well, but again, the Twins are a year or two away. I think they fade and end up with about 80 wins.

Detroit was the team that everyone picked at the start of the season to win the division and maybe even the A.L and then the World Series. They came out of the gate absolutely awfully and have been struggling to recover since then. As would be expected, their pitching has been mediocre at best, ranking 11^th in the A.L in team ERA. However, the team’s overall failure so far can be directly attributed to an offense that stalled for large chunks of the season. With the exception of the surprising Marcus Thames, everyone has under-performed. Magglio’s .861 OPS is below his career average and certainly below last season’s fabulous year, Curtis Granderson’s .838 is good but again, not what was expected and Miguel Cabrera’s .837 is well below what was needed. I haven’t even mentioned the absolutely awful season that Gary Sheffield is having, or the even worse one that Edgar Renteria is putting together. I don’t see their pitching getting much better, but maybe the offense will kick into gear long enough for the Tigers to make a run at the division. I think they get it going and finish in the 92-93 win area.

The poor, poor Royals of Kansas City just break my heart. They haven’t been awful this year, but aside from Zach Greinke and David DeJesus, the Royals have been a giant pile of mediocrity. Their prized draft pick, Alex Gordon, hasn’t exactly been lighting it up and there’s no reason to believe Joey Gathright will improve his horrific .570 OPS. I applaud the Royals for over-achieving thus far, but I think they are going to fall on their faces in the second half. I foresee something in the 70-75 win range as the resurgent Tigers, in particular, lay a beating on them.

The Cleveland Indians have been the biggest disappointment in the A.L so far this year. They were 1 game away from the World Series last year, but this year they aren’t even going to smell the playoffs. CC Sabathia was terrible at the start of the year and their offense, once feared, has been nothing to write home about. Besides Grady Sizemore’s excellence, and Ben Fransisco’s surprising play, the rest of the Cleveland Indians have faltered badly. It’s hard to lay the blame on one person; it’s just been an all-around failure. This team has a lot of talent, so I’ll write this half off as an anomaly, but they are so far back that the post season is just a dream.

A.L WEST:

The division leading Anaheim Angels are a one trick pony, but it is one hell of a trick. Vladimir Guerrero is the only one carrying this offense so runs have been scarce. Meanwhile, their pitching has been fabulous. John Lackey has been great and Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana have been having the first half of their lives. Both of their ERA’s are more than a run lower than their career averages. I’m inclined to believe this will continue for Santana because of his fabulous K/BB ratio but Saunders is a little more worrisome. Weaver and Garland have been more than adequate 4^th and 5^th starters and K-Rod has been, well, K-Rod. The pitching will never be the problem, but unless they find someone, anyone, to help Vladimir, the Angels will always contend but never win it all. They’ll probably still win the division with 90-95 wins.

I should preface the Oakland section by saying that Billy Beane is some sort of miracle man. Oakland has somehow stayed in contention despite dealing away proven commodity after proven commodity. Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, and, in particular, Justin Duchsherer have far exceeded expectations and kept the A’s staff as one of the best in all of baseball. However, with the departure of Rich Harden, I can’t imagine they will continue on a winning pace this year. Their offence is even worse than the Angels. It’s unwise to bet against Billy Beane, but when Jack Cust’s .815 OPS is leading the way and you just dealt your ace for prospects, the season might be in the toilet. I think the A’s will find a way to win 80 games but no more.

The Texas Rangers are the complete opposite of the A’s and Angels. Their offense is outstanding, boasting studs such as Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Milton Bradley but their pitching cannot be described in a friendly manner. Their supposed best starter, Vincente Padilla, has a 4.70 ERA. The Rangers have surprised to the tune of a 50-46 record, but their pitching is so horrible that I can’t see them keeping it up. If someone made a mash of the Angels starting pitchers and the Rangers hitters, the creation would be absolutely unstoppable. Until then, the Rangers are going to be stuck trying to slug out 10-9 wins

I just have two things to say about Seattle’s season so far. This guy is your best hitter. And this guy has pitched almost 120 innings so far this year.

Yikes.

Part II comes tomorrow!

Blue Jays Mid-Season Report Card

2008-07-11T20:31:00.001-07:00

Seeing as how I’m a Blue Jays fan and all, I thought I would give my thoughts on their season up until this point. I watched the game tonight before rendering my final verdict. I should say that though the outcome didn’t really affect my opinion of the Jays’ season, it only furthered my admiration for Roy Halladay. And in some ways it furthered my sympathy for him. Every year, the Doc goes out and gives the Jays quality start after quality start and he constantly gets rewarded with mediocre team after mediocre team. If anyone on the Jays deserves a team that can actually compete for the playoffs, it’s Halladay.

I’ll divide the report card into sub-categories and highlight the performance of individuals that I feel are particularly relevant to the grade their category was assigned. Kind of how in the way that David Eckstein and Marco Scutaro are relevant to the Jays slugging .382 as a team.

Pitching:

A cursory glance at the Jays’ pitching numbers reveals this as their true strength. Their team ERA at 3.70, puts them fourth in all of baseball. It’s not smoke and mirrors either. Their team WHIP, Ks/9 and K/BB are all top 10 in MLB. Their biggest strength in this regard has been their starting pitching. Halladay’s numbers are all superb, but expected, so I won’t even list them here. It’s been the work of Shaun Marcum (until his injury) , Jesse Litsch and Scott Downs that have been even better than expected. Marcum’s 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 3.19 K/BB are all superb and way up from where he was last year. If Marcum comes back pitching strongly after the All-Star break, he could turn out to be a vital key to any Blue Jays success down the road.

Litsch worries me a bit more than Marcum, even more so because of his swoon of late. Since his gem against Oakland on May 29^th, he’s been having a rough go of it. His ERA has jumped from 3.18 up to 4.01. However, he is still putting strong numbers, especially for a projected number 5 starter. Additionally, with a salary of less than $400,000, he is one of the biggest bargains on the roster.

Downs has been absolutely lights out coming out of the bullpen. He has somehow transformed himself from a pitcher with a career 4.14 ERA into a highly dependable setup man. I admit that last season worked out well, but looking at Downs’ career numbers before that, there was no reason to believe it was nothing more than aberration. His 7.80 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP are both solid indicators that his solid season could well continue.

While Halladay has been brilliant as expected and Downs, Litsch and Marcum have all exceeded expectations, not all of the Blue Jays pitchers are contributing in the same way. A.J Burnett in particular has been a source of frustration for any loyal Jays fan. His “stuff” may be excellent but he’s been beaten around like a rag doll this year to the tune of a 5.23 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. That would be bad for a number 5 starter, let alone a supposed number 2. Since he is probably leaving at the end of the year, anything the Blue Jays can get in return for him should be welcome.

Overall Grade for Pitching: A

Hitting:

Anyone who follows the Blue Jays is aware of their well documented problems scoring runs. I’ll just throw out a couple of numbers to highlight that fact. They rank second last in the A.L in runs scored, third from the bottom in slugging percentage and 9^th in OPS. Their biggest weakness is the complete and utter inability to hit the long ball. They are dead last in the American League in home runs hit at 62.

So who’s responsible for these numbers? From a positive stand point, and for the Jays offense there isn’t much, Joe Inglett has impressed in his playing time. His .818 OPS leads the team and his .367 OBP puts him second on the club. The more at-bats Cito finds for Inglett, the better. Rolen’s .807 OPS is pretty alright too but after that there’s no one else above .800. To give you an idea of how bad this is, there are two teams in the A.L, Boston and Texas that have TEAM OPS over .800. The Blue Jays don’t need to be that much of an offensive juggernaut to succeed given how strong their pitching is, but I think an adequate description for the Jays’ offense this year is kitten-like. They’re just so cute and cuddly!

Why the disturbingly low offensive output? The people most responsible for this are David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill. Between the three of them, they have managed to hit 5 home runs, 37 doubles and 1 triple in almost 700 at-bats. This, my friends , is a problem. It is a particularly big problem since none of them is extraordinarily good at getting on base. Eckstein’s .360 OBP and Scutaro’s .351 are OKAY but Aaron Hill’s is a putrid .324. The biggest upgrade the Jays could make would be in taking the bats out of the hands of these three players.

Overall Grade for Hitting: D-

Management:

While a team only succeeds or fails as much as its players succeed or fail, the people responsible for putting a team together are evaluated based on the successes or failures of these same players. Since J.P Riccardi is the face of management, he is the one on trial here as it were.

His biggest moves this past offseason were the signing of Rios to a long-term contract extension, re-upping Scott Downs, and bringing in Rolen and Eckstein. I would say two of those moves were successes, one was a wash and one was a failure. Rios has struggled this year, but one has to assume the first 90 or so games of this season are less indicative of his seasons to come than his two seasons’ worth of work before that. He seemed to turning into a .850 to .875 OPS type of guy with solid defence to boot. Those aren’t superstar numbers, but I’d want him on my team and J.P signed him to a reasonable contract.

Riccardi’s other success was the re-upping of Scott Downs. I’ve already been over my appreciation for Downs’ work, so I won’t go over that again, but his contract is also very reasonable. So, once again, I will give credit where credit is due.

If Riccardi deserves praise so too does he deserve criticism. The acquisition of David Eckstein has been an absolute disaster. The man can’t hit or play defence to save his life. How many times has he one hopped throws across the diamond? The only thing he has going for him is that he is “gritty”. This is a nice way of saying he’s 5”6 and sucks at baseball. David Eckstein must go for the Blue Jays to be successful.

Furthermore, Riccardi’s failure to recognize the Blue Jays desperate offensive needs is baffling. Vernon Wells is an alright hitter but not someone you want to pin your offensive hopes on. The same applies for Lyle Overbay and a now aging Scott Rolen. There is no way anyone could have objectively looked at their lineup at the start of the season and say their offence would be good enough to win the division. Projected starters Gregg Zaun, Eckstein, Hill and Stewart are all offensive black holes. In failing to address their glaring need for power, Riccardi hamstrung what could have otherwise been a promising season. It might be time for the slick-haired one to move on.

Overall Grade for Management: C

Overall Team Grade: C+

The main reason for the above grade is that so much could be made out of this Blue Jays team. A lot of the pieces are there so their performance is slightly disappointing, but had to be expected when their offense was objectively examined. The core of a good team is certainly there, but without the infusion of one or two power bats, and I’m talking a Vlad Guerrero type player here, there is little hope of the post-season. As far as the rest of the season goes, I imagine it will end with 80-84 wins and hopefully big changes at season’s end. Being a Jays fan is certainly frustrating, but hey, I could be a Royals fan.

All-Star Game: Picks and Snubs Part II

2008-07-09T15:10:00.000-07:00

Thanks a lot to those of you who took the time to read part I of the article. If you’re new to the blog, just scroll down to the bottom of the page and you can catch up in no time. As usual, I can be reached at noheartball@gmail.com or leave a comment below the article. I’ll follow the same format as last time, except possibly with more incredulity as there were some real doozies on the N.L side of things.

Definitely Should Have Been There:

Pat Burrell:

I’m not sure what more Pat the Bat could have done to get on the All-Star team this year. He is currently second among National League outfielders in OPS and first in home runs. He doesn’t just hit for power either, he is second among all N.L outfielders in On-Base Percentage at .409. The man does not make outs. I will grant you that he isn’t known for his defence, but Matt Holliday isn’t exactly a defensive stalwart himself and he made the team with nearly identical numbers. In fact, Burrell has 8 more HRs than Holliday. And that’s just pointing how well Burrell compares to the BEST offensive outfielders in the N.L. I haven’t even mentioned the inclusion of Kosuke Fukudome and his just-above-average .811 OPS. Burrell is OBLITERATING Fukudome in every meaningful statistical category. Congratulations Cubs fans, you really pulled a fast one here.

J.J Hardy / Jose Reyes:

I have absolutely no idea why Miguel Tejada is ahead of either of these guys. Miguel’s chugging along with a .764 OPS and 10 homers, respectable enough numbers for a shortstop, but Hardy and Reyes check in at .857 with 12 homers and .842 with 9 homers respectively. If I had to pick between Hardy and Reyes, it would be a tough choice but I think I’d go with Hardy because he’s shown more power this year and Reyes has been a butcher in the field to the tune of 12 errors already this year. If you wanted to tell me that Reyes was better because of his base stealing abilities I wouldn’t argue too much with you though. The gist is that somebody should be replacing Tejada here.

Jason Bay:

Bay has been having a monster season with 17 homers and a .922 OPS as of this writing. His exclusion from the team is particularly head-scratching when you consider that his teammate Nate McLouth is essentially going in his place. Bay is ahead of McLouth in every meaningful statistical category and most importantly holds a large lead in the OBP department. McLouth has been playing well but Bay has just simply been better, especially of late. He’s also ahead of Soriano and Braun, who were named as starters, in almost every single offensive category. What does a good old Canadian boy have to do to make it to the mid-summer classic?

Any Living Organism Instead of Brian Wilson:

Much like the Varitek selection, Brian Wilson’s All-Star game appearance is mind blowing. He has been the epitome of average with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and his pedestrian 2.44K/BB ratio. Now. I realize that he has 24 saves and that somehow, in the minds of some, this makes up for everything cited above. You know what it means that Wilson has 24 saves with the kind of numbers that I just mentioned? That any average major league pitcher, thrust into Wilson’s role, could have 24 saves. Wilson is perfectly mediocre, he just happens to be mediocre during the ninth inning of Giants games instead of the 6^th or 7^th inning like most other relief pitchers.

An Argument Could Be Made:

Johan Santana:

Johan isn’t having his usual A+ season but his numbers, 2.96 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 3.41K/BB ratio are still near the very top of the league. As with John Danks from the other column, the only reason I can really see for Santana’s exclusion is his meagre win-loss record. At 7-7 he isn’t blowing the competition away, but that’s more a product of the Mets struggling offensively than Santana being sub-par. He’s still been one of the best pitchers in the National League for the first half of the season but I guess this once someone else will take his usual spot at the All-Star Game.

Cole Hamels:

Hamels might actually be having a better season than Santana with only his ERA, 3.22 to 2.96, trailing Johan’s. Hamels has a 1.02 WHIP and opponents are hitting just .209 against him. .209! That’s crazy good. Volquez, Lincecum, Haren and Zambrano are all having great season so far, but for my money, Hamels is outclassing Ryan Dempster by a bit and Aaron Cook by an even larger margin. Hamels could pitch on my all-star team any day.

Adam Dunn:

That’s right, I’m going there. I think Adam Dunn could be an All-Star. We all need to get over our fear of his terrible batting average. I am aware that he is hitting .228. I know that he has struck out 93 times already. 93 is a lot of times. I am going to propose that this is all irrelevant because he has an OBP of .386. That’s right .386. That puts him 23^rd in all of baseball and 10^th amongst outfielders. He simply does not make a lot of outs. He also hits for power; a lot of power. Adam Dunn has hit 22 homers already this season, which ties him for fourth in all of baseball. Adam Dunn, let me just say that if I was running the Jays, you would be more than welcome. Lord knows the Blue Jays could use a half decent bat or two.

And that does it for my All-Star Game write-up. I hope you guys enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. Once again, I would encourage everyone to leave a comment if you feel so inclined, or to send me an e-mail at noheartball@gmail.com. If you like what I’m doing so far, tell a friend!

That Adam Dunn section is actually a nice segue into my plan for Friday. As a Blue Jays fan, I feel obligated to share my feelings on their season so far, so Friday will be something of a mid-season report card. Let’s just say J.P Riccardi doesn’t score too high. Hope to see you then!

Stats Explanation

2008-07-08T08:21:00.000-07:00

After reading yesterday's post, one of my friends kindly pointed out that not everyone was going to know what I was talking about when I wrote OPS or WHIP. Here's a link to Baseball Prospectus' definition of all those crazy acronyms I've been using:

http://baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?context=1&category=true

If any of you have any other questions about what I'm writing, feel free to use the comments at the bottom of the articles, or shoot me an e-mail at noheartball@gmail.com

NB

All-Star Game: Picks and Snubs Part I

2008-07-07T17:36:00.000-07:00

The rosters for the All-Star game were announced yesterday evening. The rosters for the game can be found here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/news/story?id=3475091
and here: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar08/news/story?id=3475090

As usual, the fans were responsible for choosing the starters for the mid-summer classic. It only makes sense then that most of the craziness took place here. I’m not going to argue the merits of having the fans choose the representatives but instead I will take a look at which players were passed over that might have been more deserving than those that were chosen, be they as starters or reserves. I am also writing this article with the caveat that until the 32nd player is chosen to fill out the roster I can't assume any of the players listed below will make the team. There will be two categories that the players will fall into depending on how flagrant their omission was: Definitely Should Have Been There and An Argument Could Be Made.

Definitely Should Have Been There:

Jason Giambi

This selection shouldn’t be misunderstood as my condoning the usage of performance enhancing drugs or that crazy ass mustache he’s sporting. That thing terrifies me. In the end, you simply can’t deny the results that Giambi has achieved this season. He has the most home runs of any first baseman in the A.L and has the highest OPS, by a fairly large margin. Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis, the two first basemen selected, have been good, checking in with OPS of .850 and .916 as of this writing but Giambi is up at .929. And Giambi is not just doing it with power either. His .393 OBP is actually higher than Youkilis’ and quite a bit higher than Morneau’s. The only knock against Giambi is his glove but I think his numbers are just so much better that he overcomes his defensive shortcomings.

A.J Pierzynski:

It’s not that A.J is having all that great of a season, but somebody, anybody should replace Jason Varitek here. Varitek’s numbers aren’t just a little bad, they are VERY bad. You know what the weirdest thing about this is? He wasn’t even voted in by the fans. Frankly I’m flabbergasted. I know he’s the Red Sox leader blah blah blah, but the man is not even remotely helping his team this year. Pierzynski on the other hand is at least contributing a tidy, if unimpressive, .776 OPS and 7 homers. That OPS puts him more than 100 points higher than Varitek. 100 POINTS! These two aren’t even close.

Mike Lowell / Evan Longoria:

This one is almost as mind blowing as the Jason Giambi omission. Lowell and Longoria have pretty much identical splits at .297/.356/.517 and .283/.354/.535 respectively. No one is disputing A-Rod’s spot here but our friend Joe Crede is cruising along at .261/.338/.478, which is considerably worse than either Lowell or Longoria’s. Crede came out absolutely gangbusters but has cooled off noticeably since then and is showing no signs of coming out of his current funk. Meanwhile, Longoria is tearing it up as a rookie and Lowell is producing while maintaining his stellar defence. This one’s a no-brainer.

Jermaine Dye:

Jermaine Dye is absolutely tearing the league apart right now with 19 homers and a strong .919 OPS. He stacks up very favourably compared to any American League outfielder and certainly deserves to be ahead of Ichiro at the very least. I know Ichiro plays superb defence and has a cannon of an arm and that he can bunt and hit for average but his .372 slugging percentage is the opposite of good. The common defence of Ichiro is that his OPS is relatively low because he doesn’t hit for power but gets on-base a lot. Surprise! Jermaine Dye’s OBP is pretty much identical to Ichiro’s this year. Ichiro is having a down year and Dye simply deserves it more.

An Argument Could Be Made:

Brian Roberts:

First off, I should mention that Dustin Pedroia starting in place of Ian Kinsler is mindboggling. The splits aren’t even close: .312/.355/.458 and .332/.391/.545. Case closed. Additionally, Brian Roberts might have a case to be there instead of Pedroia. His .295/.373/.493 splits are just a bit better than Pedroia. They both play solid defense and steal bases well. If I had to choose, I might pick Pedroia because he has 9 HRs versus Roberts’ 6 but I can understand how one could go for Roberts instead.

John Danks:

John Danks isn’t going to the All-Star game because he doesn’t have enough wins, plain and simple. He is currently third in the A.L in ERA and his 1.17 WHIP is nothing to sneeze at. His almost 3:1 K/BB ratio is solid as well. If the White Sox had just scored a few more runs he would almost certainly have the 8 or 9 wins that seem to be necessary to make it to the show this year. The starters that made the team this year are all having great seasons but I think Danks is very comparable to Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders. I guess Danks is just going to get honourable mention this year.

John Lackey /Rich Harden:

These two have very similar pitching lines. Lackey is 6-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while Harden is 5-0 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Lackey’s numbers, in particular, are dominating but Harden’s no slouch himself. The main knock against these two is that they have pitched less innings due to injury. Harden has pitched 77 innings while Lackey has thrown 74.2. With so many deserving pitchers in the A.L this year, I can see why these two got the shaft. However, if they hadn’t missed time due to injury, there would be no argument as to their worthiness.

I’m sure I missed a couple of guys who deserved to be mentioned here so drop me a line in the comment section if you can think of someone who was omitted. Part II comes Wednesday!

2008-07-07T17:17:00.000-07:00

Introduction to the blog

2008-07-07T17:11:00.000-07:00

I figured I should start this project off with a brief layout of what I'll be doing here at No Heart Ball. I owe most of my inspiration to the website http://www.firejoemorgan.com. I played baseball as a kid and grew up a fan of the Blue Jays and of baseball in general, but it was really FJM that got me into the stats side of it. Today, I think of baseball in a completely different way than I did before.

This blog will, hopefully, be a means for me to express my thoughts on the game. The tone will generally be pretty light but with a stats-oriented focus. There's nothing I hate more than analytical platitudes such as "they got by on grit" or "he has the heart of a champion". The less generic the statement the better it is, in my book.

In terms of the format, I'm hoping to write at least three posts a week. My plan was to start with a Monday-Wednesday-Friday format and see how it goes from there. In-between I will probably make smaller posts but that will be time dependent. Monday and Wednesdays will be original content and then I'm hoping that Friday will eventually become a reader e-mail day. I've set up a gmail account for the website: noheartball@gmail.com so I can be reached there with any baseball related questions you might have. I would also encourage anyone with comments to please post them. I will be very liberal with the comments and will do my best not to censor anyone but if your post is overly obscene, I reserve the right to remove it.

I think that about does it in terms of introduction. I hope you guys enjoy reading it as much as I've enjoyed writing it so far.

NB

Thus It Begins

2008-07-06T21:13:00.000-07:00

The first real post will be here tomorrow evening. I hope you're as excited for some baseball blogging as I am.